Weekly Review - 02.02.2015

Dear All,

Market melted on Friday. Reason for the fall sited as Worst Result from Banking Sector & Coal India's mega offering saw the markets post their biggest drop in three weeks on Friday. Earnings posted by ICICI Bank and Bank of Baroda raised asset quality concerns, spooking banking stocks - which have weight of nearly a third on benchmark indices. Market players said selling pressure accentuated as investors liquidated their positions to invest in the share sale of state-owned Coal India.

The amount of funds that were required to participate in the Coal India issue was huge. To generate funds, investors had to liquidate existing positions.

After RBI rate cut, Banking sector saw a sharp rally which started fading after poor results and raising NPA. Now every one's eye on Feb 03rd RBI meeting. Next Trigger on Union Budget at Feb 28th.

>>> All time High Open Interest <<<

Outstanding positions in equity futures hit all-time highs on Thursday when January derivative contracts expired as traders rolled over bets to the February series ahead of the Union Budget.

Analysts said traders rolled over bullish positions in futures contracts of Nifty, banks, capital goods, oil and gas and power on hopes the government may announce pro-market measures in the Budget and the Reserve Bank of India may cut rates further in its meeting next week.

"If Nifty breaches 9000, the index may continue to 9300-9400 levels. We expect Nifty to hit the 9000 mark in the next couple of days, but the index may find strong resistance around these levels because traders may opt to book some profits," said Hemant Nahata, derivatives analyst at IIFL.

Open interest, or outstanding positions, in all Nifty and stock contracts was Rs 90,400 crore against Rs 76,900 crore at the start of the January series. The market-wide rollover stands at 83%, compared with average rollover of 78% in the last three series. Nifty rollover was also higher at 77% compared with the average rollover of 69% in the last three series.

India VIX, or the volatility index — a measure of traders' expectations of near-term risks in the market — closed at 19.43% on Thursday. This level was last seen in June 2014. Analysts expect the volatility index to increase to 23-24% in the first half of February.

So lets see what are the Important Key Events for Next Week :-

Mon: Application deadline for payments, small bank licences

HSBC manufacturing PMI

Tues: RBI policy review

Wed: Delhi state assembly elections

India HSBC Services PMI

>>> Danger ahead for Euro Zone <<<

Lets See some European News, which may have a major trigger in international market also. After ECB easing and Out come of New Greece Govt, tension raped between ECB and Greece's left-wing Syriza govt. for their pending debt issue.

It seems like new Greece govt not interested to stay with EuroZone. But Mrs Merkel told the Hamburger Abendblatt newspaper she still wanted Greece to stay in the eurozone.

The European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - had agreed a €240bn (£179bn; $270bn) bailout with the previous Greek government.

But new Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has refused to work with the troika to renegotiate the bailout terms and has already begun to roll back the austerity measures the creditors had demanded of the previous government.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out cancelling any of Greece's debt, saying banks and creditors have already made substantial cuts.

On Friday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned Greece about its negotiation tactics on writing off debt.

"There's no arguing with us about this, and what's more we are difficult to blackmail," he said.

Finance Minister Varoufakis on Friday refused to work with the troika, saying he would instead talk to individual organisations and EU member states.

Greece's current programme of loans ends on 28 February. A final bailout tranche of €7.2bn still has to be negotiated.

If all these fails due to new govt, Greece would run out of cash, at the latest by July and August, when close to €7 billion ($7.9 billion) worth of Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank fall due. This may really collapse the eruozone.

Apart from all the above Data's / Events and Expectations, Technicals gives us a different views. Lets See whats that...

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Weekly Nifty - have a clear answer. When Price moving up MACD and RSI on a clear Negative Divergence.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hope above chart is crystal clear and no more explanations needed here.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart - As Posted on 29th Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 29th Jan, 2015, 9009 was a clear Resistance and get ready for a Sell. See what Happened.

>>> Nifty Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes, We shorted @ 8950. First Target Met. Now looking for 2nd and 3rd Target very soon.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

bank Nifty completed 1-5 Upmove. Game Over.

>>> WEEKLY STOCK CHARTS <<<

>>> CANBK - As Posted Last Weeekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Canara Bank given last week - as a Clear Sell,wrote as, wave B forming a rising wedge. See what happened.

