Weekly Review 02.09.2013

Dear All,

GDP growth dived to a four-year low of 4.4 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2013-14, against 4.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year, official data showed on Friday.

Growth crashed as industry was under the pressure of high interest rates and the overall gloomy economic conditions. Much of the services sector, too, posted a modest growth, except for government expenditure-boosted community and social activities.

The effect of the Reserve Bank of India’s high interest rate regime was visible, as private final consumption expenditure, indicating demand in the economy, grew just 1.62 per cent in the first quarter of 2013-14, against 3.8 per cent in Q4 of 2012-13.

Agriculture growth, too, did not pick up as expected. It grew just 2.7 per cent in the first quarter, against 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012-13. Factoring seasonality, the growth was lower than the 2.9 per cent in the first quarter.

Only electricity, gas and water supply posted some semblance of growth. But here, too, growth fell to 3.7 per cent, almost half of the 6.2 per cent seen in the first quarter of 2012-13. However, it picked up sequentially, as growth stood at 2.8 per cent in Q4 of 2012-13.

Below are the sector wise growth/degrowth:

Q1FY14 GDP At 4.4% Vs 4.8% (QoQ)
Q1FY14 GDP At 4.4% Vs 5.4% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Services Growth At 6.6% Vs 6.6% (QoQ)
Q1FY14 Services Growth At 6.6% Vs 7.7% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Ind Growth At 0.2% Vs 2.7% (QoQ)
Q1FY14 Ind Growth At 0.2% Vs 1.8% (YoY)
Q1 FY14 Agriculture Growth At 2.7% Vs 1.4% (QoQ)
Q1 FY14 Agriculture Growth At 2.7% Vs 2.9% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Construction Growth At 2.8% Vs 7% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Mfg Sector Growth At -1.2% Vs -1% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Mining Growth At -2.8% Vs 0.4% (YoY)

Meanwhile IMF said "The current situation presents a challenge, obviously, to the government of India, but also an opportunity for the government to continue with its policy efforts on a variety of fronts," International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesman Gerry
Rice said.

Amid slowing tax revenues and rising Plan expenditure, the Centre’s fiscal deficit for the first four months of this financial year soared to Rs 3.4 lakh crore, 62.8 per cent of the Budget estimate (BE) of Rs 5.42 lakh crore for 2013-14, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts.

Earlier, Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said the target of reining in fiscal deficit at 4.8 per cent of GDP this financial year was a red line that wouldn’t be breached. Friday’s data showed he had a difficult task at hand. In the April-July period this year, it was particularly Plan expenditure that increased the fiscal deficit — it stood at Rs 1.49 lakh crore, 27 per cent of the BE of Rs 5.55 lakh crore. In the corresponding period last year, it stood at 21.9 per cent of the BE.

>>> NIFTY - WEEKLY - As Updated on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Last Weekly Chart gave a Hammer and closed above 100wma & 200wma and saved 50% Fib level.

>>> Happened and Yet to on Weekly Chart <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

This week also Nifty saved all the levels like last week and closed above 5380 and formed a Pipe Bottom - gives me lot of confidence and hence if next week able to close above 5528 then expect a Trend Reversal or say "U" turn on Indian Stock market.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Daily Chart gives a Clear picture of how Bulls have taken control on the market. All important indicators like MACD and RSI on the buy side. Also EW have changed its count after nifty breaks above 5454 and so the last leg down was changed to a-b-c. Seems like bulls coming back

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Hourly chart have closed above 100dma, but since it failed last time, we need more confirmation to break and trade above the trend line as shown on chart.

>>>> BANK NIFTY <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Bank Nifty last fall almost retraced 127.2& of wave (a)/(i) - and formation of doji at the end - suggest the possible reversal. We need more confirmation from indicators. So lets wait and see.

>>> BLOCK BUSTER CHARTS OF THE WEEK <<<

>>> COAL INDIA <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Coal India hit a low of 238 last week and second target also achieved.

>>> AXIS BANK <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Axis Bank made a high of 890. Almost rallied Rs.70 from our Buy call.

>>> BHEL <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

BHEL made a high of 120.80 almost near the third target.

>>> YES BANK <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Yes Bank still on Holding. Part Profit booked Rs.5000/- Charts shows a good Break Out. Lets See

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Key Resistance 5441

Dear All,

With falling rupee and rising oil prices casting a shadow over Indian economy, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday said the country is faced with a difficult economic situation for which some domestic factors too were responsible.

"It cannot be denied that the country is faced with a difficult economic situation," Singh said after Leader of the Opposition Arun Jaitley sought his response on the rupee hitting a life-time low.

"There are several causes (for the economic woes). I do not deny some domestic factors too are responsible," he said.

Listing some of the external factors that have impacted rupee and Indian economy, Singh said US monetary stance and problems created by tensions in Syria and its "inevitable consequences on oil prices" have played their role.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Crossed 5342 & 5372 as wrote yesterday. Now 5441 key resistance should be crossed for any further upmove, else nifty may once again turn down. Lets See.

>>> BHEL - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened Today <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes BHEL done second Target also.

>>> AXIS BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes today Axis Bank Rocked, Still lot of upmove left. All our Client holding Long and part booked on first target as shown on chart. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Resistance 5324, 5372 & 5441

Dear All,

India will not be able to do much about the rupee's sharp fall, said Jim O'Neill, Former Chairman of Goldman Sachs AMC.

As rupee's record fall against the US dollar continues to hog the limelight, it has also lost ground and breached key levels against a host of other currencies including British pound, euro and Swiss franc.

Adding to rupee's woes, British pound today crossed Rs 106 level, euro went past Rs 92, Swiss franc touched Rs 75 mark, Canadian dollar was at Rs 65, Australian dollar at over Rs 60, while New Zealand dollar, Singapore dollar, Bruneian dollar and Libyan dinar crossed Rs 50 level.

