Weekly Review - 30.09.2012

Dear All,

As Expected Fiscal Deficit Alarm was sounded by Kelkar Panel Recommendations on Friday. The Report has warned the Government that fiscal deficit would reach 6.1 per cent of GDP against the Budget estimates of 5.1 per cent. It said the Budget had overestimated tax receipts by Rs 60,000 crore and underestimated subsidies by Rs 70,000 crore.

Following are some "Unbelievable Recommendations by the Committee.

> The panel wanted the government to increase the prices of food items sold through ration shops, every time the minimum support price is revised. Besides, it recommended removing the system of selling the sweetener through the ration shops.

> The Panel suggested immediately increasing the diesel prices by Rs four a litre, kerosene by Rs 2 a litre and LPG by Rs 50 per cylinder. These steps, would reduce under-recoveries of oil marketing companies by Rs 20,000 crore, it said. However, the government’s recent steps would themselves reduce underrecoveries by Rs 20,300 crore, according to estimates of analysts.

> The committee further recommended regular raising of diesel prices until it becomes completely deregulated, and keeping subsidy at affordable level on LPG and kerosene.

> The Kelkar panel fovoured a proposal to increase the MRP of Urea by 10 per cent during the first year with any further increase being limited to any increase in the pooled gas price and in fixed

>The report comes after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh unveiled a series of big-ticket reforms on Sept. 14 seen as key to reviving sluggish economic growth. It provided a sobering reminder of the challenges still facing the government.

> Singh, in a rare televised address last Friday, warned his countrymen that "money does not grow on trees" on the same day that his biggest ally quit the government in protest against the reforms, which included opening up the country's retail sector to foreign supermarkets.

>Failing to tackle the deficit means India could potentially face a worse situation than the balance-of-payments crisis in 1991, when the country was bailed out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the report said.

Mean while The government on Friday said the rupee could touch the 50-mark to a dollar in the next four months on the back of strong inflow of foreign currency.

Added more that appreciation of rupee would help cutting down the subsidy bill and cool down inflation, which stood at 7.55 per cent in August.

>>>NIFTY - Weekly Chart<<<

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen<
Nifty Weekly Chart - Seems to be Possible Double Top near 5735-40 level.

>>Nifty - Daily Chart<<

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen<
Nifty Daily Chart - Unable to cross the channel suggest end of sub wave 3 or c.

>>>IFCI<<<

On Sep,26th IFCI started its fall on the Opening bell when Sebi has approved a proposed hike of the government's stake in IFCI Ltd to 55.57 per cent to make it a state-run company, without triggering an open offer for shares of public investors.

Unluckily I had a Call on IFCI to sell on 25th Sep,2012 below 31.30 (spot) - did not triggered and fell down sharply on the next day opening itself.

Meanwhile, Cabinet last month approved a proposal for conversion of debentures worth Rs 923 crore into shares of IFCI, following which the government’s stake in the financial institution would rise to 55.57 per cent, from a meagre 0.0000011 per cent currently.

So what's Wrong in SEBI's Order:-

IFCI investors are of the view that the conversion of debentures should be made at a price that is determined according to Sebi-mandated formula for preferential issues. This would ensure a fair deal for minority investors in the company. If debentures are converted at par, it erodes the value of small investors substantially

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen<

IFCI - Daily Chart shows a Head and Shoulder - I have earlier suggested last month in my Weekly Review that - Head Shoulder for a Target of 23-24. After hitting the Target, Price bounced back to touch the neck line as shown on chart. Now its time to fall once again.

>>>IGL - Indraprastha Gas Ltd <<<

"Natural gas prices must be determined by market forces," the 12th Five Year (2012-17) Plan document states.

After a tuff fight between PNGRB in SC and Delhi HC - its seems the war may end sooner, and allow IGL to fix its rates on own. As RIL also seeking an increase in Gas Price from Govt of India, it shows IGL may raise its price sooner with out any trouble may favour IGL in coming days to increase its revenue substantially.

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen<

IGL - Hourly Chart shows the Trend Line Break Out with Volume. Upmove Should continue as per Chart.

>>>INFY<<<

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen<
Whats the Latest News on Infy :- The Compnay considering giving wage hike to its employees in October this year. The extent of the hike could be in the range of 5-6%, according to sources in the company.

The decision on wage hike would be taken after the closure of the book next month. Infosys will announce its second quarter results for FY13 on 12 October.

In April this year, the company had decided to defer the annual wage hike citing uncertain business environment and slow growth. The company however had said that it would revisit the decision when the situation improves.

Which means the Cost for the company may increase substantially - during the time of poor business environment and may affect its revenue too.