>>> CANBK - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Yes - its was a 15 days struggle for the stock the break the wedge. We had shorted and booked some part profit. Expect more slide next week also.

>>> ASHOKLEY - As Posted on 29th Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ashok Leyland - As per our last weekly Update - Our Short Hit SL @ 66. Later on 29th Jan 2015 we re-entered short @ 69 Level. As expected Price started falling - Highly bearish since there is a Bearish Engulfing candle stick Pattern on the upper trend line - Lets see more details on Hourly Chart also.

>>> ASHOKLEY - Hourly Chart - Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price resisted exactly from the Red colour Middle line on Hourly chart, Price almost made a free fall from the level we gave. Now If the bottom of the channel breaks, Free Free Fall once again. We are holding our shorts for a big gain.

>>> YES BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes We shorted @ 880 and Holding. Lets wait for a good fall.

>>> Performance for the Month end of Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Write to us for details of our service @ niftyforall@yahoo.com.

Resistance 9009. Get Ready to Sell

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Volatile session today due to Expiry. As per chart given above, 9009 is a good Resistance. Good chance to Sell near the Resistance for a Fall.

>>> Ashok LeyLand <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Earlier our Short hit Stop Loss - As per chart we updated on last weekly review. But today we shorted exactly near 69 and stock slide towards 65 and made a part profit at 66 for Rs.24000. So what happened really - was explained above on the chart. Yesterday break out on Price was washed away by today's engulfing pattern. RSI which makes a negative divergence so far also failed its minor break out. As per EW, it looks like 1-5 upmove got completed and if the price remains inside the channel for tomorrow also, then expect a big slide in coming days. Cheers!!!

Copper - Buy on Dips for a Relief Rally

Dear All,

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

The fall was marked as 1-5 and Price on the last leg of 5th wave downside. RSI confirms the accumulation. Just keep buying on dips for a good rally. Cheers!!!

Resisted @ 8985-8970

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wave C almost completed. As we wrote Yesterday 8950 to 9000 should act as a resistance, today price made a high of 8985 and came down towards 8900.

>>> Nifty 5 Mins Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Lets see in detail @ 5 Mins chart - how the price move inside Wave C. The current upmove shall be 1-5 or abc. Hence a possible correction for Wave 4 on the downside possible if the middle line gets break. Lets wait and See.

Alexis Tsipras will decide Nifty's Fate

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After lot of failure in counts, finally the expanding triangle kept moving on the upperside as an extended 5th wave. Lot of positive news flow kept the bull alive so far. As per the channel, Price faces resistance between 8950-9000. Cross above may see another round of rally towards 9190.

Weekly Review - 27.01.2015

Dear All,

>>> What Exactly is Quantitative Easing :- <<<

The European Central Bank has launched quantitative easing – which will pump huge amounts of cash into the eurozone economy to try to get it growing again.

That money, freshly printed by the ECB, will be used to buy financial instruments called bonds, which are sold by governments, and companies, to raise funds.

Investors buy them, lending that cash for a fixed period, at the end of which they get it back, plus interest, though that’s not guaranteed.

By buying bonds, and getting money into the real economy the ECB also hopes to head off deflation – which is when prices fall and the economy stagnates as people put off purchases waiting for things to get cheaper.

At the moment those bonds are sat in high street banks’ vaults, waiting to mature, the ECB will buy 60 billion euros worth a month from March with the idea that the money freed up will be lent out to households and businesses who need loans.

The ECB pitched its bond-buying programme on the high side at 60 billion a month, going for what some analysts called the “shock and awe” effect.

Mark Haefele, Global Chief Investment Officer with UBS, told euronews: “The size was bigger than people anticipated, but more importantly it is open-ended, so the ECB can do more if they think it is necessary. And the other thing is that there is risk-sharing involved, so in some ways it is a historic announcement.”

Risk sharing means the central banks of eurozone members are on the hook for eighty percent of the value of the bonds if their governments default and do not pay back the money promised when the bonds mature.

German officials, including Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble are not happy, fearing some eurozone governments now will not make essential economic reforms as the pressure will have been taken off them.

