Is this a Final Run Up!!!

Dear All,

>>> Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Should break the levels 6790, 6770, 6760, 6747 and 6730 to confirm the fall. Else may bounce again for the last leg (5th wave) of upmove as shown on chart.

Upmove may face resistance @ 6830 and 6865 on the upper side. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty resisted @ 61.8% fib lvl. Need confirmation on either side to decide. Be patience.

6830 - Above Upmove may Extend !!!

Dear All,

>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty started moving up again inside the channel. Broken previous high 6774 shows that the 5th wave is still ON. Tomorrow if able to break above 6830 as shown on chart, then upmove to continue again.

So traders who have taken short should maitain Stop loss @ 6830.

Many asking me about the Nifty movement comparing with election results. I have no idea about the probability, as I am a TA, and I do follow levels. After getting support @ 6650 on Monday, Nifty made a aggressive move today shows that the 5th wave is alive.

Though its a last leg of upmove, its important to follow Stop Loss and we need to protect our capital. Lets See.

>>> SBIN - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

I have mentioned on my weekly review that SBI has formed a channel on daily chart and 1-5 upmove seems like ending on the hourly chart also.

>>> Happened <<<

>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Instead SBI took support at the channel bottom and started moving up. Though we made a part booking earlier, today the stop loss met at 1962 and we loss nearly 5875.

>>> IDBI <<<

>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

IDBI broken the channel with good volume. We are long since 65 and made some part booking for Rs.8000. Now if stays above the channel then expect some good upmove. Lets See.

6650 Support Taken

Dear All,

>>>click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6650 supported nifty, but still out of the channel. Lets see.

>>> Tata Chemicals <<<

>>>click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Part Profit booked @ 280 - Rs.10,000. Break below the neck line may trigger more fall.

>>> CIPLa <<<

>>>click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Cipla sell initiated @ 400, made a low of 392. More fall likely. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 07.04.2014

Dear All,

Modi-powered NDA may get 234-246 seats, UPA 111-123

A survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) on Friday claimed that NDA minus Telugu Desam Party will win 246 seats.

The pollsters seem to have absolute clarity about the leadership too. They say Modi has an approval rating of 34% while just 15% have polled for Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi.

The BJP is likely to cross 200 seats mark for the first time in its history by bagging 206-218 Lok Sabha seats on its own. The lowest count for the Congress was 114 seats in 1999 and the highest for the BJP is 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

According to election tracker the BJP is making huge gains in the Hindi belt states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jharkhand and its Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. The BJP is ahead of the AAP in Delhi which has 7 Lok Sabha seats.

It is in a close fight with the Congress in Karnataka and slightly ahead in Maharashtra. The BJP is not making any gains in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and other Northeastern states.

It may get a few seats in Telangana, which will be India's 29th state from June 2, 2014.

How to form a government?

The BJP-led NDA may fall short of 30-40 seats for a simple majority figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats. However, it can take the help of YSR Congress Party, TRS, DMK or AIADMK, BSP and TDP to reach the halfway mark. The TMC and BJD have made it clear that they will not back the NDA. But, they can change their mind once the results are out.

Don't know how markets going to react next week. Any way lets go to Technical's - Lets See what Chart says to us...!!!

>>> Nifty - Weekly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote that the trend line on weekly chart may act as a resistance. See what happened

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A Red Doji on the trend line is a Caution Note from bear. So lets See What Daily chart say to us.

>>> Nifty - Daily - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Trend line as resistance - See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So finally the 5 wave upmove has ended and its time to correct. If 6600 breaks then 6420 may be the next level. Lets See.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes it took nearly 60 days to reach from 5933 to 6774 and now broken the base support line. Caution advised.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote - Trend line as resistance - See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is a weekly chart - Resisted @ 78.6% fib level or Trend line. Cross above may test 13600 on the upper side. Else fall to resume with heavy selling.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly View <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

12300 if holds then upmove should resume. Else fall to continue.

>>> SBIN - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above give is a daily chart - I have assumed the entire upmove as a-b-c and the channel, if not able to cross may trigger sell off. More details on Hourly chart given below.

>>> SBIN - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

SBIN on the last leg of upmove. If breaks the base channel - fall must start - Else may run up for another leg on the upper side which may be short lived. So over all caution advised on this stock.

>>> ACC - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Acc - I assumed as completed its A-B-C upmove. Wave C has retraced almost 161.8% of wave A. So if unable to cross the pitchfork then should fall. See more details on Hourly chart also.

>>> ACC - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the trend line after 1-5 upmove completed for Wave C. Firmly closed below the trend line indicates caution also. Lets See.

>>> Tata Chemicals - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again one more stock - Tata Chemical completed its A-B-C and started falling. Now there is a H&S like pattern appears - which we have already published last friday, if breaks then more to fall. One more Caution. Cheers!!!

Again Resisted @ 6750-6760.

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

One more failure to hold above 6750-6760. RSI broken the triangle, price must confirm the down trend if breaks below the channel support.