Apart from News lets see what else left in Infy in coming days.

The rupee, Asia’s worst performing currency in the past six months, rose (appreciated) after the government allowed overseas retailers to invest in Asia’s third-largest economy and said foreign airlines can own minority stakes in local carriers. A stronger local currency hurts exporters because it reduces the value of repatriated earnings, Specifically IT Industry and Infosys in Particular.

Even though falling Western Nations and trouble in most of the Euro countries - sp far Infosys Profit not Hurt due to week Indian Rupee. The IT companies have gained a lot from the depreciation of the rupee recently.

But things have changed after latest Reforms form Govt. and Strength in Indian Rupee.

Every 1 percent movement in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar has an impact of about 50 basis points on Infosys’s operating margin, the company said in its annual report.

So lets see how Technically Infosys is going to be.

After a fall upto 2101 on 27th July,2012, INFY retraced till 61.8% of its previous high 2994 which I feel its an end of sub wave 2. The retrace was a-b-c as shown on above chart and a possible fall for sub wave 3 has already started. Break below 2520 may bring price upto 2440 which was my first Target.

But the fall may go deeper enough as I feel the Result won't cheers the Market and the guidance going to be too poor due to appreciating Indian Rupee.

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

Following is the Performance for the month end of September 28, 2012.

Wish You all a Very Happy Weekend. Cheers

Nifty Support at 5623

Dear All

>>>NIFTY<<<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Nifty forming a Flag like pattern and stuck in between those channel, today's attempt to break above the channel failed and fell upto 5640. Now if breaks 5640, next logical support at 50% fibonacci ratio along with the channel support as shown on chart.

Break below 5623 may favour bears with good sell off.

>>>TATA MOTORS<<<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

I think No explanation needed for the above Tata Motors Chart. Inverse H&S Break Out and falling to touch the Neck Line. But there is also another story in Eod which we have discussed along with chart last weekly review - as we found there is a Big Head and Shoulder.

So finally if 250 gives support - Possible bounce back, else may fall Heavily as per Eod Charts H&S Pattern.

Interesting days ahead. Lets wait and See. Cheers!!!

Nifty - Still Consolidation

Dear All,

>>>NIFTY<<<

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

Nifty not giving up even after breaking out of channel, raises concern about bears strength. 5640 Support and 5665, 5690 and 5720 Resistance should decide the trend in coming days.

>>>HINDALCO<<<

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

Earlier Last week we had a Call on Hindalco Short - Which did not perform well. Even after breaking the main channel as shown on chart - not able to fall. So we covered our Short on Cost.

>>>TATA STEEL<<<

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

Tata Steel we had a Short Earlier - Covered with good Profit. Right now Tata Steel 392 which was its Previous Low and 389 act as a good support as shown on chart. Break below these levels may invite good sell off.

Lets get ready for the Interesting Expiry Day tomorrow. Cheers!!!

Nifty - Consolidation

Dear All,

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty continue to consolidate. 5665 & 5650 remains as a near term support. 5690 & 5720 acting as an Resistance level.

Cheers!!!

Nifty - Here comes S&P Again !!!

Dear All,

Despite of Bold Action from Govt. on Reforms front, S&P Lowered India's GDP forecast to 5.5%. S&P have already cut India’s sovereign rating of `’BBB-’ to negative from stable in April. Even Moody’s was unimpressed by the reforms and said last week that the measures were too small to affect the country’s sovereign rating.

CRISIL too had slashed its forecast for the country’s GDP growth to 5.5% from 6.5% for this fiscal. HSBC has also cut growth forecast for fiscal 2012-2013.

India’s Planning panel also lowered annual average economic growth rate to 8.2% in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) from the earlier 9% due to lower economic growth and lack of appropriate policy measures.

Mean While PMEA Council Chairman C Rangarajan said today that India's growth rate is expected to pick up in the second half of this fiscal and reach 6.7% for entire 2012-13

He said the agriculture performance this year would also be better than what was expected a few months ago. "Therefore, taking all these factors into account, I expect there will be a growth rate of 6.7% in current (financial) year.

Lets wait and See how S&P going to react on its Rating Front - as Govt of India has taken a very delayed action on Reforms front like FDI / Reducing Subsidy Bills by contracting fiscal Deficit etc., etc., blaw blaw blaw..

>>> NIFTY <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

A small symmetrical triangle break down - confirmed that Nifty shall fall upto 5600 & 5560. Negative Divergence on Hourly chart also confirmed the fall. 5540 which is a second gap may get filled possibly.

