Week End or Dead End ???

As I have intimated about H&S many time here in this Blog - Today we saw a Break down.

Now What's Next??? - Where are we ?? - Are we still going to fall ??? or a Recovery from here ??? - its a Million dollar question in every one's Mind.

>>>Today Nifty made a low of 5070 and closed at 5080 which is exactly 50% retracement of Rise from 4531 to 5628.85.

>>> Hourly Chart Shows that the fall is yet to be completed, a Possible upmove for sw(4) then a fall can't be ruled out as shown on the chart above.

>>> If there is a Scope for further fall then whats the Target ???

>>> Nifty can fall upto 4950 which is 61.8% retracement. So another 130 Pts fall in Nifty is not ruled out, which is exactly the Target of Head & Shoulder formation.

>>>> TATA STEEL <<<<

When Tata Steel Call Generated as on 03rd May, 2012.

Tata Steel after the Fall as on 04th may,2012

Krishnan Venkatesh (5/3/2012 2:01:44 PM): ****STOCK ALERT***** TATA STEEL - Looks Weak if breaks and Traders below 449 on Spot. Resistance 460/464. May slide Upto 430,415 & 400. http://niftyforall.blogspot.in

Krishnan Venkatesh (5/4/2012 2:32:51 PM): First Target in Tata Steel - 430 done. Small Traders Should Book Profit & Must Enjoy

>>>>HDFC BANK<<<

Above Chart is HDFC BANK - has broken the long term Trend Line - Hope HDFC BANK can fall Next week.

>>>Wish You all a Happy Week end <<<<

Where is the Bottom???

Nifty made a Low of 5181.2 which is Exactly 78.6% of Previous Rise - sw(1) as marked on chart. Now if this Low held for tomorrow then possibility of Upmove from here - where I can assure this is sw(5) Only. Else if breaks then the last chances of sw(5) become void. Break below today's low confirm that we are on the sw(4) and need to touch the Bottom line of H&S - which should be between 5140-5150. Hope this can be a Bottom to complete the sw(4). But looking at many stocks movement today - its hard to hold today low 5181 tomorrow - may be we shall slide near to 5150.

Tata Steel today Breaks an Important Support near 449, I hope its correcting as 3-3-5 as we are in last leg as 5(3) fall as this fall may try to fill the gap left at 425 as shown on chart. A sell call has been send to my Clients in this regard. Lets see

Oh - Still Inside H&S !!!

Phewww - Nifty Still Inside the H&S - Today made a Gap up Opening above the Trend line as marked on chart - But Closing below the Trend line shows like a "throw over" also Unable to close above 200 HrMA is a matter to concern for Bulls, may favour for Bears if continue to stay below this. - So Now I have to give regular Bull count as well as Bear count as "Alt" inside white shade.

1.) As per Bullish count we have finished sub(4) at 5154.85. Ongoing wave as sw5(1) and today down move as (2) at 38.6% retracement as marked on chart. Immediate Support at 5222 as marked on chart - break below this may enable bears to come down to fill the Gap Left at 5186 or 5199 again.

2) Alternative Bear count as we are still on sw(4) as c(4) has completed today 5279 which is 61.8% retrace from the Previous fall from 5341 to 5161. If this is true then a fall below 5154 or even low can't be ruled out.

Earlier on Monday I gave a Buy Call on Nifty to my clients which gave nearly 30 Pts Profit today Morning- which was erased on the later part of the trading. But SL is still on Hold. The Call is given below.

(4/30/2012 3:01:58 PM): ****NIFTY-ALERT***** Positional / BTST:- Buy Nifty Spot Only above 5247. SL below 5220. Target 5330.

Hope 5220 wont get broken for those who are holding the Long still. Lets see tomorrow - Cheers.

MAY (be) SPECIAL - IDFC

IDFC - May Day Special.

IDFC has completed sw(2) and getting ready for a Bull Roar 3rd Wave Upmove.
Short to Medium Term Investors Start Buying above 127 for a Good Target in Coming Days. (cmp:120.95)

Head or Tail ???