>>> India Cement - As Updated last weekly review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on last weekly review about India Cement break out. See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes We have booked almost 36000 profit.

>>> Tata Chemicals <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If breaks the channel - then free fall not ruled out.

6750 Crossed. Watch 6760 for Next Level

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Continuous 3 Red Colored Hanging Man - Indicates Caution. RSI also not moving along with Price should be watched carefully.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Though 5750 crossed today - Price holding below upper trend line should be watched.

If price able to cross above 5760 may see next resistance till 6775-6788 and 6862. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yesterday wrote - Break down on Bank Nifty - Today we saw the Pull over - Probably a rise before next fall. Lets See.

>>> ACC <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

ACC on the edge of break down - once it breaks then fall should shall be continuous and deep. Lets See.

6750 to decide

Dear All,

RBI kept all key rates unchanged in the monetary policy review, while repo rate was kept unchanged at 8%, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and reverse repo rate were maintained at status quo of 4% and 7% respectively.

Despite some positive movement in more recent data, industrial activity continues to be a drag on the economy, with retrenchment in both consumption and investment demand reflected in the contraction of output of consumer durables as well as capital goods.

Retail inflation measured by CPI moderated for the third month in succession in February 2014, driven lower by the sharp disinflation in food prices, although prices of fruits, milk and products have started to firm up.

RBI expects the CAD to be about 2.0 per cent of GDP. "Most recently, however, export growth has slowed, partly because of slowdown in demand in partner countries as well as a softening of prices of exports of petroleum products and gems and jewellery.

There will also be a downward statistical pull on CPI inflation exerted by base effects of high inflation during June-November 2013.

RBI has projected real GDP growth to pick up from a little below 5 per cent in 2013-14 to a range of 5 to 6 per cent in 2014-15 albeit with downside risks to the central estimate of 5.5 per cent.


>>> Nifty <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6750 - Channel resistance, if able to cross may help bulls to gain strength once again.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty broken the trend line. Lets Wait and See. Cheers!!!

Where is the End ????

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

No comments....!!! as chart speaks every thing. Lets wait.

Weekly Review - 31.03.2014

Dear All,

Well Market Rallied so Far On Expectations of a Narendra Modi-led Government may win majority has fuelled a bull run in the equity market and surge in the rupee against the US dollar. Now many analyst feel that the next move is not the poll outcome but global cues that will drive the equity market in India.

Markets could rise by up to 10 per cent from its current 6,600-odd level if a BJP-led alliance forms the government and could fall equally precipitously if that does not happen.

At the same time the local currency touched a seven-month high of 60.60 against the dollar earlier this month after data showed a sharp drop in the CAD for the third quarter of FY14 ($4.2 billion, or 0.9 per cent of GDP). A stable rupee has helped improve India's external profile and consequently exports, especially in IT, pharmaceutical, chemicals and textiles.

A majority of opinion polls have shown the possibility of a stable government at the Centre, raising the prospect of market-friendly reforms from the new government. The latter will have to work in close co-ordination with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to gradually steer India's economy to a high growth path. Decisive policy measures by the new government can go a long way in giving RBI the much-needed room to cut interest rates and maintain price stability as inflation is showing signs of cooling. Until such time, the RBI is unlikely to make any major alteration to its current monetary stance, whereby it is clearly focusing on taming inflation.

At the same time Finance Minister P Chidambaram rejected media analysis that the “hope” of a stable Government after elections is bringing in investments and driving up the capital market and the value of Rupee. He maintained it is not “hope” but the “fact” of a stable Government provided by UPA and the numerous measures taken in the last 18 months that have provided stability and strength to the Indian economy.

>>> Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break out from the channel, But the Trend line resistance should be watched before next move.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Same as said on weekly chart, Trend line must be watched carefully. As per EW wave 3 is ON. Though we need to check the hourly chart EW count for next move, as trend line gives us warning.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty hourly suggest that the Price in the last leg of 1-5 upmove. Hence the 5th leg faces resistance @ 6700 or 6716. So a possible correction for Wave 2 may set in any time. Since highly over bot zone may trigger some correction shall be used for accumulation also. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Daily Bank Nifty Chart faces resistance from the Trend line.

>>> Indian Cement <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A Sudden move on India Cement nearly 10% was a surprise. Chart shows a good Break out. Lot of news flow from IPL front should be watched. If all negative news are priced in, hope for a good upmove.

>>> Havells <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Havells Bull run starts from 2009 onwards, seems like ended its 5th wave now. 924 and 940 very crucial level. If unable to cross may confirm the end of bull run.

>>> Performance <<<

>>> click the image to see on full screen <<<

6656 Resistance !!!

Dear All,

>>> Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So it seems like we are nearing to end the rally. 6656 crossed today and failed to hold. Next Resistance 6678 and 6700. A small wedge - if breaks then first sign of weakness. Lets See.

>>> SBIN <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

SBI - Star of the day - Rallied nearly 5%. So whats next ???. If unable to cross the upper channel - then may fall. Lets see!!!