Nifty - Here comes S&P Again !!!

Dear All,

Despite of Bold Action from Govt. on Reforms front, S&P Lowered India's GDP forecast to 5.5%. S&P have already cut India’s sovereign rating of `’BBB-’ to negative from stable in April. Even Moody’s was unimpressed by the reforms and said last week that the measures were too small to affect the country’s sovereign rating.

CRISIL too had slashed its forecast for the country’s GDP growth to 5.5% from 6.5% for this fiscal. HSBC has also cut growth forecast for fiscal 2012-2013.

India’s Planning panel also lowered annual average economic growth rate to 8.2% in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) from the earlier 9% due to lower economic growth and lack of appropriate policy measures.

Mean While PMEA Council Chairman C Rangarajan said today that India's growth rate is expected to pick up in the second half of this fiscal and reach 6.7% for entire 2012-13

He said the agriculture performance this year would also be better than what was expected a few months ago. "Therefore, taking all these factors into account, I expect there will be a growth rate of 6.7% in current (financial) year.

Lets wait and See how S&P going to react on its Rating Front - as Govt of India has taken a very delayed action on Reforms front like FDI / Reducing Subsidy Bills by contracting fiscal Deficit etc., etc., blaw blaw blaw..

>>> NIFTY <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

A small symmetrical triangle break down - confirmed that Nifty shall fall upto 5600 & 5560. Negative Divergence on Hourly chart also confirmed the fall. 5540 which is a second gap may get filled possibly.

>>> HINDALCO <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Hindalco - Was earlier in our List - Shorted and Earned also. Please refer the Performance for this month. Today also went Short -

Chart shows Negative Divergence - Unlike earlier - the counts were little bit changed and looking for a Target of 113.8 & 109 as marked on Chart.

>>> HDIL <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

HDIL - another case of Negative Divergence or Fake Price Movement - As shown on Chart - today have broken a small channel and tomorrow if trades below 88-89 then should fall more.

Lets See!!! Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 22.09.12

Dear All,


GET SET GO ..... Said Govt.

Didi Gone, FDI amended, Cong govt Stable, Nifty & Sensex at a New High...What made these all, What else left to do ?

Nifty Jumped around 450 Points, Rupee at its 4 months High.


1) Govt Cut withholding tax on overseas borrowing by local companies to 5% from 20%. Now Cheaper Funds will flow into Local companies.

2) Fin Ministry also approved Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to encourage small investors to enter the stock market. Retail investors earning less than Rs 10 lakh ($18,400) annually, would be eligible for a 50% tax deduction on investments up to Rs 50,000. The programme will include mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

3) Infrastructure and construction companies, burdened with huge debt, will benefit from the government’s tax measure.

4) Govt. would relax the minimum requirements for Indian carriers to fly overseas.

Inflation, Monetary Policy and External Factors like Euro Crises and Chinese issue remain the same, yet to be assessed going forward.

Weekly Nifty Chart :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Nifty Weekly Chart shows that Price crossed and closed above 61.8% retrace looks bullish. May cross over to 5950 which is 78.6% retrace next.

As per EW theory - On going Wave is C. 5870 is the Logical target for Wave C.


Daily Nifty Chart :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Daily Chart - Both Channels topping out - as 1-5 wave is ending - as its time for correction before a Next Upmove. Possibly a good round of selling next week possible.
May try to fill the first Gap at 5450.

Weekly Bank Nifty :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Bank Nifty Weekly Chart closed above 61.8%. But the Previous High 11433 may act as a Resistance this week.

Daily Bank Nifty :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Daily Chart of Bank Nifty - Have marked here as A-B-C. On going C was should cross 11433 as shown on Weekly Chart and should touch 11620 which is 78.6% retrace of wave A.

>Performance<

Following Excel Sheet is our Sep month Performance So far :-

Performance was down due to Tata Motor which had a gap up Opening a day after FDI bill Passed. Even though advised only small or risky traders to exit / Other to Average. So have deducted Tata Motor as Loss here.

Those who wish to Participate our Calls should call me on 9677924975 or krish_venkatesh@yahoo.com

Cheers!!!