The theory is that the effects of QE will mean ordinary Europeans and the region’s businesses will be able to get loans more easily as the banks have more cash to lend.

That is what happened with quantitative easing in the United States, but so far QE has failed to significantly boost the Japanese economy

Plans to pump out more money also pushed down the value of the euro against other currencies which helps the region’s exporters.

But it all depends on the high street banks lending on the money they get from the European Central Bank for those bonds.

If they don’t do that confidence is not restored and the ECB’s plans will have failed.

If the “big bazooka” doesn’t work then the whole single currency experiment is at risk, which will be a massive problem for the region’s leaders.

Obama's visit will not be a big event as far as stock markets, The major trigger for the market early next week will be the outcome of the election results in Greece. Greece election verdict can impact and upset the upward run in the Indian markets and a steep unsustainable fall can be witnessed provided anti Euro government comes in place in Greece.

Once Greece exits, it will create a ripple effect and unrest in other Euro countries like Portugal and Italy which are under severe pressure and unable to revive their economies.

The Indian markets will be shut on Monday on account of Republic Day celebrations. The volatility is likely to be limited to the gap-up or gap-down start on Tuesday.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart - As Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last week - a possible Target on the upper channel as shown above.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Made 8866 High. ABC looks completed.

>>> Nifty 5 Mins Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is a 5 mins chart. Its a clear Extension wave, after 8365 and 8550 entire scenario changed. Bulls made a extension wave and trapped the bear and short sellers. No doubt that the continuous flow of many good news from RBI Rate cut to ECB's easing - where a real vitamin for Bull.

Price if breaks below the band, shown above shall be the first sign of weakness. Else we may see some more upside.


>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

20150 shall be the lakshman Rekha. Though friday high 20167 with a Red colour Hanging man on the top of the daily chart - may give some meaning to smile for the bear. But in past we have such failed candle sticks pattern. So its better to wait and watch.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above hourly chart is really a disturbing one, even after 17512 or 4th wave marked, the upmove looks shaky. Really a Cat on the Wall. Must wait for a meaningful trigger.

>>> Charts of the Week <<<

Lets See some effective charts for next week. We may or may not have positions in the below mentioned chart. We may trigger Entry and Exit as per Index or Stock's price movement.

>>> Ashok Leyland <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again AshokLeyland inside our Ring. 64.5 looks as a key resistance. As shown on above chart, final leg has almost retraced 78.6% of previous 1-3 waves. Looks very interesting.

>>> CanBk <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have been discussing Canara Bank since last few days. Since then both index - Nifty and Bank Nifty made a remarkable upmove. CanBK also moved up, but still below our Resistance level. As shown on the above chart, Price may move up only if able to close above the key resistance line.

Last two days Price making a Red colored Hanging man. A Raising wedge like pattern also looks bearish, if breaks on the downside may trigger a sell off.

>>> Performance till 23rd Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

write to us on niftyforall@yahoo.com for details of our service.

Nifty Vs ECB

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - 5 Mins Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After price broken out form 8360 - Nifty kept moving up as shown above chart, inside a channel. Every Resistance has been taken out by a Gap Up Opening. So where is Nifty going. As shown on above chart - Price moving as 1-5 waves. 4th Sub wave ended at 8690 and started its last upmove. Lets See in details how the 5th wave moving on.

>>> Nifty - 5 Mins Chart - Last leg <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is assumed as a last leg of upmove as 1-5. Today 8727 gave support to bulls as shown on above chart. If 8778 or 8792 unable to cross - Assume Bulls are stepping out from Nifty. Caution advised.

>>> CANBK - Follow Up <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bearish Raising Wedge ??? We are holding our Shorts. Lets See. Cheers!!!

ECB to decide the Trend

Dear All,

There are some major news which pushing or holding index on the sky.

Unexpected RBI Rate Cut.

IMF on Jan. 20 announced India’s GDP growth would actually outstrip that of China by next year.

Obama's Visit to India.

Now Waiting for ECB Decision. “Expectations are so high that no matter what they do, someone, somewhere, will not be happy.” says Sarhan Capital CEO Adam Sarhan. “ Investors in the U.S. are very focused on the ECB, because the eurozone is one of the largest trading partners for the U.S. and so many U.S. multi-nationals derive a large portion of their earnings from Europe.”