Nifty still inside a Valid H&S Only - 200 Hr MA is 5156 and 5166 is a Channel Line above that H&S may get Invalidate - On the Contrary below 5222 (this count is invalidate) Nifty may see a good Sell off - as sw(c)(5) may get continue for a fall below 5154. As i said on Friday - usually H&S formed on the lower side of the Consolidation wont be effective. So a Buy call has been given to clients today with a SL of 5222. Lets See on Wednesday. Cheers!!!

Head & Shoulder again ???

Seems like a Head and Shoulder - But EW says if 5154 Hold for tomorrow or Monday - then sub wave c(5) is a truncated one, else the fall be upto 5130/5110 and 5080. But mostly a H&S formed on the Bottom side wont get effected as we say last time at 20th Dec,2011 @ 4530 also. Above 5270 this H&S get Invalidate, hope new Bullish (count) move to start any time.
Today my call on Yahoo Messenger as

*****NIFTY-ALERT***** :- If Nifty Spot breaks below 5190 then can Slide Upto 5150 / 5130 / 5110 & 5080. SL above 5223

which hit 5154 low (fitst Target) and closed at 5186. Renewed SL of 5197 also hit - as this call no more live.

April Expired !!!

Nifty Expired April serious with out much Noice.
Today I had a Buy call on Yahoo Messenger as follows.

(4/26/2012 2:47:43 PM): ****NIFTY-ALERT**** Buy Nifty Spot near 5180-85. SL below 5160. Target 5230/5250 & 5265.

Nothing more to say today. Lets wait and see how Nifty moves tomorrow.

Enough is Enough !!!

Nifty seems to have completed Double zigzag now. Second Part marked inside Square seems to have completed 3-3-5 Flat Correction which took support at 5161. Tomorrow Resistance @ 5211 & 5235.

Cat on a Wall again ?

As said Yesterday if we are in sw(c) for a fall, then today upmove should be 4th one. In that case tomorrow 5242 or 5261 plays an Important resistance as marked on chart as its a 38.2% & 50% vice versa. Break above these levels shall invalidate the present count and possibility of Bulls trigger is high near 5310 to 5320 as there a two resistance line on the Upper side channel. We shall see up to 5600 if the upper channels gets broken.

On the Contrary if 5220 & 5180 gets broken again, fall upto 5100 - 5080 as said Yesterday can't be ruled out.

Return of Bears!!!

Its the Most painful consolidation like when market takes double zigzag or a-b-c-d-e type of consolidation - Often Stock Broking firms or Brokers has to face the pain of Less volume or Job Loss.

Today My Long call SL got triggered 2 times. First one at 5328 when Long was at 5340-44. Second SL revised at 5310. Even Last Friday SL got triggered at 5302 when Long was at 5295. Of course SL is an Life Saving Boat - As an Analyst every one may feel Bad when Hitting SL. But for the Analyst its a failure of one Call. But from Traders Point of View it a Life saving Number. When Market Crashed after Hitting SL - then one should realize the Importance of Stop Loss in their Trade. So I never feel bad when SL hit, rather should concentrate more to avoid a Long call in such a situation - Be ideal rather than Hitting a SL is my Chant always.

Yes its again A-B-C-D-E type correction - A break out above the Diagonal Pattern is considered as "throw Over" as the Later part of "E" is divided as a-b-c. Since (b) has taken almost 78.6% of (a) as marked on Chart. Now a Previous Island Reversal Gap also failed was added fuel for the fast (c) wave fall for ending the diagonal pattern at "E". Now the Target is 5080 to touch the bottom Line.

Bull - Walking on the Rope

Really sorry for Not Updating Yesterday - due to my Personnel Reason. Yesterday advised my Clients to Buy Nifty near 5195. Today it flared upto 5341 - Achieved the First Target. Given above is the 5 Min Chart - to show how Nifty moving from 5190, as I have already advised and written that the Nearest Bottom is 5180 from where we may rally. Now it seems Nifty is making an Extension waves without breaking the line marked with arrow. As per my view if its sw(5) then 5(3) is going on as marked on chart.