Will Nifty Hold 5527 ???

Dear All,

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen<

Nifty support @ 5527. If breaks then can fall up to 5448.

Political Chaos Vs Nifty

Dear All,

Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee on Wednesday vehemently denied any attempt at communication from the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).

"You may control some channels but you cannot control us. We are transparent. People know our credentials," she added. "I was never informed about FDI decisions," Banerjee reiterated.

"I will stick to my position, come what may...the (TMC) ministers will tender their resignations," she told reporters, a day after she announced withdrawal of support and pull out of ministers, if the government does not go back on its decisions.

Trinamool Congress, the second biggest constituent of the UPA, on Tuesday dealt a major blow to the Manmohan Singh government when it decided to withdraw support on the issue of FDI in retail, diesel price hike, cap on subsidised LPG cylinders and corruption.

She had said that party ministers in the UPA government would meet the prime minister in Delhi and submit their resignations at 3:00 pm on Friday.


>>> NIFTY <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Nifty forming a Pennant formation - a Break below the channel may target 5500 or 5450. Upper side break out may lead to 5660 & 5706.

>>> TATA MOTORS <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Tata Motors - forming a Head & Shoulder - Support at 272, breaks below may lead a fall up to 263 & 257.

>>> HINDALCO <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Hindalco - Complted a-b-c - retracement and broken the support of 114.50. Should fill the gap for a possible low upto 109 & 103

Bull Came with FDI Policy!!!

Dear All,

Sudden announcement of FDI Policy on Friday evening, Made every One surprise. It seems that Every thing was Planned Previously.

RBI also cut CRR by 25 BPS. Now the Question is why RBI refused to Cut for last 4 Session - as they have indicated Inflation as an Important Point of concern. As Diesel Price Hike may Impact 100 BPS on Inflation - is RBI cutting rate at right time.

Even though after Diesel Hike - Many voices are raised that fiscal Deficit shall be More than 1.25 Lak Crore Vs 85K crore Previously.

Nifty as Expected made a Gap Up Opening - made a come back in the afternoon session after RBI cut the Rates.

Now will Nifty cool at least a Bit form here ??

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Nifty Channel shows it faces Resistance near 5650.

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Hourly chart says sw(iii) has been completed near 5650 may correct for sw(iv) which may be near 5500 or 5450 as it may fill the gap left on chart.

Lets see. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 15.09.2012

Dear All,

>> After a Month long waiting Cong. Govt got the courage to Open the doors for FDI in Multi Branch Retail and Civil Aviation Industries. This will pave the way for the much-awaited entry of foreign retail giants such as Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour into the $450 billion retail market, although their footprint will be limited to million-plus cities in states which have agreed to back the measure.

>> The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs also approved disinvestment in public sector units - Oil India (10%), NALCO (12.5%), Hindustan Copper (9.59%), Neyveli Lignite Corporation (5%). This move is likely to fetch Rs 15,000 crore for the government.

The decisions on Friday, along with a go-ahead for disinvestment in four PSUs to mop up Rs 14,000 crore, come within a day of the ruling coalition's decision to raise diesel price by a stiff Rs 5 a litre and cap subsidized cooking gas cylinders to six a year for every household.

>> Foreign carriers were not allowed so far to directly invest in Indian carriers for security reasons, although 49 percent FDI by non-airline players was allowed.

According to civil aviation ministry sources, the directives for the implementation of the policy will be issued within a month.

Cong Govt, Says, Allowing FDI in retail will benefit farmers and the common man the most.

UPA constituent Trinamool Congress set a 72-hour deadline for the government for the roll back of the decision.

TMC said the decision is harmful for the people of the country. “It will allow multi-brand firms to dictate their own terms.”

BJP Said FDI in retail was made under the pressure of "foreign forces".

SP Said "FDI in retail would affect Indian market and agriculture. The move would hit Indian economy as retailers and farmers would be ruined by it,"

BSP also criticised the move by saying, “It will provide to be a fatal for farmers and will make India a slave of multi-national companies.”

