Support 5800, 5720 & 5657

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As wrote and cautioned yesterday, Nifty started falling down. Support 5800, 5720 and 5657. Lets See.

>>> AMBUJA <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ambuja facing Resistance near 187, if not crossed then expect more fall in coming days. All my clients holding short with Part Profit booked at 180 for Rs.10,000/-. More fall likely.

>>> YES BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Bank ready for more fall. We had a short on Yes Bank and Booked First Target at 272 or Rs.6000/-. Though More fall likely in this counter.

>>>> TITAN <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Titan looks weak and if trades below the channel as shown on chart, should fall more. We had a Sell call and booked Part Profit for Rs.5000. Lets See.

Caution Advised

Dear All,

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

5912 - Unable to cross today raised concern and so CAUTION ADVISED. Macd also in sell mode. Possible for correction from here onwards. Lets See.

>>> GODREJIND - As Updated Yeterday <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

GodrejInd - almost near the second target. Profit nearly 1000x23 = Rs.23000/-

>>> UCO BANK <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Uco Bank Gave to us Rs.12000 Profit. Exited fully due to caution. Lets See.

Resistance 5910 & 6070

Dear All,

India's August trade deficit narrows:-

India's trade deficit for the month of August narrowed to $10.9 billion, versus $12.26 billion in July. The deficit narrowed on the back of improving exports and declining imports, and was down 11% month-on-month.

While exports stood at $26.14 billion in the month of August as against $25.83 billion in July (up 1.2% month-on-month), the imports came in at $37.05 billion versus $38.10 billion in July. Imports saw a decline of 2.7% month-on-month.

Imports for FY14 till August were reported at $197.8 billion, a rise of 1.7% year-on-year. Exports on the other hand grew 3.9% YoY, and stood at $124.43 billion in the period April-August.

Gold imports declined significantly to $0.65 billion versus $2.2 billion month-on-month.

Last week, stating that a long-term stability in rupee can be driven only be a lower Current Account Deficit (CAD), Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) in its latest report has said that it sees a likely up tick in India's exports.


>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty crossed 5884 as given on the weekly review. So Now Next Resistance levels are 5910 and 6070. Lets see.


>>> LICHSGFIN <<<

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LicHsgFin achieved first Target after a good break Out.


>>> GODREJIND <<<

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GodjrecInd also done first Target.


>>> Larsen & Tubro - As Updated on 06th Sep, 2013<<<

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>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

LT met all target. But for performance side we take only first Target. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 10.09.2013

Dear All,

IS THE WORST OVER FOR RUPEE????? :-

Raghuram Rajan's debut on Wednesday as the new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor was well-received and he immediately unveiled a slew of proposals to support the rupee.

This has raised hopes that the RBI will now adopt a new approach to defending the rupee, as the extent to which it's defence strategy has worked so far is hotly debated.

While the RBI has been intervening heavily in both spot and forward markets to support the currency, especially when it nears its record lows, there are technical signs that the rupee is set for some near-term consolidation.

The Fibonacci Retracement, a widely used technical tool that charts and predicts patterns in currency movements, signals an eventual move for the rupee to as high as 63 levels from current 66 levels.




>>>> NIFTY WEEKLY - As given on last weekly Review <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week said - Weekly chart had a Pipe Bottom and Closed above 50% Fib Level and also saved 5380. Wrote the Possibility of U Turn.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

As said last week Nifty took a U turn. So the Upmove should continue next week also.

>>> NIFTY DAILY - As given on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As per Daily Chart given on last weekly review - Macd and Rsi gave us a Buy signal. So we saw what was the result this week.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
I hope no need to explain what i have mentioned on daily chart as i feel my chart speaks out every thing. In simple get ready to see more fire works from Bulls.

>>> NIFTY HOURLY - As Updated on Last Weekly Review <<<

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Last week's Hourly chart - told about the need to cross the trend line.

>>>> Happened and Yet to <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So this week hourly chart speak out 2 bullish signs. 1) Trend Line cross Over. 2) IHS Break out. So Targets should be 5720 and 5880 Soon.

>>> BANK NIFTY - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last Weekly Review - Said about Bank Nifty has completed 127.2% for wave (c)/(iii) and formed a doji.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So this week we saw the result - Bank Nifty bounced form the low and gave a clear break out on both MACD and RSI. Crossed and closed above 23.6% Fib level confirmed the Next two targets as shown on chart.

>>> BLOCK BUSTER CHARTS OF THE WEEK <<<

>>> YES BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> IDFC - As Updated on 02nd Sep, 2013<<<

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>>> Happend and Yet to <<<

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IDFC touched 87 and i feel 90 should be the logical next target.