Yesterday Nifty unable to Perform even after breaking the Triangle Break out - as it was Resisted at 50dma as shown on Chart. So even today at the closing Send sms to Clients to Exit or Hold if able to close above 5335 Only. Now tomorrow Nifty should Break 5377.4 to confirm the Bulls Strength - from where I am Expecting a Good Short Covering and Bulls Run also, should achieve the 2nd & 3rd Target as per Buy Call given. Lets wait for Friday Move. Cheers!!!

Bulls are a Step Away !!! Get Ready !!!

Nifty Achieved the First Target 5275 and Made a High of 5295. We are a Step Away from Bulls Trigger. As marked on chart Bulls need to Break the Trend Line @ 5306 for "Bulls Rally". 5335 & 5377 are the Important Resistance to Watch there after.

Gave a Buy Call on Bank Nifty in Yahoo Messenger above 10,420. Now as given on chart if Bank Nifty able to Break Tomorrow above 10540 then a Fresh Bulls Rally to Begin as shown on chart with Trend Line.

Smells like Bulls move?

Unlike a-b-c-d-e it seems there is still hope of 5(1)(2). As Friday's low 5186 still on Hold today move looks like a Bulls Move. As shown on chart sw(2)-a-b-c is on. Now it seems (c) has retraced 61.8% of (a) which is 5190 looks like the end of sw(2). In that case sw(5)(3) must have started - means 5275 / 5303 / 5330 & 5430 (atleast first 2 Resis) should be taken out to confirm the upmove. As RBI decision for Tomorrow - Bank Nifty Play an Important Role in NIFTY move.

Today have told all the Clients on Yahoo Messenger that 5185 might be the base as off now - and to Buy above 5224 on spot level. Bank Nifty also told to buy on Last week above 10420 with a support of 9900.

Last Leg of Fall !!!

Finally Nifty took its shape as a-b-c-d-e as marked on chart to end its sw(4) journey, as it tested most of our Patience and left the air with lot of un-confirmed bad news or Rumours. As I was saying for the last 3 days 5306 which played as a crucial resistance and made nifty to fall suddenly upto 5186. Now Nifty should end its sw(4) near 5110 or 5093 next week. Magical Last upmove of sw(5) will start any time next week once it touches the Bottom Trend like as marked with an Arrow on chart as the bad news or rumours will be forgotten and Nifty may travel upward with new force. Lets See Next Week. Till then Wish You all a Very Happy Week end and Cheers!!!

Cat on a Wall

As I gave Yesterday Nifty today touched 5289.3 which was near to 5290, But failed to touch 5306. As given on Chart here Nifty has Two important Gaps to be filled and Crosses for a Healthy Upmove. Even today closed below 50Hr Moving Average does not seems to be a good Sign for Bulls. Tomorrow 5306 & 5347 are the major Road Block for Bulls. Cross above these levels may be a Bulls Trigger - else we may see Nifty to move towards or near to 5000 level soon. Infosys Result & Week End closing tomorrow makes an Interesting day ahead. Cheers!!!

Still More Hurdles ?

Nifty Showed some Recovery in the later part of the Trade today. Support 5188 still on Hold. But on going Structure suggest a-b-c, where we are in sw(b) now. An Upmove upto 5306 possible Tomorrow. As today I told to Buy Nifty above 5210 with Support as SL for a Target of 5250 & 5290. First Target Achieved in the first part of the Trade. Tomorrow 5306 Visible on chart. In Case Nifty able to Breaks and Trade above 5306 with Volume, further upmove and Good short Covering not ruled Out. Nifty may Try to Jump and Show Strength above 5338-40 on Spot as its a Clear Bulls Trigger. Lets See!!!

Confusing ?

