Nifty - Weekly Review

Dear All,

Here by I am Posting my Weekly Review on Both Eod & Intraday Based Chart analysis. As I have Changed many of my Counts in both Eod & Intrady - I feel this becomes necessary as my Earlier counts have breached some levels.

Here it is ....

>>>> Nifty Eod <<<<

>>>Click the Thumbnail to See in Full Screen<<<

Earlier fall from 5630 to 4770 as marked as A-B-C - have changed to 1-5 and ongoing upmove has been changed from 1-5 to A-B-C - means I feel this upmove as corrective rather than Impulse.

As given on Chart this Ongoing A-B-C is travelling inside a Expanding Triangle and have almost near 61.8% retrace at 5301-03 level.

>>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<<<

>>>Click the Thumbnail to See in Full Screen<<<

Hourly Chart gives a clear picture - Nifty traveled inside a Channel as given on Chart from 08th June to 29th June says that its surely not a 1-5 Pattern. So the Ongoing move has been labelled as A-B-C, as B has done a double zig zag. Break above 5160 has confirmed that C has started which is of 1-5 in nature. 5268 is the top of sw(2) of Wave 1 as it plays as an important resistance here. Next week nifty faces Important resistance at 5315 / 5342 / 5375 / 5450.

Once this corrective Upmove completes - Nifty should start a Big wave 3 down fall. A break below 5160 should confirm this.

Conclusion :- I have changed my entire Wave Pattern as I feel this necessary. Apart from technical lets see some the Important Macro Economical points to strengthen my views here.

>>> Almost all the World Index are Looking Bearish - Most importantly Dow / S&P looks same like Nifty's Bearish Move.

>>> Now Euro Zone should be focused on as it heavily Impacting the world market. Friday Euro Summit and followed by world market and commodity markets including Our Equity market cheered as I see this as an Over Reaction or Technically as sub wave C movement. It looks like a "Doctor agreed for an Operation" and the 'Patient cheered'. The real Pain comes only when Operation gets completed successfully. As I know that Spain's Bail out is not yet considered on Friday Summit as Spain the the 4th Largest Country in Euro Zone after Germany/France/Italy and Greece. Spains Bond marked Yield jumped form .50 to 6.58% and the Govt is ready to pay for 7% means that its financial situation is getting worse. If spain ask for an Bail Out - then Not even Euro or US or IMF can bail out then - which is I feel that the world Markets will be rattled with Panic and Choas. Any fall in euro zone nation may give a Big Panic in Forex Market - including India.

>>> I think Domestic Issues in India is worse than we expected.Most Importantly current account deficit (CAD) shot up to $78.2 billion (4.2 per cent of gross domestic product) for the year ended March 2012, from $46 billion (2.7 per cent of GDP) the previous year. This is the highest level of CAD ever — both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP — according to the Reserve Bank of India. What does it means - In spite of many Action taken by RBI in Interest Rates and Bond Market - Situation is getting out of Control form the Govt and RBI - as a Result Rupee Slide Continues - So Only Last RBI monetary Policy RBI Governor Subbha Rao denied any Rate Cut - advised Govt to reduce their Expenditure. An economist Speak Less and Reveals then Truth rather a Politician don't.

Hence the Govt is ready to Tax every thing as most of the services in India to be taxed with 12% - So ever Poor Indian should get ready to pay the Govt. Then why not the Govt can Tax FII's - But in Reality we found lot of Chaos and Confusion in the P.M. Manmohans Camp. I think Not Only Vodafone - Every M&A (merger and acquisition), may be even a PE investment may be taxed in future.

Finally I strong feel FII's wont like a Country where there are Political Instability / Lack of Policy Decision's / High Inflation / Worst GDP and finally worst Current Account Deficit.

Note:- Please note that all these above Technical and fundamental reasons are my own views and may be right or wrong. Should be taken only as education point of view and Only Price action should confirm the next move. I may change my views based on Price action and Technical Point of view. So if any one want to take any action in their Investment and Trading decision should consult your well trained adviser.

Hope Every one enjoying the week end. Lets wait till the market opens on Monday. Have a Nice week end. Cheers!!!