CPI(M) Said “The UPA government "cannot give any job but is snatching jobs. It is destroying the livelihood of people through so-called reform measures aimed at pleasing corporates."

So Lets analyse - Is there any Special Features or good things that can help our economy ????

Yes, or May be..

The minimum FDI limit has been set at $100 million. Half of any investment has to be made in infrastructure like cold-storage chains and warehouses. This is designed to help the agricultural sector and India has a severe shortage of these.

Another point is Least 30 per cent of the goods to be sold will have to sourced from local producers, means local producers are going to have a good price for their Products from now onwards.

But the above rules has also been relaxed a bit by the govt that if companies don't want to procure 30 per cent locally, they will have to set up a manufacturing unit. Hence forth many FDI's wants this rule to be relaxed. There is split within the government over this.

The government argues that FDI in multi-brand will give consumers the best deals possible on goods and also get it much-needed money.

Also The government will have the first right to procurement of agriculture products. Fresh agricultural products, including fruits, vegetables, flowers, grains, pulses, fresh poultry, fishery and meal products may be unbranded.

So Market getting ready to cheer on Monday also.

Coming back to Nifty - I was Pointing out that Nifty shows many negative divergence and advised caution. Instead after Friday's move from US QE3 - Nifty had a superb rally of nearly 150+ Points. Many asking or questioning that Is Nifty turned Bullish or Worst is Over????

I dont have any short call on Nifty. Due to caution - I have advised my clients to clear all Positions on the day of German Verdict and made NIL positions. We had some stock specific short calls - which is still open with out meeting Stop loss on friday's rally.

Next my level 5490 get breached and I agree that the Patterns and counts changed, even though I don't feel we may get a Buying opportunity as there is going to be one more gap up.

So whats else we have it more in Nifty lets see..

<< Nifty - Weekly Chart >>

>Click the Chart to see on full screen>

Weekly Chart - 5630 which is our recent high should be watched closely. 5575 & 5673 should be the Weekly Resistance levels.


>Nifty - Hourly Chart<

>Click the chart to see in full screen<

As said on Weekly Chart - 5575 & 5673 shall be the 61.8% & 78.6% retrace of sw(a).

>> Weekly Chart - Ranbaxy <<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Many queries about Ranbaxy - as many had this popular stock in their portfolio. I feel Ranbaxy is on A-B-C pattern - As B wave got over on 04th Sep, 2012 at 578.4. So Now stock may move down for Wave C. So I advice caution for those who where Long, atleast have your Stop Loss, as stock is ready for a deep correction.

Happy Weekend to All. Cheers!!!

Can Friday Hold 5400 - Nifty

Dear All,

There are some queries after Yesterday's Post. Why did I turn Bearish when the News are Positive and Optimistic from Global and Domestic.

First Euro Issue is getting resolved.

After German Verdict - the worries are eased. But the Light is far away - tunnel is longer enough to reach it. Actually Euro faces many crisis which need many solutions for solving it. Reacting for any Positive Like news is very common in Stock Market. Only time has the answer.

Secondly RBI is ready to cut Rates.????

Post IIP Data which has worry on India Inc Increased further as fourteen of the 22 industry groups that make up the manufacturing index - the biggest constituent of the IIP - reported a fall, pushing it into its second straight month of decline.

"There is urgent need for policy action from the government to address the deterioration in fiscal deficit and persistent pullback in private investment. In the event of continued inaction from the government, we see high risk of a potential 'deeper macro stress' scenario," said Morgan Stanley economists in a note.

So RBI to meet on monday to decide the monetary policy, even though many Banks are crying for a rate cut, economist still believe that RBI may hold the rates for the fifth time also.

Actually Nifty is moving up on expectation that RBI may cut Rates. Any disappointment may lead to a Big Fall this time, as the Data's are continuously Negative, Fall in corporate results and Poor strength of the Banks.

So How far the Issue is Bad ???? Yes its Poorer than what we think. Read below..

1) HSBC has cut India's growth to 5.2% from its Previous forecast of 6.2%. It also stated that RBI's Policy as one of the reason for slow down in growth.