* Have differentiated Nifty with 2 alternative Counts -
* Yellow Color count & arrow to suggest that 5228 which is 61.8% retrace should Hold on closing basis, which says sw(5)(2) was done for up move.
* As said Yesterday 5188 if Breaks then the alternative count on white color may come into a-b-c-d-e pattern - On which Nifty may touch 5080.

Get Set - Can't Go Still ???

Yes, Nifty fell more than what I predicated last time, Now the fall has retraced exactly 61.8% of previous raise as marked on chart. Now if today downside is sw(2) then Nifty should fill the 2 gaps left to avoid 'Island Reversal' Fall. Tomorrow if 5228 got broken then Last support should be at 5188 - below this level my counts became Invalid and alternative count should come into effect. Lets wait and see!!!

Get Set Go

As I wrote on Wednesday, closing was above 5320 as sw(2) seems to have completed as marked on chart with a-b-c, 'c' has retraced 50% of 'a'. Also a valid break out above the channel seems to be encouraging for Bulls. Monday Bulls should break above 5365 to break the above channel to 'Get Set Go'

Above Eod Chart shows sw(4)or(B) got completed and sw5(3) or sw(C)(3) should start if 5306 holds next week. Wednesday nifty touches 50dma (5307) and closes above is a good sign for Bull. Next week if Bull able to cross 5365 then "Get Set Go"

Need Some Consolidation ???

Yesterday I wrote 5320 as Resistance - which was cleared today by a Gap up. Now Resistance became supp as shown on chart. Also Nifty out of Channel - seems to be need some consolidation as 5380 also working as a Resistance. Tomorrow if the Gap get filled without breaking 5320 then we may move up firmly for Next Target on Nifty. Tomorrow is the Week end closing as there are 2 days Trading Holidays - Interesting things may happen? Lets wait for it. Cheers!!!

HDIL Call given on Yahoo Messenger on Friday - to Buy above 88 with SL of 79. Target 94 & 104. Today got triggered. Now as per Chart here - I hope Sw(2) has done with 61.8% Retracement of Sw(1). As there is a Break Out on Chart - I am Bullish on this Stock on coming day for the Targets

VIP Ind - Call given today on Yahoo Messenger to Buy at 103.75 - Stock moved on Intraday upto 109.4 - I'm Still Bullish with a Target of 114 & 125

Resistance at 5320-30

Nifty facing a Stiff Resistance between 5320-30 - Should break above for further Up move.

Give above is 5 Mins chart - Price travelling inside the Channel - Breaking this channel - Nifty may get its first support at 5285 level which is 23.6% retracement of this up move.

Bulls to Trigger Next Week ??

Nifty Passed 3 Triggers from Bulls as marked on Chart. Now 5340 / 5385 Should be Crossed for the Bulls to Trigger Next Week. RBI meet to Decide on Interest Rate will decide the Trend. As I said on Yahoo Messenger on Clients Nifty Rallied nearly 130 Points to reap the Profit.

Tata Steel - I have been advising on Yahoo messenger as well here to buy from 450 level with a SL of 438. As per Chart given here, Next week if Crosses 468 - then Sky is the Limit. Since the Stock is undergoing 3rd Wave - I am highly Bullish on this Stock in coming days.

Advised clients to Buy Yes bank from 364 Level. Bulls to Trigger above 374. Another Stock which I am Highly Bullish as is also on 3rd wave. Lets wait for the Interest week ahead. Cheers!!!

First Trigger Today ?

As I wrote Yesterday, today it was an Roller Coaster day with Extreme Volatile. Nifty made a Low of 5136 which I wrote Yesterday as 5140. Today first trigger given above 5164 as market on Chart. We need 2 more Break Outs as 5220-30 & 5270-80. Entire Scenario may Become Bullish Once Nifty able to break and trade above 5340 Only. Till then Choppiness with volatility may continue.

Buy call given on yahoo Messenger Yesterday and today also with a SL of 438 on Closing Basis. First Target 468-70 and 500+ Soon. Cheers!!!

Trigger it Tomorrow ?

