Nifty surprise with a 200+ Rally on friday, earlier than expected rally surprised all.
The TV interview of Narendra Modi on Thursday, in which he exuded confidence that the BJP would win with a clear majority and form the strongest and most stable government since Rajiv Gandhi's time, would have pumped up the sentiment. And on a day when the markets were on a tear, the VIX also raced ahead by a whooping 11% to 38 points, in what marks a surprising departure from the traditional inverse relationship between market direction and volatility index.
"It seems like Dalal Street expects good margin win in the upcoming elections results next week for Mr Modi," said A K Prabhakar, Independent Market Expert. And, the exit poll results due on Tuesday will throw more light as to where the election results are headed, he added.
"Market seems to have factored in an NDA government coming in with around 250 seats I would think with expectations of maybe slightly higher number. So let us wait and see what the exit polls have to say," said Sanjeev Prasad, Senior Executive Director & Co-Head, Kotak Institutional Equities.
"Let's say if you see NDA government getting 230-250 seats, I do not think we will see much of a reaction in the market. But, if let's say NDA gets to 270 plus seats on its own and is in a position to form the next government on majority basis without any support of any other regional parties, then really it is going to be positive and maybe the market will go up 5-7 per cent," he added.
Analysts advise caution ahead of the main event next week as the event risk is too high while fundamentals are yet to play a catch-up. The last two national elections in 2004 and 2009 saw markets hitting the circuit limits when trading was halted on the day of the poll results.
"The market has already run up in anticipation of whatever the election results might throw up on the 16th. The exit polls on the evening of May 12 would likely be one of the triggers," said Nipun Mehta, Blue Ocean Capital Advisors
So lets move to Technical's.
>>> NIFTY - MONTHLY <<<
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Above Monthly Chart reveals a clear Break on Price and RSI. No doubt market in a Pure Bull Grip. Lets see what the other Time frames suggest.
>>> NIFTY - Weekly Chart <<<
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Weekly Chart suggest sub wave (II) completed and friday upmove seems like sub wave (III) started. Break above the Channel may confirm the trend.
>>>> NIFTY - Daily Chart <<<
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As said on Weekly Chart - Daily chart needs more confirmation for a healthy upmove, should cross the channel.
>>> Bank Nifty - Daily Chart <<<
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Clear break out seen on Bank Nifty. Hope more upside left.
>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<
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Bank Nifty Hourly Chart shows clearly how the Bulls worked so far.
>>> Chart of the Week <<<
>>> HDFC Bank As updated on 06th May 2014 <<<
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Wrote on 06th May that HDFC bank ready for Upmove and we are long in that also..
>>> Happened <<<
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Friday HDFC Bank hit all our target with a Profit of Rs.20,000.
>>> ULTRACEMCO <<<
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Ultra Tech hit our both target intraday itself with a Profit of 12500 or 100 Pts.
>>> IDFC - As Updated on 06th May 2014 <<<
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Last 2 weeks we are advising long to our clients. We have also wrote in this blog about IDFC. See what happened on friday.
>>> Happened <<<
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IDFC made a good break out on chart as given above. We expect more bounce from here.
>>> DISH TV <<<
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Dish TV - Looking for more upmove. We made a Profit of Rs.8000. Lets See.
>>> Essar Oil <<<
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Essar Oil - We are Long since 63 and price made a high of 70 on friday. Still more upmove pending.
>>> Escorts <<<
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Escort - if the support holds - expect rally.
>>> PERFORMANCE <<<