"Fry" Day & Weak End

To be Noted that Nifty unable to Cross 5160 for the 4th time today also. Even in the Last 2 days I have mentioned the same. Again not Staying below 5130 also for the 2nd time today. So the Movement shall be decided once Price breaks these levels.

Since I have been using bearish counts - I hope the 2nd sub wave has been completed today and 3rd is on the way. sw(c)(3)(iii) to get start from tomorrow. Hope tomorrow can be a Gap down Logically and also seeing the Global Markets Movements..

1) Global Issue:- Looking at the Bad news roaming around the world market like JP Morgan's "London Whale" 9 Billion Loss & German Chancellor Angela Merkal said in German Parliament Yesterday that "There is no quick fix for the euro-zone's debt crisis and that the introduction of euro bonds at this stage would be "economically wrong," - Shows that Euro Problem may Deepen Further. Hence forth world Market may fall heavily today and tomorrow too.

2) Domestic Issue:- A New Tax Notice may be issued to Vodafone - may reflect in our Equity Market too.

So lets wait for the "FRY-Day" & hope its going to be Week end also. Cheers!!!

Expiry Day - Nifty

As mentioned Yesterday Nifty can't Hold above 5156 which is 61.8% retrace, today formed a Possible double top as given on the above chart. A gap left was filled today at 5130. Now 2 Possibility as Nifty has completed c(2) and getting ready for a fall, a fall below 5129 may confirm that - as marked in red color count. Else Nifty may move up for c(2)(c) - a move above 5156 may take nifty to the next retrace of 78.6% which is 5174.

As mentioned earlier - all these bearish scenario get truncated if Nifty trades above 5190 with volume and Bullish count comes in to effect. Please refer previous post for those counts.

Go Down Nifty ?

Nifty took support as usual near 5090. Now the fall has confirmed that we are in Wave C, hence we need to fall from here. Today we have completed C(1) and a possible retrace upto 5145 / 5156 & 5173 for C(2) for tomorrow. If this count is right then Nifty should fall from here for C(3). As I said Yesterday if A=C means Nifty should fall atleast upto 5040 or below that level.

All these Counts are Invalid if Nifty trades above 5190, and the Alternative Scenario will come into force as I have marked Yesterday. Please Refer Yesterday Chart for the Alternative counts.

Cheers!!!

Which Way to Go - Nifty

As Wrote You on Friday, Nifty not able to Hold above 5190. Nifty moving with High voltage of Volatility between 5190 to 5090. I have given two Scenario here Bearish & Bullish.

As per Bearish we are on sw(c) - means Nifty may rest near 5040 as right to say Wave A = C.

As per Bullish (round with Yellow Circle) - means Nifty on sw3(ii) which may find support near 5080-90 level.

Lets See. Cheers!!!

Nifty with RBI

RBI will announce steps to improve markets on Monday: Pranab Mukherjee.

Kolkata: Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Saturday reassured that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will make some strategic announcements on Monday to improve the sentiment on the Dalal Street.

"The Reserve Bank will announce some measures on Monday that will improve the markets,"

Pranab said in Kolkata.

"Steps have been taken in consultation with the RBI Governor, expect announcements on Monday that will improve the market condition," Pranab added.

>>> NIFTY EOD <<<

>Click the above Thumbnail to see in Full Screen< <<>>

Nifty forming an Expanding Triangle. As I have mentioned in my last week Post, nifty need to fill a gap left in 5126 which means a possibility of hitting the top of the line as given on chart.

Since FM has announced on Saturday that RBI to announce some important steps to boost market condition, it seems nifty may try to fill the gap left above.

For the last 2 trading sessions, what ever the global market conditions, nifty able to hold 5090 successfully due to the market rumours that RBI may steps in.

Now as I have marked on chart, if the Red color line on the bottom gets broken that is 5080-5090 then there may be some selling pressure to step in.

>>>Nifty Hourly <<<



As per Hourly Chart - its seems Like Nifty has done a a-b-c Last friday and completed C(2) - Now on Monday or in Coming days if 5190 is very crucial - if breaks then these counts becomes Invalid.

Bring me Back the Bear - An Alternative

>>> Click the thumbnail to see in full screen<<<

Dow Falling - Seems to be a Dow in the Grip of Bear. Of Course I hope Nifty may also take clues from the global ques. If Yes, then there should be some alternative.