>>>> KTK BANK - as Updated on 03rd Sep, 2013 <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happend and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> ANDHRA BANK <<<

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>>> LARSEN & TUBRO - As Updated on 05th Sep, 2013 <<<

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>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

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LT met my first target and made a good money. still more upside left next week also.

>>> PERFORMANCE (so far in the month of Sep 2013) <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<
We invite queries on niftyforall@yahoo.com

Key Resistance 5606 & 5616

Dear All,

The rupee appreciated in early trade after the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Raghuram Rajan lifted market sentiment yesterday by announcing a slew of measures.

To provide exporters/importers greater flexibility in risk management, RBI enhanced the limit available to exporters to 50%. The limit for importers was raised to 25%.

RBI also offered a window to banks to swap fresh foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposit or FCNR(B) dollar funds. These are mobilised for at least three years, at a fixed rate of 3.5% a year.

"We have decided the current overseas borrowing limit of 50% of the unimpaired tier-I capital would be raised to 100% and the borrowings mobilised under this provision can be swapped with RBI at the option of the bank at a concessional rate of 100 basis points below the ongoing swap rate prevailing in the market," Rajan said yesterday in his speech.

After taking charge as the new RBI governor, Rajan postponed the mid-quarter review of its monetary policy by a couple of days to September 20. The US Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled on September 17-18, is expected to indicate when the US Fed might start tapering its stimulus programme.

Meanwhile IMF has said scope of easing monetary stance in India is very limited and it might have to be tightened due to high inflation.

Rating agency Moody's Investors Service today downgraded the subordinated debt (subdebt) and junior subordinated debt ratings of 11 Indian banks.The 11 banks affected are 8 public sector banks and three private sector banks.

Public Sector Banks

- Bank of Baroda (deposits Baa3 stable, BFSR D/BCA ba2 negative)

- Bank of India (deposits Baa3 stable, BFSR D/BCA ba2 negative)

- Canara Bank (deposits Baa3 stable, BFSR D/BCA ba2 negative)

- IDBI Bank Ltd (deposits Baa3 stable, BFSR D-/BCA ba3 stable)

- Indian Overseas Bank (deposits Baa3 negative, BFSR D-/BCA ba3 negative)

- State Bank of India (deposits Baa2 stable, BFSR D+/BCA ba1 stable)

- Syndicate Bank (deposits Baa3 stable, BFSR D/BCA ba2 negative)

- Union Bank of India (deposits Baa3 stable, BFSR D/BCA ba2 negative)

Private Sector Banks

- Axis Bank Limited (deposits Baa2 stable, BFSR D+/BCA baa3 stable)

- HDFC Bank Limited (deposits Baa2 stable, BFSR D+/BCA baa3 stable)

- ICICI Bank Limited (deposits Baa2 stable, BFSR D+/BCA baa3 stable)

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty crossed all our resistance given earlier and now looks like an IHS. If able to trade above 5616 then important changes may happen, else sell may continue. Lets wait and see.

>>> YES BANK - As Updated on 30th Aug, 2013<<<

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>>> As Updated on 02nd Sep, 2013 <<<

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>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

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All Target done on Yes Bank - Looks like it can move further. Lets See.

>>> KTK BANK - As Updated on 03rd Sep, 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

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Yes look for a Target of 89 and 102 Soon on KTK Bank.

>>> L&T <<<

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LT should rally if breaks above the channel as shown on chart. All my clients holding LT and Booked some Part Profit too.

>>> ANDHRA BANK <<<

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Andhra Bank - We are HOlding with Part Profit Booked. Good Break Out and seems like worst is over. Ready for a Good or Big Rally.

Resistance 5452, 5481 & 5524

Dear All,

Raghuram Rajan appointed as the 23rd RBI governor :-

Raghuram Rajan today took over as the 23rd RBI governor.

Rajan took over the reins of the central bank from D Subbarao at a time when there is a slump in confidence in both the economy and the currency.

So what are the Challenges for him ???

Rajan has few policy options to revive the rupee but one thing he can do immediately is explain to financial markets more clearly what steps the central bank is taking and the thinking behind them. Investors and economists have complained that the bank has caused unnecessary confusion with some pronouncements.

The big question is whether the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who famously predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, will take the helm of the Reserve Bank of India with a whisper or a bang. In other words, will he take his time or come out with fresh policy announcements like Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who launched a massive stimulus package within weeks of taking office earlier this year.

Another pressing concern for markets is whether Rajan plans to dismantle any of the mishmash of measures, including a hike in short-term interest rates, the central bank has unveiled since mid-July to prop up the rupee. Economists have expressed concern the steps could further damage the ailing economy.