>>> HINDALCO <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Hindalco - Was earlier in our List - Shorted and Earned also. Please refer the Performance for this month. Today also went Short -

Chart shows Negative Divergence - Unlike earlier - the counts were little bit changed and looking for a Target of 113.8 & 109 as marked on Chart.

>>> HDIL <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

HDIL - another case of Negative Divergence or Fake Price Movement - As shown on Chart - today have broken a small channel and tomorrow if trades below 88-89 then should fall more.

Lets See!!! Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 22.09.12

Dear All,


GET SET GO ..... Said Govt.

Didi Gone, FDI amended, Cong govt Stable, Nifty & Sensex at a New High...What made these all, What else left to do ?

Nifty Jumped around 450 Points, Rupee at its 4 months High.


1) Govt Cut withholding tax on overseas borrowing by local companies to 5% from 20%. Now Cheaper Funds will flow into Local companies.

2) Fin Ministry also approved Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to encourage small investors to enter the stock market. Retail investors earning less than Rs 10 lakh ($18,400) annually, would be eligible for a 50% tax deduction on investments up to Rs 50,000. The programme will include mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

3) Infrastructure and construction companies, burdened with huge debt, will benefit from the government’s tax measure.

4) Govt. would relax the minimum requirements for Indian carriers to fly overseas.

Inflation, Monetary Policy and External Factors like Euro Crises and Chinese issue remain the same, yet to be assessed going forward.

Weekly Nifty Chart :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Nifty Weekly Chart shows that Price crossed and closed above 61.8% retrace looks bullish. May cross over to 5950 which is 78.6% retrace next.

As per EW theory - On going Wave is C. 5870 is the Logical target for Wave C.


Daily Nifty Chart :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Daily Chart - Both Channels topping out - as 1-5 wave is ending - as its time for correction before a Next Upmove. Possibly a good round of selling next week possible.
May try to fill the first Gap at 5450.

Weekly Bank Nifty :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Bank Nifty Weekly Chart closed above 61.8%. But the Previous High 11433 may act as a Resistance this week.

Daily Bank Nifty :-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Daily Chart of Bank Nifty - Have marked here as A-B-C. On going C was should cross 11433 as shown on Weekly Chart and should touch 11620 which is 78.6% retrace of wave A.

>Performance<

Following Excel Sheet is our Sep month Performance So far :-

Performance was down due to Tata Motor which had a gap up Opening a day after FDI bill Passed. Even though advised only small or risky traders to exit / Other to Average. So have deducted Tata Motor as Loss here.

Those who wish to Participate our Calls should call me on 9677924975 or krish_venkatesh@yahoo.com

Cheers!!!

Will Nifty Hold 5527 ???

Dear All,

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen<

Nifty support @ 5527. If breaks then can fall up to 5448.

Political Chaos Vs Nifty

Dear All,

Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee on Wednesday vehemently denied any attempt at communication from the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).

"You may control some channels but you cannot control us. We are transparent. People know our credentials," she added. "I was never informed about FDI decisions," Banerjee reiterated.

"I will stick to my position, come what may...the (TMC) ministers will tender their resignations," she told reporters, a day after she announced withdrawal of support and pull out of ministers, if the government does not go back on its decisions.

Trinamool Congress, the second biggest constituent of the UPA, on Tuesday dealt a major blow to the Manmohan Singh government when it decided to withdraw support on the issue of FDI in retail, diesel price hike, cap on subsidised LPG cylinders and corruption.

She had said that party ministers in the UPA government would meet the prime minister in Delhi and submit their resignations at 3:00 pm on Friday.


>>> NIFTY <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Nifty forming a Pennant formation - a Break below the channel may target 5500 or 5450. Upper side break out may lead to 5660 & 5706.

>>> TATA MOTORS <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Tata Motors - forming a Head & Shoulder - Support at 272, breaks below may lead a fall up to 263 & 257.

>>> HINDALCO <<<

>Click the chart to see it on full screen<

Hindalco - Complted a-b-c - retracement and broken the support of 114.50. Should fill the gap for a possible low upto 109 & 103

Bull Came with FDI Policy!!!

Dear All,

Sudden announcement of FDI Policy on Friday evening, Made every One surprise. It seems that Every thing was Planned Previously.

RBI also cut CRR by 25 BPS. Now the Question is why RBI refused to Cut for last 4 Session - as they have indicated Inflation as an Important Point of concern. As Diesel Price Hike may Impact 100 BPS on Inflation - is RBI cutting rate at right time.

Even though after Diesel Hike - Many voices are raised that fiscal Deficit shall be More than 1.25 Lak Crore Vs 85K crore Previously.

Nifty as Expected made a Gap Up Opening - made a come back in the afternoon session after RBI cut the Rates.