2) Bank of America Merrill Lynch says loan growth in India is likely to hit 14-year low, which is bad news for the economy. In spite of RBI refused to cut rates, Banks have reduced the Interest rates - which may impact their Balance sheet in FY13-14. PSU Bank may be worst affected.

3) On going Inflation is much above RBI's predication of 5%. It may even get increase due to Rise in Petrol, Diesel, LPG etc by govt. As Govt facing a big Problem on Fiscal Deficit, it may free the Prices soon. The rise in Global Crude indicates that Govt has no other choice.

After all if RBI is holding rates only for Inflation - does it get succeeded. The answer is NO.

It shows that Govt has no control over the issue.

Last Session in Parliament - India Saw what game was played between Govt and Opposition. No Useful Reforms or Bills Passed.

So lets wait till Monday what Happens...

>>> NIFTY <<<

>click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty facing it resistance near 5448, previous high. The chart shows a "V" shapped recovery - Rise is only on the basis of Expectations.

As said 5458 & 5490 is a Stiff Resistance. Support are 5420, 5390, 5358 and 5310. Below 5310 Nifty may try to fill the gap till 5260 as showed on chart. Tomorrow is a Weak end, Lets get ready to enjoy the thrilling day ahead. Cheers!!!

Nifty - Where is Nifty Going??? With Bull or to Hell ???

Dear All,

IIP Growth was 0.01% in July and manufacturing sector contracting 0.2% during the month, and 0.6% in the first four months of 2012-13 and so there will be a high level meeting tomorrow between central government, state government and industry representatives in order to revive the sector.

After Germany's court allowed the country to ratify the euro-area bailout fund with certain conditions, Asia and Europe Jumped followed by Our Market too.

>> Click the Chart to See on Full Screen <<

Above Nifty Daily Chart has broken the Long term trend line. Due to Rate Cut hope from RBI, European Developments and QE3 Hopes from US - Lift the Sentiment today.

Note that even though there are some Negative divergence a weak before - We stayed on the Long Side in many stocks - got hand some returns too.

At the same time We missed to make profit in Axis and ICICI Bank - where we exited with small profit - which fell as per my expectation too.

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen <

Though Nifty running Bullish due to flow of good news or on expectation of good news like CRR Cut etc., etc., I shall advice caution at this stage. Today we have closed all our Long positions and made NIL. Tommorrow 5448.6 which is a Previous High on 23rd Aug may remain as a Resistance.

Above Chart is an Leading Diagonal Triangle - which consist of a-b-c-d-e. Right now we are on the end of e wave formation - 5490 Nifty spot is going to be a trend decider.

>Click the chart to see on full Screen>

Above Hourly Chart - contains only after friday gap up. Since today closed above 5230 - Tomorrow I hope there can be some gap up and may faces resistance at 5459 & 5490. Eventually every where 5490 should be a Trend decider, as I hope Nifty may try to reverse from there. What I mean is a Bearish Reversal or to say it like a "FALL". I don't know how RBI is going to react on its Monetary Policy, What FED is going to announce on its QE3 Hopes, What S&P going to do about India's Rating Decision.

For be Chart says "BE CAUTIOIUS" -

Lets wait for the Interesting days ahead.

>> Performance <<

>Click the above sheet to see in full screen<

Since we are at nil Position - publishing this month so far Profit which stood at Rs.50,275.

Cheers!!!

Will Nifty Cross 5400??

Dear All,

As wrote Yesterday Nifty took support near 5333 and able to rally 5393.

As Shown on chart - Nifty ended sub wave 4 in a short node and started 5th sw. Now 5380 act as a support, lower channel of the raising wedge. 5413,5430 and 5460 act as a Targeted Resistance. A Fresh Buy signal on MACD suggest that the Rally is still ON and has a Potential to reach out till 5450 or 5490 as well.

>>> CROMPTON GREAVES <<< FOLLOW UP

Earlier we had a Buy call on Crompton Greaves at 106. cmp:111. As our Clients are still Holding it with a Profit of Rs.10,000/- (lot size 2000), Stock is taking too much time and consolidating also.