Rajan, aware markets are scrutinising everything he says for clues about his intentions, has been circumspect in public, revealing little about whether he will pursue the policies of his predecessor, Duvvuri Subbarao, or change tack.

Either way, economists expect him to hold fire with any major measures until after the U.S. Federal Reserve meets on Sept 17-18, when it might announce a pivotal shift in its stimulus programme.

"ROCK STAR ACADEMIC IMAGE"

Rajeev Malik, an Indian-born economist at CLSA Singapore, fears Rajan's "rock star academic image" could be a hindrance. "That is because it has generated unrealistic hope that he has some magical prescription to fix our problems," he wrote in the Business Standard newspaper on Tuesday.

Analysts expect Rajan to improve the central bank's communication with markets, which could help in restoring confidence among investors. Outgoing governor Subbarao has been sharply criticised for failing to communicate the central bank's exchange rate policy effectively.

"One is tempted to say that if Mr Rajan can't help restore confidence in India's battered currency, nobody can," said Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy. "His immediate priority must be to restore credibility to Indian monetary policy which, over the past several weeks, has been a shambles."

Many economists say Rajan will refrain from taking action until after the U.S. Fed meeting, which is widely seen announcing a tapering off in the bank's huge bond-buying programme.

He faces a dilemma on policy rates, which other hard-hit emerging market economies such as Brazil and Indonesia have raised to support their currencies. Doing so in India could undermine economic growth further - already running at a decade low - but cutting them could hit the rupee.

Rajan is seen as close to Chidambaram and the pair had adjoining offices in the finance ministry "but he is a man of his own" stressed one policymaker who has been involved in recent meetings between the RBI and the ministry.

>>> NIFTY <<<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ongoing corrective upmove for sw(II) should find resistance at 5452,5481 and 5524. Lets See.

Missile Attack on (NIFTY) Syria

Dear All,

Russian radar detected the launch of two ballistic "objects" in the Mediterranean Sea on Tuesday but there was no sign of a missile strike on the Syrian capital Damascus, Russia's state-run RIA news agency said.

The Russian Embassy in Syria said there were no signs of a missile attack or explosions in Damascus, state-run Itar-Tass reported.

Israel said it was unaware of any ballistic missile launch being conducted in the eastern Mediterranean.

The United States has been preparing for a possible military strike in Syria following what it says was a chemical weapons attack by Syrian government forces. Damascus denies carrying out such an attack.

S&P May downgrade India :-

Meanwhile Standard & Poor's considers chances of a credit ratings downgrade for India higher than for Indonesia, a news report said on Tuesday, citing comments made by an analyst of the credit rating agency at a briefing in Seoul.

S&P analyst Kim Eng Tan also said there was more than a one-in-three chance for India rating cut within two years, according to the report.

S&P has a "BBB-minus" rating on India with a "negative" outlook. A downgrade would push Asia's third largest economy to "junk" status.

S&P rates Indonesia at "BB-plus."

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

Yes when Nifty was trading at 5510 said to stay cautious as Nifty broken important support 5528. So Now Nifty on a expanding triangle, looks like more fall coming. Lets See.

>>> KTK BANK <<<

>>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

KTK Bank achieved first Target. Now if 74 holds today - then possible bounce back once again. Lets See.

>>> DABUR <<<

>>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

Dabur - 169.50 Resistance - Not crossed and Sell triggered. Clients Booked Near first Target. Expect more fall if Resistance is not crossed. Cheers!!!

Resistance 5606 & 5720

Dear All,

India's manufacturing sector activity contracted for the first time in over four and a half years in August as both output and business orders witnessed a significant decline, an HSBC survey said today.

Since May, the index was barely managing to remain above the crucial 50 mark that divides growth from contraction. But business conditions in the manufacturing sector deteriorated during August for the first time in over four years, with both output and new orders falling at faster rates.

According to HSBC, amid reports of fragile economic conditions and subdued client demand, new orders placed at Indian manufacturers fell in August. Moreover, new business from abroad also declined, ending an 11-month sequence of growth.

The report further noted that input and output price inflation slowed despite the weakening of the currency, which likely reflect the softening demand conditions and, therefore, declining pricing power.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty broken our on chart but should cross some more important resistance like 50% fib level. 5606 and 5720 should resist in days to come. Lot of news floating on both national and international levels may impact nifty. Lets see.

>>> YES BANK <<<

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Yes Bank done first Target today.

>>> IDFC <<<

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IDFC - corrective upmove started with potential upside of 87 and 90.

Cheers!!!