Nifty seems to be making more and more complicated waves every day. Breaking the Yellow lines @ 5180 may take Nifty to white line which may be 5140-5150. Upper side Yellow line should be above 5110-20 for a move up to 5230-40. Bulls gain strenth Only Above 5270-80. Heavy Selling may emerge if breaks below 5140. Expiry day may give more Volatile so Get Ready for a Roller Coaster, because tomorrow is a 'Trigger day'. Cheers!!!

Bears fails to Break 200dma - Seems like a double Bottom on chart - as of now it seems A-B-C got completed. Nifty should break key Resis 5280 & 5330 to confirm its Strength. Lets see

Near 200dma

Nifty Near 200dma - Broken important Trend Line - May Target for 5120-40 & 5040-5080.

Any thing Left for Bulls ???

As I said on Last Friday - break below 5172 fall can be there.Refer Friday Post. But today we will find out Is there any way still Open for Bulls, Yes there is!!! as per chart attached above its still sw(5)(2) is on like abc-x-abc-x-abc. Two possibilities in this count. 1) sw(2) is completed and sw(3) started or (c) of (5) is still left. as marked with arrow. If 5330 broken then sw(3) is confirmed up move continuous else a fall to complete (c) and upmove to start as marked with chart. Counts become Negated if Breaks below 5172.

Daily Chart shows there is a Possible Flag formation. 200dma & 38.2% Retracement may give support next week. Bulls should break above the channel for a strong upmove. Lets wait!!!

Bears Came Back !!!

Yes Bears took Upper Hand on Bulls - as today's fall has Negated previous count and I have Re-counted with the Previous alternate sw(4). Here I have attached Chart with full sub Count of sw(4) A-B-C. Todays fall confirmed that we are in sw(4)(c). It seems we are on the last leg of fall ie..sw(4)(c)(5). As shown on Chart we are heading towards (Target1)5120 after breaking 5171 which was the nearest Bottom. As sw(A) has 457 points then sw(C) must fall from 5499.40 - 457 = Target2 5042. Lets see!!!

Bull Bang with Break Out

Yes, Bull today Bang with two good Break Out as shown on Chart. Today also alerted all the client on Yahoo messenger to buy above 5297, Nifty Zoomed to a High of 5371. Two Targets 5335 & 5366 got achieved. Tomorrow 5397 & 5342 need to take out for entering into a Bullish Mode. Lets wait and see how the Bull is Stronger enough to Break these Levels. Cheers

Tata Steel also Break Out..Let See the Bulls Play Tomorrow.

Need a Strong Break Out for Bulls

As written Yesterday Nifty did not violated the 78.6% Re-tracement on closing basis as shown on Chart. Seems like a double bottom also. Tomorrow nifty need to break above the channel for a Interim Bullish as marked on chart. Above 5297 may give a Break out for up move up to 5335 / 5366 / 5397 & 5442. In Case of Breaking on the Lowe side as written Previously - this counts get Negated and Bearish counts should be Viewed. Lets Wait and See.

Retracement still On. Still Hope on Bulls

IHS failed. But still Hope on Bulls. sw(2) seems to be retracing 78.6% on sw(1) which is exactly today low 5239.Also ongoing sw(2)(c) is alomost doing 161.8% of sw(2)(a) which is 5225 as marked on chart. These two supports may give boost to Bulls tomorrow, ELSE these counts gets Negated and should follow the Alternative Count for continuation of sw(4).
Lets wait and See

Last Hope for Bulls

IHS broken today. Even though still inside the Channel as marked on chart.
Last support exist at 5294, if breaks then fall upto 5230 to fill the gap as marked on chart.
Lets for Monday. Cheers!!!

IHS on formation - Supp 5330-5335

As written Yesterday - Nifty broken 5420 and achieved the Target 5370.
Now Nifty seems to be forming a IHS as marked on chart. If able to get support at 5330-5335, then upswing should be fast and furious. Upswing shall be upto 5410 / 5460 / 5500. Since tomm is a Budget day, more sports left to watch. Cheers!!!