So given above is the Alternative Count for Nifty. Although my yesterdays Head and Shoulder failed, I hope still Sub wave 2 may continue and the fall for sw(C) may be still Pending. In that case a Power full (deeper) sw(C) may start to rattle the market.

If any one ask me why are You scarring Other with Bear Phase - My answer is "Just to alert You all from Loosing Your Preciously Hard Earned Money". I don't advice You to Short Nifty or to Buy Tones of Put Option, Instead You must aware of the Market Movement, especially Your Stop Loss and Risk Your taking in this "Killer Market"

Hope You all get my Point of View. Wish You all a Happy and Profitable Trading. Cheers.

Fed & Nifty Gave a "TWIST"

Yesterday Bernanke Said "Fed Continues Twist" Today Nifty gave a Twist after 02:00 pm. Rumours of CRR Cut by Friday Evening - as a Result Bank Nifty gave a Stunning Rally along with Banking Stocks. No one know is that True or Just a Rumour. As a Result Head & Shoulder Failed and Nifty rallied and closed above 5144. Now I need to re-arrange all my counts.

As I gave a Sell Call Yesterday :-

(20/Jun/2012 09:45:37): *****NIFTY-ALERT**** Sell Nifty (spot) near cmp:5121. SL 5144. Target 5098/5080/5060.

(20/Jun/2012 13:26:09): *****NIFTY-UPDATE***** :-
Nifty near First Target 5098. Sell given at 5121. Carry your Short for the Next Target.

(21/Jun/2012 10:07:03): ****Nifty-Update**** :-
Nifty Sell given Yesterday @ 5121 - cmp:5094. Partial Profit can be Booked near 5080 (spot).

(21/Jun/2012 14:28:52): ****Nifty-Update**** :-
Nifty Sell given Yesterday @ 5121 - cmp:5129. Exit if trades above 5145

Atlast after lot of Patience 24 Points Stop Loss was Hit.


Nifty has successfully saved 5090 (spot) and able to give a Stunning Rally even though European markets where trading in RED, showed that our Indian Markets have their own way to choose.

Now Whats Next. Tomorrow again Nifty has to Cross some Important Resistances like 5174 / 5184 & 5190. Support Now moves to 5144-45. Lets wait and see the Interesting Friday Move on Nifty...Cheers!!!

Head & Shoulder on Nifty !!!

>>>Click above thumbnail to see it on Full Screen <<<

Nifty forming a Head & Shoulder on Chart. Right Shoulder on the formation. Today Nifty completed its 2(b) near 5141.3 and started 2(c). If i am not wrong Nifty should fall from here to complete the C wave.

Above 5144 these counts and Head and Shoulder becomes Invalid. So as said Yesterday I advice every one to trade cautious as I feel some Panic may rattle the market. Cheers!!!

Note:- Open Trading Account with Marwadi Shares and Finance - Madurai Branch - We give Excellent Advice - Back Office Support - Best Brokerage - Online Trading Software. For Account Opening Queries Call me at:- 9677924975 / 9362081313 - 0452 - 3018000

Welcome the Bear Once Again!!!

>>>Click above thumbnail to see it on Full Screen <<<

Yes, as I said on the Title, it seems Nifty may fall Once again. As Said Yesterday Nifty Broken 5076 and went upto 5113.45.

As per chart attached above - Nifty is on its way to 2(B). Crucial Resistance are 5115 / 5124 and 5133, from where a fall may start for 2(C). So I said "Welcome the Bear Once Again". A Fall can be upto 5030 or 4980 in coming days. So I advise to stay cautious for rest of the week. Mostly a Unknown Panic can Rattle the market.

Note:- Open Trading Account with Marwadi Shares and Finance - Madurai Branch - We give Excellent Advice - Back Office Support - Best Brokerage - Online Trading Software. For Account Opening Queries Call me at:- 9677924975 / 9362081313 - 0452 - 3018000

Consolidation or Correction ???

Inspite of GDP Numbers, Growth and Inflation has dampen the Sentiments of Market men, RBI refused to cut the Interest Rates and Left Unchanged. Market surprised by this move and lost all its gain made from Morning.