Now stock is facing a stiff Resistance at 112.35 - as marked with an arrow on the chart. Cross above may show 117 and 120 in few Hours.

I suggest even a Fresh entry above 112.35 for a given Target. Support at 110.30 & 109.50 as Stop Loss on Closing basis - All Cash Levels

Lets Wait for it. Cheers!!!

Are Bulls Tired ???

Dear All,

After Europe Based rally on Friday, its FOMC turn.

All eyes are on the Fed monetary policy meeting this week and due to the fact that last Friday's NFP report was rather disappointing, with only 96000 jobs added (considerably below forecasts of 130000). Consequently, expectations for a third round of QE to be introduced at the upcoming meeting have increased.

The final Outcome may be on Friday after 2 days of meeting.

>>> NIFTY <<<

> Click the Chart to see on full screen <

After a big gap up Opening on Friday - and followed by the consolidation today - it seems - Bulls are little bit tired.

Now as marked with arrow mark on chart 5350 plays an important support, if breaks then may test the following support - 5343 / 5327 & 5310.

If 5310 Breaks, then Nifty may try to fill the gap left at 5240 on Chart.

Lets Wait and See. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 08.09.2012

Dear All,

The ECB's announcement on Thursday that it is prepared to make unlimited bond purchases in order to lower borrowing costs for countries in crisis could mark a turning point in the euro crisis. German commentators, however, criticize the bank for becoming a hostage to politics.

Jens Weidmann, head of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, and a prominent member of the ECB Governing Council, has been vocally opposed to restarting bond purchases. He was the only member of the ECB's 22-member Governing Council to vote against the decision on Thursday.

Some of the elements of the new program appear to be designed to assuage German concerns. For example, the ECB will only assist countries that appeal for help to the euro bailout fund and submit to the required austerity conditions. Draghi also indicated that any bond purchases would be counteracted by measures to ensure that the money supply in the euro zone remains stable in order to avoid inflation, a top concern in Germany.

So it very Clear that German is Not happy with Dhragi's decision to Purchase Bonds. So there can be a Twist and Turns in coming days which may rock the world market once again.

Back Home fuel prices won't be increased immediately, sources say government has no other option but go for an across-the-board hike. Thus prices of petrol, diesel, LPG cylinder and kerosene will be increased.

Market experts still believe the government will consider hike in petrol or diesel prices soon, though Minister of State and Oil said the prices of diesel would not go up in near future.

However key UPA ally Trinamool Congress on Thursday said it will oppose any fuel price hike.


>>>NIFTY<<<

> Click the chart to see on Full Screen<

If you have read my Post for last one week, then you won't get surprised for the rally on friday. Finally the Trend line support worked out and Nifty rallied for more than 100 Points in a single day. As Per Chart attached above 5342 is an Important Resistance. But on Saturday Trade Nifty able to closed at 5358 should be noted. So next week if Nifty able to hold 5342 then 5448.6 shall be the Next Resistance which is the Recent High.


>>>BANK NIFTY<<<

Last two Week have wrote about the Bank Nifty - Cautioned our Readers that Bank Nifty may fall Badly.

As per attached chart - Now it seems Bank Nifty is on the Path of Recovery. Bank Nifty able to cross important Resistance 10130. Next Resistance shall be 10228, 10272 & 10325.

>WEEKLY CHARTS FOLLOW UP<

>>>AXIS BANK<<<

Chart given on 31st Aug, 2012

>Click the chart to see on full screen< Happened till 07th Sep, 2012

>Click the Chart to See on Full Screen< Warned about Axis Bank Break down on 01st Sep near 990 level. Stock melted down to 927 on 05th Sep. But We unfortunately missed to encash it as we covered our Shorts earlier with mild Profit. Refer our Performance Sheet below for the same. Now as per 2nd Chart on Axis - its time for a Relief Rally - hence forth it may rally up to 1020 to 1035 in next week.

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

Profit Booked & Un-booked remains at 41625 for the first Week of Sep,2012.
We had 3 more weeks remaining. Lets See.