Now its ECB to decide the Trend next.


>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ofcourse Price moving towards or near to 8860+. But the price going to correct before that should be decided by ECB.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken down - Both Price and RSI signaled a Bearish tone.


>>> INDUSINDBK - Follow Up <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are still holding our short on IndusInd Bank. Waiting patiently for a good correction. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Resistance @ 8707. Support @ 8595,8528 & 8472

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After breaking 8550 - entire pattern changed. As shown on above daily chart, Price may move towards upper channel. Lets see detail on hourly chart too.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above chart shows - Price has completed Wave (c) or (iii) as resisted @ 8707. If unable to cross may see a correction till 8595, 8528 and 8472. A correction is a buying opportunity and my move towards the upper channel as shown on above daily chart. Cheers!!!

Happy Bulls Vs Sad Bears - Testing our Patience.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Entire day remained above the trend line. 8570 high made a closed near 8550 resistance. RSI was not moving with price, hence confusion on bulls side.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty - trading inside the wedge like pattern. We need confirmation for any further move.

>>> CANBK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again a Rising wedge pattern. Its a corrective upmove as A-B-C. Wave C completed 100% of Wave A @ 468. Get ready for a correction if unable to cross above the wedge with a good strength. We are on short side. Lets Wait and see how it works. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 19.01.2015

Dear All,

Last week to January 16, Sensex soared 664 points or 2.4 per cent to close at 28,122 while Nifty surged 229 points or 2.8 per cent to end at 8,514.

On Thursday, the Sensex gained 729 points to record its highest single-day gain since May 18, 2009, led by financials after the RBI surprised the markets by reducing the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 per cent with immediate effect.

Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in Indian equities worth Rs 3,248 crore for the week, as per provisional stock exchange data.

Key events that shaped the week :-

Industrial production increased at a five-month high of 3.8 per cent in November, while Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rose to 5 per cent in December from 4.38 per cent in the previous month, primarily due to a rise in food prices.

On the other hand, the wholesale price index-based inflation inched up to 0.11 per cent in December, snapping a six-month easing trend as food costs jumped up year-on-year.

The trade deficit for the month of December decreased by 44 per cent at $9.43 billion hitting a ten month low mainly on account of falling imports due to slump in crude prices.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above daily chart - suggest 8550 and 8630 as a key resistance.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

I think the above Nifty charts had a clear picture with explanations.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A bearish Hanging man candle at the top of the triangle, RSI on the edge of break out. If price and RSI moves above - price may jump towards new high.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above hourly chart - had a different picture. Possibly its an irregular ABC correction. If so, then 19320 or 19410 must be a key resistance for bull.

>>> Stock of the Week <<<

>>> Asian Paints <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Asian paint almost completed 1-5 Upmove and We had a Grave stone doji -last friday. Caution advised it unable to cross above 860. We are on Short side.

>>> Performance till 16th Jan 2015 <<<

>>> click the image to see on full screen <<<

For details of service send email to niftyforall@yahoo.com

Resistance 8550. Caution Advised.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - As Posted on 12th Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On 12th Jan, 2015 - Posted the possibilities of Nifty moving towards 8484 and 8550. Lets See what happened.

>>> Nifty Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A Surprise Rate Cut from RBI - Triggered a 250 Points Rally in Nifty. Almost A-B-C Wave completed as shown on above chart. 8550 should be the key resistance, If crosses above then it may turn the table in favour of Bulls. Friday trade should decide the trend. Cheers!!!

Cat on a Wall ????

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Almost a cat on the wall. RSI on the edge of break out. Price below 50dma. So one must wait for the cat to decide.

>>> Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So far bulls are holding safely. Nifty Supp @ 8245, 8211, 8176 & 8127. Below 8065 Nifty may continue its fall badly. Instead if Price able to break above 8356 or 8364 - Bulls may swing with full strength. Should cover all your shorts. So lets Wait and See.

>>> INDUSINDBK - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote Yesterday to sell Indus Ind bank. See what happened.

>>> INDUSINDBK - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Almost made a low of 811. We had a Part Profit for Rs.10K also. Now if breaks below 810, expect a good fall again. Cheers!!!