The RBI decided to enhance the ECR limit to 50% of the outstanding rupee export credit for banks, from 15%, a move that will inject Rs 30,000 crore into the system which was seen as an alternative to CRR Cut.

Another Negative suprise is Fitch revised it outlook from "Stable" to "Negative"

So what are the impact on Nifty tomorrow.

It seems Nifty is moving on a diagonal formation of ABCDE - IN 5-3-5-3-5. If 5076 breaks tomorrow then it seems can be looked as an break out and a move upto 5100 / 5115 / 5133 / 5158 and 5190. Good Support at 5030.

Today's Performance :-

18-06-12, 09-17-48 am ****NIFTY-Update**** Nifty Cmp:- 5190 Buy given on Friday @ 5108. 2nd Target also Achieved. Book Profit. Profit 82 X 50 = 4100

(18/Jun/2012 12:40:59): ****NIFTY-ALERT**** :- If Nifty (Spot) able to Break above 5100 then 5130 / 5160 / 5190, Weak Only below 5070, can slide upto 5000. (Trade as per Levels - Follow SL)

(18/Jun/2012 14:07:52): *****NIFTY-Update**** :- Sell triggered in Nifty below 5070. Cmp:5050. Intraday Players Book Profit. More weakness below 5050. REvise SL to Cost @ 5070.

(18/Jun/2012 14:47:19): High Volatile in Nifty - Even though we are still in Profit. Morning Exited Long at 5190 with a Profit of 82 Point (Rs.4100). Now Short Triggered @ 5070 and Booked at 5050. Profit 20 Points (Rs.1000). Always Maintain Strict Sl and Follow Levels Only and Enjoy with Us

(18/Jun/2012 15:06:05): *****NIFTY-ALERT**** :- Buy Nifty (spot) Only above 5076, can Move upto 5100 / 5115 / 5133 / 5158 & 5190. Weak if breaks 5040 may slide upto 5000/4987. Follow Strict SL.


Note:- Open Trading Account with Marwadi Shares and Finance - Madurai Branch - We give Excellent Advice - Back Office Support - Best Brokerage - Online Trading Software. For Account Opening Queries Call me at:- 9677924975 / 9362081313 - 0452 - 3018000

Pranab Vs RBI Vs Nifty

Great News !!! Pranab may resign as the Finance Minister on June 24 after filing his nomination for the President's post and the Prime minister is likely to take over the Finance portfolio. Sources also say that P Chidambaram or Sushil Shinde may replace Pranab as the Leader of the Lok Sabha.

so what Mr. Pranab achieved as FM during his time ???



Pranab is the First FM to be Under Pressure in India ???

High Inflation / Negative GDP Growth / Sky flying Oil Prices / Raised Taxes = its true that no one likes Pranab as FM.

So Now the Big Question is WHO IS THE NEXT F M ???

I hope there is no chance for PC as he is still in trouble with Swami who is making allegation against him in 2G Spectrum Case.

Will Montek can Replace him - i think after his foreign trip and also Toilet Controversy had taken a big blow to his reputaion..



So will Sushil Shinde succeed ??? Will the Indian Markets cheer up for him to be the New FM ????

Will RBI fulfill market expectation on Monday ???



Due to Poor Industrial Growth and High Inflation - Market expecting an aggressive rate cut on Monday - will Subbaroa satisfy Nifty with his Action ???

So finally Les See whats on Nifty Eod Chart



Please click the above chart for a clear picture.

Given above is the Eod chart shows a clear break out from the above trend line and almost near the 200 dma, a cross above this means no doubt a big bull trigger for next week. Two gaps left on the top 5180 and 5226 - means no doubt Nifty will fill it .



On Hourly Chart No doubt we are in 3rd Wave - means Bulls has already triggered for a good Upmove in coming days. Resis 5190 / 5235 / 5280 / 5342 for Next Week. Strong Support @ 5047

Fridays Performance :-

(15/Jun/2012 11:05:28): ****NIFTY-ALERT**** :- Buy Nifty (Spot) Only above 5108-10 Level for a Possible Upmove for 5136 / 5190 & 5235. Nifty Weak Below 5070 may slide upto 5060 / 5040 & 5000.