>>> CHART OF THE WEEK <<< >>> AUROPHARMA <<<

>Click the chart to see in full screnn<

So whats running Auro Pharma for the Last 2 Days :-

Aurobindo Pharma gets US nod for anti-hypertension pills
Annual sales of these capsules stood at nearly $500 million for the twelve months ending March 2012

The company has received final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Amlodipine Besylate and Benazepril Hydrochloride capsules.

As per News and Chart - Auro Pharma had a convincing Break Out above 118 and We had a Buy call at 122. Refer Our Performance Sheet above. On Saturday it reached 131. Stock had a Resistance betwen 131 and 135, where it may consolidate and move up for a Potential Target of 150 in Short Span of time.

Draghi - All about Bonds

Dear All,

The ECB chief Mario Draghi tries to keep his Promise of Saving Euro Zone. At present he want to Help the struggling economies Spain & Italy - by bringing down the borrowing cost by Purchasing the Bonds.

I feel tomorrow world equity market depends on Draphi's plan and how it was accepted or agreed by Policy makers in over all. Spanish and Italian government bond yields have fallen significantly since Draghi said on August 2 that the ECB would buy bonds issued by Madrid and Rome.

Coming back to India, much awaited puzzle of Hike in Petrol, Diesel and LPG is nearing to an end, it seems Prices may be hiked. Due to chances of Rating Downgrade I feel this time the Govt may hike all these to tackle the Fiscal Deficit. Since festival seasons are nearing - rise in these items may impact on Festival sales too. Also inflation may also shoot up.

In the 12th 5 Year Plan, Panel has decided to lower annual average GDP from 9% to 8.2%

Finally Monsoon rains were 31 percent above average in the week to September 5, the weather office said on Thursday, the second straight week of heavier than normal rains, reducing the threat of a prolonged drought in the country. Finally a reason to smile.

>Click the chart to see in full screen<

Looking at Nifty Chart - took support on the Trend Line and raised, but failed to give a breakout above the channel shows that the threat is still on.

Not made any EW count - as changing it again and again is meaningless. Lets wait for the clear picture to emerge. Lets the week end give us a clear picture atleast. cheers!!!

Nifty - On Trend Line Support

Dear All,

Bank Stocks are the more Beaten up Stocks in todays Trade.

I hope every one remember what i have given on weekly Update for Bank Nifty and Axis Bank, Click the below Link so see the same

http://niftyforall.blogspot.in/2012/09/weekly-review-01-sep-2012.html


Nifty cant sustain above 5239 due to weakness in Bank Stocks and Metal Stocks. Losing scope for CRR cut, Fitch and Morgan downgraded Indian Banks - hit the street.

HSBC PMI index rose to 55.0 in August form 54.2 in July failed to cheer the market.

Trend line Support - if Breaks may be a real damage to Bulls, if Holds then a relief rally possible. Today Night ECB meet may decide the trend for tomorrow. Lets wait and see. Cheers

Nifty - Ready for Relief Rally ??

Dear All,

European stock markets dropped on Tuesday, after Moody’s Investors Service warned that the European Union could lose its Aaa debt rating, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to activate stimulus measures.

Back Home Nifty ended near 5274, Lets see whats Next..

As i was keeps on Saying Nifty should bounce for sw(2). Previously 5239 was the Support and even though it breached today managed to recover and close above it, due to irregular abc pattern. So lets wait for the Relief Rally for 5350+++

S&P Warns India's Downgrade Likely !!!

Dear All,

Takahira Ogawa, director of sovereign ratings at S&P, said high interst rates, deficit and inflation were impacting the country's growth, saying that he did not expect Q2 GDP growth to rebound. Subsidy Issue is really going to be a Problem for India due to forth coming Election in 2013.

Next Important Alert - As I advised Our Clients to cover Shorts today is due to..

Postpone GAAR by three years, says Shome panel

In a major boost to falling investments and investor sentiment in the India growth story, a committee set up by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has suggested deferment of the controversial GAAR for three years and abolition of capital gains tax on transfer of securities, a practice adopted by many Western countries.