Among even more expensive foreign currencies, one Kuwaiti dinar is now worth more than Rs 240, Bahraini Dinar over Rs 180, Omani rial has went past Rs 175 and Latvia Lat at Rs 130.

Against the most prominent foreign currency US dollar, the rupee has fallen to a record low of Rs 68.75.

An analysis of foreign exchange rates across the world shows that Kuwaiti dinar is the most expensive against the rupee at current level of close to Rs 243, followed by Bahraini dinar (Rs 182), Omani rial (Rs 178) and Latvian lat (Rs 130).

Among the major foreign currencies, British pound is the most expensive and hit a record high of Rs 106.91 this afternoon, followed by euro, Swiss franc, US dollar, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

The Asian economies have already been under stress on speculation that US Federal Reserve will sooner than later start curbing stimulus leading to money flowing out of these economies.

The government measure came in too late and were not been appreciated by the market. It forced the government to come out with host of steps in all directions. The measures seen as a desperate act ahead of general elections next year are proving counterproductive

The passage of Food Security Bill in the Lok Sabha couldn't have come at more inappropriate time. The market is worried that it will further burden the government's finance. It's a play of weak fundamentals and even weaker sentiment.

Meanwhile BNP Paribas has sharply cut India's GDP forecast to 3.7 percent for fiscal 2014 from 5.2 percent previously. The new forecast, if met, would mark India's lowest growth since fiscal 1992. According to BNP Paribas, RBI's cash draining measures have increased risks to economic growth at a time when the economy was already slowing sharply over the summer.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty unable to hold 5254 as said yesterday. Gap down opening on Nifty in the early morning trade wiped out all support. A Sharp recovery on the later part of the trade raise hope for the expiry tomorrow. Lets See.


>>> BHEL <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

BHEL - after breaking form the falling wedge, looking for a good upmove. Lets see.

Support 5254

Dear All,

FOOD SECURITY BILL (FSB) :-

Markets welcomed the Food Security Bill (FSB) cleared by the Lok Sabha with an over 600 points fall. Rupee kept on sliding with the FSB giving it a further push to breach 66 against the dollar. Even as politicians continue to pat their own back for clearing the bill, financial markets, which is a reflection of sentiment of the people who study numbers do not believe there is any reason to celebrate.

While there is no clear figure on the size of hole that the FSB would punch in the economy, general expectation is around Rs 130,000 crore. India’s fiscal deficit for 2012-13 stood at Rs 490,000 crore, which was equivalent to 4.9% of the GDP.

Just a day before the bill was cleared, rating agency Fitch warned about the dangers of a slipping fiscal deficit. Yet even after the bill was cleared, Finance Minister maintained that the red line of 4.8% of fiscal deficit will not be breached.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<

As shown on chart two alternatives pending before us for tomorrow trade. If breaks 5254 then 3rd wave should start with more fall. Else sub wave 2 should move up for wave c. Lets See.

>>> COAL INDIA - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<

As said yesterday Coal India made a good fall today.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Coal India achieved my first target at 260 and made a profit of Rs.17000. Now if 255 support as shown on chart, if breaks then fall should continue.

5562 Resistance

Dear All,

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

5562 looks like a crucial resistance. Cross above may give some more rally, Else fall should continue.

>>> COAL INDIA <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Coal India performed well today. Gave Short at 277, made a low of 267. Partial Profit Booked at Rs.10,000/-. As given on Chart I feel more downfall left as the corrective upmove over. Lets See.

>>> APOLLO TYRE <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Apollo Tyre - Looks like a Pennant Break Out. Should move up form here onwards. Lets See!!!

Weekly Review - 26.08.2013

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - Weekly - As Updated Last Week <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> HAPPENED AND YET TO <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As wrote last week Nifty though fell down below 5380 or 50% Fib Level, managed to close above with a Hammer on weekly chart. 100 & 200 WMA also saved marginally. So there are chances of recovery next week.

>>> NIFTY - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So far I have marked Hourly chart as 123 formation and if Next week Nifty able to cross and trade above 5493 then the fall must be marked as A-B-C and hence the rally must continue for a while.

>>> BANK Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty almost completed its 5 wave downside, either its a ABC or 123 if give a break above the channel as shown on chart, no doubt may get a good short covering next week.

>>> BLOCK BUSTER CHART & PERFORMANCE LAST WEEK <<<

>>> HEXAWARE <<<

>>> KOTAK BANK <<<

> On 20th Aug 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

> On 21st Aug 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> COAL INDIA <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> INDUSIND BANK <<<

>>> REC-LTD - Updated as on 22nd Aug 2013<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> ICICI BANK LTD <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> JP ASSOCIATES <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Relief Rally To Continue

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As per yesterdays fall I see todays rally as Wave 3 extension as marked as sub wave 2. But I here lot of unconfirmed news floating round the corner and if break above the Previous High 5502 then current sub waves become invalid and relief rally must continue.

>>> COAL INDIA - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> HAPPENED TODAY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes today re-entered Coal India - But hit the SL and bounce to my target. Any way Loss is a Loss.

>>> REC Ltd <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Recltd made a IHS break out. Lets hope for a good bounce form here. We had a Long in this counter. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Rally Killed by Rupee

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Unable to cross 5500 Nifty fell down due to rupee once again. Previous low 5307 broken seems like wave 3 started on the downside again. So relief rally short lived. Lets see.

>>> INDUS IND BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Second Target also done on Indus Ind Bank.

>>> KOTAK BANK - As given Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Both Targets done today.

>>>COAL INDIA <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

My Clients have already Booked Coal India First Target. Still Now I feel if 254 is not broken then expect a good bounce once again. Lets See. Cheers!!!