(15/Jun/2012 12:13:32): ****NIFTY-ALERT**** BUY TRIGGERED

(15/Jun/2012 14:13:43): Nifty on INtraday Day High - 5131. Buy given @ 5108. Hold Your Longs for Given Target with SL.

Nifty made a High of 5146 and Clients are Holding for the Given Target on Monday. I may Extend the Target or Advise to Book Profit during Market Hours depending on the Market Conditions

Note:- Open Trading Account with Marwadi Shares and Finance - Madurai Branch - We give Excellent Advice - Back Office Support - Best Brokerage - Online Trading Software. For Account Opening Queries Call me at:- 9677924975 / 9362081313 - 0452 - 3018000

Bears are Back Again!!!

>>>Click the Chart to Enlarge <<< >>>NIFTY<<<

As I wrote Yesterday - Once the Key Support 5095 broken, Nifty fell down to test the next Support at 5056.

As given on Chart - Nifty has completed 1st Wave and Started a Corrective sw(2). Since 23.6% retrace 5056 was broken today, a fall upto 38.6% upto 5000 can't be ruled out. A gap down opening is also possible for tomorrow.

Today's Performance :-

*****NIFTY-ALERT***** :- Nifty Spot Looks weak below 5095 may slide upto Next Supp Level @ 5056/5000. Resistance 5124-28.

*****NIFTY-UPDATE***** :- Nifty Spot achieved first Target 5056. Small Traders Book Profit, Others HOld for Next Target. Sell given at 5095. Profit 39 X 50 = Rs 1950. Enjoy




>>>Click the Chart to Enlarge <<< >>>>> SBIN <<<<<

Today's Stock Performance :-

*****STOCK-ALERT***** State Bank of India :- Weak Below 2185-80, may slide upto 2140/2110 & 2070. SL 2210-15.

SBI Sell given @ 2185. Cmp:2152. Profit 125X 33 = Rs 825 Hold the Shorts for Target with SL

As per Attached chart SBIN has completed A-B-C wave and started falling. Today our Short Call Performed well. Tomorrow if SBIN Breaks 2140 then a Possible fall upto 2075 not ruled out.

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Bulls are not Safe Now?

As Wrote Yesterday Nifty Spot did not break 5090 - made a low of 5095 and moved up and breaks the Key resistance 5124. Now the Important question is where are We?

I have changed my Counts today - as Nifty broken the Key Resistance 5124.

As per the attached chart - it seems Nifty have completed sw-4 (as key 5124 has been taken out today) and sw-5 is running. As per chart - sw(5) also nearing an end as 1-5 marked on 5th has been nearing an End.

Tomorrow if Nifty breaks the Trend Line as given on Chart - Nifty may Invite Sell off - Key Support @ 5095 / 5056 & 5000.
Key Resistance @ 5150 / 5190 & 5232.
If Nifty able to Break above 5150 may test rest of the Resistance Levels as the 5th wave can get Extended further.
Cheers!!!

Bull Trap or Bear Trap

Nifty Opened Gap down and Managed to Recover Breaks 5124 once and closed at 5111.75 (sw(2)(b). Now if Nifty able to trade above 5124 with good volume Only I suppose to Say Bulls are strength to move up. But I see this move as a Bear Case to fall for sw(2)(c) as marked on chart.

Tomorrow is a Inflation Day. 5090 Plays as Important Support, break below this may lead to a fall upto 5040 & 4990.

As Said earlier, If Nifty able to trade above 5124 with volume, these counts becomes Invalid and to assume that sw(3) must have started, which i shall post tomorrow. So Play Safe and Earn Profit on Every Move.

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Bear Comes First - News Comes Next

Asked you "Shall I call the Bear on Friday" ??? - As said Nifty down from 5124 to 5041 -
If 5040 gets Broken, then 4990 & 4950 are the Next Support to Watch.

Today's Performance :-

****NIFTY-ALERT**** :- If Nifty Breaks 5103 then may fall utp 5080 & 5060. Resistance 5124.

See the Low of Nifty Today.

Shall I Call the Bear Again ???

As I wrote Yesterday Bull Relaxed till today Afternoon, came down and almost filled the Gap - made a low of 4995. Later Part of the Trading was Jumped for sw(5).