The committee, headed by Parthasarathi Shome, has also recommended that GAAR be applicable only if the monetary threshold of tax benefit is Rs 3 crore or more.

Tax experts have welcomed the recommendation on capital gains tax on foreign institutional investors and non-resident Indians, saying it will ultimately help in growth of Indian economy, which has slowed down in the last few quarters because investments have been held back due to India’s rigid tax laws.

Lets wait for the announcement sooner in this week itself.


Government unlikely to cancel all coal blocks allocation

Union parliamentary affairs minister Pawan Bansal on Sunday categorically denied that the government would cancel allocation of coal blocks in the wake of the Coalgate scam.

As the Opposition kept on demanding Cancellation of All coal Blocks and Resignation of Manmohan singh, Coal ministry sources says - its not an Easy task to cancel all coal Blocks

>>> NIFTY <<<

>Click the chart to see in full screen <

As long as bottom of wave (1) 5239 is on hold - Chances for Nifty to bounce from here is very high. As shown on chart 5290 & 5320 remains as a Targeted Resistance.

>>CROMPTON GREAVES<<

>Click the chart to see in full screen <

Crompton Greaves ended its 1-5 wave downside shows that its ready for an upmove. 105.50 is a support for now - as shown on chart - looks like a double bottom unless it breaks in a day or two. If this support holds then an upmove upto 117 is not far away from here. Lets see!!!

Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 01-Sep-2012

Dear All,

On 28th Aug - Have given the Bank Nifty Chart and said the Break down of a Symmetrical Triangle - as give below..

>> BANK NIFTY <<

>Click chart to see in full screen <

As per Bank Nifty shown 9948 on Friday - Since no major changes on chart - not posting any updated chart.


Apart from Technical lets see some fundamental also.


Latest Report from CRISIL says that
Loan restructuring by banks could soar to Rs 3.25 lakh crore this fiscal against the earlier estimate of Rs 2 lakh crore. Indicates that 2012 is going to be challenging for banking Sector as a whole.


Most of the Public Sector Bank reported an Increase in NPA's and Provisions hurting their Profitability Badly.


Slowing economic growth and high interest rates have crimped the ability of many borrowers to repay their debts, causing bad loans to pile up at banks.


Many expected New FM PC may or will Cut the CRR when he took Charge of the Ministry, Now there is no Indication about it, Falling GDP and Inflation holding up on higher side indicates the Risk of Credit Crunch.


Fiscal deficit during April-July reached 51 per cent of the budgetary estimate of Rs 5.13 lakh crore, raising fears of the government breaching its fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP for the current year.


The renewed concerns will discourage the Reserve Bank of India from easing monetary policy and give the rating agencies reason to carry out their threat of downgrading India's sovereign rating to junk grade.


This shows the slowing growth is taking its toll on revenues while government was unable to rein in its expenditure.


All these above suggest that Economy and Banking Sector in Particular in Deep trouble.

>>>NIFTY<<<

>Click the chart to see in full screen <

Nifty completed sub wave(1) down and should bounce back for a corrective upmove. As given on chart - Pipe Bottom Pattern - On Candle Stick shows that an Interim downside in finished and a Bounce back for sw(2) is ON. Possible upmove shall be 5330 to 5350.

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

Attached is the Peformance for the Month End of August 2012. We did a profit of Rs.1,30,000. All levels mentioned here are Cash levels and advised to execute trade on Futures. Stop Loss on Closing basis and Some Exit may have advised earlier.

Cash required is atleast 2 lakhs - Maximum of 2-3 Position shall be carried out at a time.

Red Colored are Stop Loss hit and Loss is deducted from the total Profit.

WEED END STOCK :-

AXIS BANK :-

> Click the chart to see on Full Screen <

Axis Bank - after consolidating for more than 4 months - finally Axis Bank has given a Break down. 984 is a Support, break below may test 940 & 898.

Head & Shoulder - Nifty ???

Dear All,

As Said Yesterday Nifty Bounced today - till 5340 - Lets see What I said..

Happened today :-

Cheers!!!