Now will Nifty cool at least a Bit form here ??

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Nifty Channel shows it faces Resistance near 5650.

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Hourly chart says sw(iii) has been completed near 5650 may correct for sw(iv) which may be near 5500 or 5450 as it may fill the gap left on chart.

Lets see. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 15.09.2012

Dear All,

>> After a Month long waiting Cong. Govt got the courage to Open the doors for FDI in Multi Branch Retail and Civil Aviation Industries. This will pave the way for the much-awaited entry of foreign retail giants such as Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour into the $450 billion retail market, although their footprint will be limited to million-plus cities in states which have agreed to back the measure.

>> The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs also approved disinvestment in public sector units - Oil India (10%), NALCO (12.5%), Hindustan Copper (9.59%), Neyveli Lignite Corporation (5%). This move is likely to fetch Rs 15,000 crore for the government.

The decisions on Friday, along with a go-ahead for disinvestment in four PSUs to mop up Rs 14,000 crore, come within a day of the ruling coalition's decision to raise diesel price by a stiff Rs 5 a litre and cap subsidized cooking gas cylinders to six a year for every household.

>> Foreign carriers were not allowed so far to directly invest in Indian carriers for security reasons, although 49 percent FDI by non-airline players was allowed.

According to civil aviation ministry sources, the directives for the implementation of the policy will be issued within a month.

Cong Govt, Says, Allowing FDI in retail will benefit farmers and the common man the most.

UPA constituent Trinamool Congress set a 72-hour deadline for the government for the roll back of the decision.

TMC said the decision is harmful for the people of the country. “It will allow multi-brand firms to dictate their own terms.”

BJP Said FDI in retail was made under the pressure of "foreign forces".

SP Said "FDI in retail would affect Indian market and agriculture. The move would hit Indian economy as retailers and farmers would be ruined by it,"

BSP also criticised the move by saying, “It will provide to be a fatal for farmers and will make India a slave of multi-national companies.”

CPI(M) Said “The UPA government "cannot give any job but is snatching jobs. It is destroying the livelihood of people through so-called reform measures aimed at pleasing corporates."

So Lets analyse - Is there any Special Features or good things that can help our economy ????

Yes, or May be..

The minimum FDI limit has been set at $100 million. Half of any investment has to be made in infrastructure like cold-storage chains and warehouses. This is designed to help the agricultural sector and India has a severe shortage of these.

Another point is Least 30 per cent of the goods to be sold will have to sourced from local producers, means local producers are going to have a good price for their Products from now onwards.

But the above rules has also been relaxed a bit by the govt that if companies don't want to procure 30 per cent locally, they will have to set up a manufacturing unit. Hence forth many FDI's wants this rule to be relaxed. There is split within the government over this.

The government argues that FDI in multi-brand will give consumers the best deals possible on goods and also get it much-needed money.

Also The government will have the first right to procurement of agriculture products. Fresh agricultural products, including fruits, vegetables, flowers, grains, pulses, fresh poultry, fishery and meal products may be unbranded.

So Market getting ready to cheer on Monday also.

Coming back to Nifty - I was Pointing out that Nifty shows many negative divergence and advised caution. Instead after Friday's move from US QE3 - Nifty had a superb rally of nearly 150+ Points. Many asking or questioning that Is Nifty turned Bullish or Worst is Over????

I dont have any short call on Nifty. Due to caution - I have advised my clients to clear all Positions on the day of German Verdict and made NIL positions. We had some stock specific short calls - which is still open with out meeting Stop loss on friday's rally.

Next my level 5490 get breached and I agree that the Patterns and counts changed, even though I don't feel we may get a Buying opportunity as there is going to be one more gap up.

So whats else we have it more in Nifty lets see..

<< Nifty - Weekly Chart >>

>Click the Chart to see on full screen>

Weekly Chart - 5630 which is our recent high should be watched closely. 5575 & 5673 should be the Weekly Resistance levels.


>Nifty - Hourly Chart<

>Click the chart to see in full screen<

As said on Weekly Chart - 5575 & 5673 shall be the 61.8% & 78.6% retrace of sw(a).

>> Weekly Chart - Ranbaxy <<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Many queries about Ranbaxy - as many had this popular stock in their portfolio. I feel Ranbaxy is on A-B-C pattern - As B wave got over on 04th Sep, 2012 at 578.4. So Now stock may move down for Wave C. So I advice caution for those who where Long, atleast have your Stop Loss, as stock is ready for a deep correction.

Happy Weekend to All. Cheers!!!