For Monday Nifty faces a Key Resistance at 5095 to 5104 on spot, channel resistance line as given on chart.

On the Hourly Chart We had a Bearish Grave Stone doji which may an indication that Nifty has completed the Wave 1 -

Now its time for Consolidation to Corrective wave 2. So It is Advised to Book Profit Near the Resistance line so that I can Call the Bear for the Wave 2.

Today Following Calls send to Our Trading clients in Marwadi Shares:-

*****NIFTY-ALERT***** Buy Nifty above spot level 5025. SL 4990. Target 5080/5120 /5150 and 5190.

Almost achived the First Target. Those who are holding still should Book On Monday.

Lets wait for Next Week to Welcome Bear Once again and Nifty to get Consolidate.
Happy Week end for all, Till then Cheers!!!

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Let the Bull Relax before another Run

As I wrote Yesterday a cross above 5011 can take nifty to 5055, and today Nifty Exactly hit a High of 5058.3 which is 161.8% Retrace and completed sub wave (iii). Now Nifty should consolidate for sw(iv) before any further Upmove. A Possible downside Upto 4988-4990 to fill the gap as marked on Chart can't ruled out for tomorrow.



Attached is the Eod chart of Nifty - As it Crossed and closed above 50dma is a good and Healthy sign for Bulls in coming days as it can hold on closing basis. But need to Cross the Resistance Channel can give a Bullish Trigger in coming days. Interesting days are Yet to come - Lets wait for it. Cheers!!!

The Bulls are Back!!!

Finally Bulls are Back with Vengeance.. Hoping that ECB will ease Monetary Policy & Rate Cut by Reserve Bank of India later this month.

As wrote Yesterday Nifty broken 4895 and jumped with strength. As per previous EW counts it seems Nifty has successfully completed Wave C and triggered a 3rd Wave up move (like 1-5 move pattern). Today Wave 3(1)(iii) is underway, as marked on chart (iii) sub wave have almost retraced 127.2% which is 5010.25. A cross above 5011.25 may take nifty upto 5055 which is 161.8% retrace.
Cheers!!!

Will Germany Rescue Euro Zone ??

Yes Germany will Rescue Euro Zone Says "CEO - Deutsche Bank".

"Destruction is much more expensive than further construction. A demolition of the euro zone will create chaos in Europe and probably also in many parts of the world".

The above Words are Much more Important for our Market too.

At the Same time U.S. is pressing the government of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to do more to strengthen the euro zone.

Now the Outlook for G-7 Finance Ministers Tele Conferance is very Important for tomorrow Trade.

Also the Focus to be given on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before a congressional panel on the economic outlook and monetary policy on Thursday.

In this situation - Lets Look at How Nifty going to react for the Rest of the Week.



As I wrote Yesterday nifty Unable to Hold above 4895 Spot, it shows the 5 wave downside not yet finished. As marked on Chart if the Upmove today was sw(4) then the fall for sw(5) is Ready. If so then the fall can be like 4803 / 4774 / 4744 / 4702 and 4650.

Above 4895 all these counts became Invalid and Upmove should Continue for a Resistance like 4925 and 4967.

Lets Wait and See - Cheers!!!

Its again a Bear Attack

Hi Every Body,
First I apologize for Not Updating on Friday - due to my Personnel works.

Bears continuous to attack Our Indian market due to global Factors.



Spanish Prime Minister's Call for "Robust Banking Union"

France Finance Minister Said "aid for troubled European banks should come through the European Stability Mechanism rather than through governments"

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased four basis points to 1.49 percent.

above head lines tells us clearly that still the global Equity markets are still not out of Danger Yet.




Given above is the Daily Chart of NIFTY which shows that we are in the ABC correction - C(5) is going on.
Click on the Picture to Enlarge it and view clearly.



So for a Clearer Picture, see this 5 Mins enlarged Chart. As per this 2 alternative counts has been given. Yellow color i to v has completed at 127.2% @ 4770. Else Green Color shows extended 3rd sub wave has been completed at 4770, Resistance are at 4875 and 4895, cross above these level may invalidate green counts. Lets wait and see!!