Sunday, December 31, 2017

Weekly Review - 01st Jan, 2018

Dear All,


The SEBI's decision to allow exchanges to provide equity and commodity trading from next year; and to relax the entry norms for foreign portfolio investors boosted sentiment and Good News for 2018.

Economic Data :-

With the new month ahead, certain domestic data will be released next week. Nikkei manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) will be rolled out on January 2. The services PMI will also be rolled out on January 4, 2018. Official data on M3 money supply will also be released later in the upcoming week as well.

FII Flows :-

Domestic investors continued to be net buyers for December, offering support to the market at a time when FIIs have looked hesitant in this market too. Experts believe that it is this buying by DIIs that has provided the cushion to D-Street. For December, FIIs sold Rs 6,411.57 crore worth of shares, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers worth Rs 8,142.88 crore.

Global Cues :-

The Street will watch out for crucial economic data coming in from developed and other emerging markets. For instance, China, Europe and US will be declaring their manufacturing PMI on January 2, followed by truck sales and services PMI in US and China later in the week. Further, market could take cues from European CPI inflation, along with US employment data.

Crude :-

The Street will watch out for cues on the movement of crude oil. As such, markets have been rattled in the recent past on the back of rising oil prices. Brent crude prices have clocked USD 65-mark and have hovering around the same region. Meanwhile, US crude is also seen rising and settled around USD 60-mark.

Bond Movement :-

Bond yields have been rising in the recent past, largely on the back of inflationary issues as well as rising crude prices. This has, in turn, affected the markets here and got investors cautious of the movements as well.

Last week, the yields had also jumped after the government announced additional borrowing of around Rs 50,000 crore through gilts. The RBI has also swung into action as it cancelled two bond auctions on Friday. Yields were seen stabilizing after that move.

Going forward, experts believe, there could be further hardening on likely reversing of easing cycle by the RBI amid inflationary risks. Government borrowing has also worried investors.

Bitcoin :-

The Street would also look to see the regulatory view on bitcoins, the virtual currency which has witnessed phenomenal gains in the recent past. The currency clocked USD 19,000 during the year, before seeing a sell off, but has settled down from its wild swings.

The Ministry of Finance has cautioned people against investing in virtual currencies and compared them to ponzi schemes.

"There has been a phenomenal increase in recent times in the price of Virtual 'Currencies' (VCs) including bitcoin, in India and globally. The VCs don't have any intrinsic value and are not backed by any kind of assets. The price of bitcoin and other VCs, therefore, is entirely a matter of mere speculation resulting in spurt and volatility in their price."

Moreover, the Ministry of Finance has cautioned people against investing in virtual currencies and compared them to ponzi schemes.

"There has been a phenomenal increase in recent times in the price of Virtual 'Currencies' (VCs) including bitcoin, in India and globally. The VCs don't have any intrinsic value and are not backed by any kind of assets. The price of bitcoin and other VCs, therefore, is entirely a matter of mere speculation resulting in spurt and volatility in their price."

Simultaneously, in a note to clients, Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette and his team made the case that it difficult to ascribe value to the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin can’t be considered a 'real currency' like the U.S. dollar, because the cryptocurrency doesn’t have an interest rate associated with it, i.e. it has no cash flow, Faucette said.


OPINIONS VS FACTS :-

Very few new traders take the step from trading opinions and predictions to trading actual price action and signals. Amateurs take trades based on feelings while professionals have fact based reasons. A signal is a quantifiable reason to take a trade based on its price action, a technical indicator, a trend line, or a price pattern. Even trading the psychology of the market requires price to arrive at a level that aligns with the fear or greed of the masses that the trader is trying to profit from. “Buying a dip” is not a signal while buying a pull back in the Nifty or Bank Nifty Index to the 50 day simple moving average or prices reaching the 30 RSI on a daily chart inside an uptrend over the 200 day simple moving average is a signal based on quantifiable facts. Also any signal should be researched on historical charts or back tested to see the historical profitability of trading off the signal. Historical price patterns tend to repeat over and over and create tradable signals for capturing trends and reversals.

Other types of signals are more discretionary and can rely on pure price action and buying breakouts of price ranges, trend lines, and chart patterns. Trading breakouts of ranges, lines, and patterns are quantifiable but leave a lot of discretion with the trader and are also are difficult to back test. Traders have to stay consistent with how they draw trend lines and identify chart patterns so they do not start seeing what they want to see or read price action is a biased manner to fit their preconceived beliefs. This type of breakout trading is simply trying to capture the beginning of a new trend as price leaves the previous trading range and signals a potential change in trend. Having a reason for taking a trade is still far better than simply trading off a hunch, a belief, a feeling, or a prediction. I personally prefer using more quantified trading signals like price support and resistance levels, moving averages, MACD, and RSI to take out as much of my opinions as possible from my trading decisions.

In trading it is always important to have a specific reason for entering a trade that will put the odds in your favor for potential winning percentage, risk/reward ratio, and a great chance to be on the right side of the trend in your time frame. Trading without quantifiable signals puts your trades at no better than random and on the side of the majority that are trading their internal beliefs instead of the external realities of the price action of the market. You want to replace as much of your discretionary trading as possible with quantifiable signals that give you a specific reason for entering a trade. Beliefs and predictions about what the market will do, should do, or can’t possible do is not a trading system, quantified entries and exits that express a winning trading system is the path to profitability.

>>> Nifty Monthly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On Monthly Basis - It seems we have more Rally Pending till 11400. It doesn't mean that we are going straight on the upper side of the target. Many consolidations and corrections to be met in. It's going to be very interesting year of 2018 - for Stock Market Lovers.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price on a break out may test the upper channel or 10800+.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If this is a 5th and last leg of rally - Price still have rally pending.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Resistance @ 10550-570 if breaks above Fresh Rally Possible.

>>> Bank Nifty Monthly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last 2 month candles sticks are showing in-decisions.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Weekly Chart - Facing resistance from the trend line.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last Leg, might be inside a triangle.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Resistance 25780 - if not crossed - might see a correction till channel support.

>>> DrReddy's Lab - Posted on 27th Dec, 2017 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted on 27th Dec, 2017 and Holding Long.

>>> INFRATEL - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Profit Rs.17000/-

>>> BEML - Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Waiting for a Wedge break out - We are Long.

>>> Performance for the Month end of Dec 2017 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision

>>> N4A & Whatsapp <<<

Send registration request with name and location.















Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Expiry Day ? Will Bear Make an Entry ???

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Will this Resistance and Correction help the bear this time to enter the market. Expiry day has the answer. We have no Position now.

>>> DrReddy - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Long and expecting a Broader Rally. Cheers!!!

Monday, December 25, 2017

Weekly Review - 26th Dec, 2017

Dear All,


Post BJP Win on Gujarat Election, Nifty tested all time high, Its time to re-evaluate the trend in many other ways. So many alternatives and possibilities are discussed here. Since I am travelling - Can't discuss all the Indices and Stocks. Only NIFTY this week.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart - Alternative One <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

First Alternative - Must Hold above 10490-95 and if crosses above 10530 may trigger another 300 Points Rally.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart - Alternative Two <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Second Alternative - May be @ ABCDE - Possible Resistance @ 10490 - 10530 - 10665.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart - Alternative Three <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart - Give is a Bearish Scenario Alternative. If Price failed to hold above 10495 - a Deep correction may test Gujarat Election Results Day Low - Can't be ruled out.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart - Alternative Four <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

This alternative shows - a Supper rally till 10600 and 10740.

>>> N4A-Whatsapp <<<

Send your Name and Location for registration.




Thursday, December 21, 2017

CAT on a WALL between 10495 to 10410

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Between 10495 - 10410.


>>> Bank NIfty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Support @ 25500 & 25450.




Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Resistance @ 10490-95

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above 10490-95 - Rally may continue.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Might be an H&S - We have shorts. Cheers!!!


Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Crossed Above 10440 > Still Need Confirmation from Bulls.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price Breaks above 10440 > Though need some confirmation - like Channel and Previous High as shown above.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Like Nifty - Bank Nifty might be an Complicated Correction - If So - Expect Price may Get resisted Near 25800. Cross above may trigger fresh rally. Cheers!!!

Monday, December 18, 2017

Resistance @ 10440

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart - Booked Profit today <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked out Long with Rs.28500/-. Key Resistance @ 10440.

>> DRREDDYS LAB - Hourly Chart - Posted Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Rs.20,000/- Profit. No Holdings now.

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Weekly Review - 18th December 2017

Dear All,


Most of the exit polls suggest a victory for the BJP in the state elections in Gujarat. A victory for the BJP will be received well by the market while a surprise defeat would be a large negative surprise for the market.

All eyes are on Monday when the actual election results will be announced. Most experts do see a fresh high on Monday at least but a bounce back could be followed by profit booking.

The index witnessed some bit of selling pressure at higher levels on Friday and most of the good news is already in the price. Hence, in the event of BJP making a clean sweep in Assembly elections results of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, markets will rise on short coverings but could witness some profit booking at higher levels, suggest experts.


The exit polls suggest 114 seats for the BJP and 67 seats for the INC based using averages across various exit polls. A win of the incumbent party will be taken positively by the market but slowly the focus will shift from elections to the macro picture which has weakened significantly.

Derivative Picture:-

On the options front, maximum Put open interest was seen at 10000 followed by 10200 strikes while maximum Call OI was seen at 10500 followed by 10400 strikes.

Significant Put writing was seen at 10300 and 10200 strikes while Call writing remains intact at 10450 and 10500 strikes ahead of the election outcome.



>>> Nifty Weekly Chart - Posted on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Wrote on Last Weekly Review - Price gave a Bullish Hammer.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Price rallied as expected and More Yet to come.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Might be a Flag pattern - if breaks out - may trigger fresh rally. Key Resistance @ 10370-75 and 10440.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Much awaited Gujarat Results may trigger the bullet on monday morning on either side.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<Mentioned Price made a Dragon fly doji near 20 WMA.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<Second dragon fly doji on weekly chart - shows - Bulls are still waiting.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<Resistance @ 25520 and 25710 if breaks may rally more.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<Price must break above the channel Resistance @ middle, Else consolidation or correction may begin again.

>>> CNXPSUBANK - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<3690-3700 if Holds - Expect a Bounce back on all PSU Bank Stocks.

>>> DRREDDY - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<We are Long and Price may test or Break above the channel. Resistance @ 2390 & 2450.

>>> N4A - Whatsapp <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<Send request with Name and Locaiton.










Thursday, December 14, 2017

Resistance @ 10290 & 10330

Dear All,

>>> Nifty 5 Mins Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above 5 Min Chart shows - a Clear Break out and may face Resistance @ 10290 & 10330. We are Long. Cheers!!!

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Support @ 10180 - 190

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price if holds 10180 or 50 DMA - Expect a pull back rally again. We are Long.



Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Support @ 10240 - 10210 - 10180

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have booked our Long Yesterday @ 10330 with 220 Points profit.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Next Support @ 25090.

>>> TataMotors - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Out Long. Support @ 406 & 402

>>> TechM - Hourly Chart <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have Short Position. Cheers!!!