Can Friday Hold 5400 - Nifty

Dear All,

There are some queries after Yesterday's Post. Why did I turn Bearish when the News are Positive and Optimistic from Global and Domestic.

First Euro Issue is getting resolved.

After German Verdict - the worries are eased. But the Light is far away - tunnel is longer enough to reach it. Actually Euro faces many crisis which need many solutions for solving it. Reacting for any Positive Like news is very common in Stock Market. Only time has the answer.

Secondly RBI is ready to cut Rates.????

Post IIP Data which has worry on India Inc Increased further as fourteen of the 22 industry groups that make up the manufacturing index - the biggest constituent of the IIP - reported a fall, pushing it into its second straight month of decline.

"There is urgent need for policy action from the government to address the deterioration in fiscal deficit and persistent pullback in private investment. In the event of continued inaction from the government, we see high risk of a potential 'deeper macro stress' scenario," said Morgan Stanley economists in a note.

So RBI to meet on monday to decide the monetary policy, even though many Banks are crying for a rate cut, economist still believe that RBI may hold the rates for the fifth time also.

Actually Nifty is moving up on expectation that RBI may cut Rates. Any disappointment may lead to a Big Fall this time, as the Data's are continuously Negative, Fall in corporate results and Poor strength of the Banks.

So How far the Issue is Bad ???? Yes its Poorer than what we think. Read below..

1) HSBC has cut India's growth to 5.2% from its Previous forecast of 6.2%. It also stated that RBI's Policy as one of the reason for slow down in growth.

2) Bank of America Merrill Lynch says loan growth in India is likely to hit 14-year low, which is bad news for the economy. In spite of RBI refused to cut rates, Banks have reduced the Interest rates - which may impact their Balance sheet in FY13-14. PSU Bank may be worst affected.

3) On going Inflation is much above RBI's predication of 5%. It may even get increase due to Rise in Petrol, Diesel, LPG etc by govt. As Govt facing a big Problem on Fiscal Deficit, it may free the Prices soon. The rise in Global Crude indicates that Govt has no other choice.

After all if RBI is holding rates only for Inflation - does it get succeeded. The answer is NO.

It shows that Govt has no control over the issue.

Last Session in Parliament - India Saw what game was played between Govt and Opposition. No Useful Reforms or Bills Passed.

So lets wait till Monday what Happens...

>>> NIFTY <<<

>click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty facing it resistance near 5448, previous high. The chart shows a "V" shapped recovery - Rise is only on the basis of Expectations.

As said 5458 & 5490 is a Stiff Resistance. Support are 5420, 5390, 5358 and 5310. Below 5310 Nifty may try to fill the gap till 5260 as showed on chart. Tomorrow is a Weak end, Lets get ready to enjoy the thrilling day ahead. Cheers!!!

Nifty - Where is Nifty Going??? With Bull or to Hell ???

Dear All,

IIP Growth was 0.01% in July and manufacturing sector contracting 0.2% during the month, and 0.6% in the first four months of 2012-13 and so there will be a high level meeting tomorrow between central government, state government and industry representatives in order to revive the sector.

After Germany's court allowed the country to ratify the euro-area bailout fund with certain conditions, Asia and Europe Jumped followed by Our Market too.

>> Click the Chart to See on Full Screen <<

Above Nifty Daily Chart has broken the Long term trend line. Due to Rate Cut hope from RBI, European Developments and QE3 Hopes from US - Lift the Sentiment today.

Note that even though there are some Negative divergence a weak before - We stayed on the Long Side in many stocks - got hand some returns too.

At the same time We missed to make profit in Axis and ICICI Bank - where we exited with small profit - which fell as per my expectation too.

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen <

Though Nifty running Bullish due to flow of good news or on expectation of good news like CRR Cut etc., etc., I shall advice caution at this stage. Today we have closed all our Long positions and made NIL. Tommorrow 5448.6 which is a Previous High on 23rd Aug may remain as a Resistance.

Above Chart is an Leading Diagonal Triangle - which consist of a-b-c-d-e. Right now we are on the end of e wave formation - 5490 Nifty spot is going to be a trend decider.

>Click the chart to see on full Screen>

Above Hourly Chart - contains only after friday gap up. Since today closed above 5230 - Tomorrow I hope there can be some gap up and may faces resistance at 5459 & 5490. Eventually every where 5490 should be a Trend decider, as I hope Nifty may try to reverse from there. What I mean is a Bearish Reversal or to say it like a "FALL". I don't know how RBI is going to react on its Monetary Policy, What FED is going to announce on its QE3 Hopes, What S&P going to do about India's Rating Decision.

For be Chart says "BE CAUTIOIUS" -

Lets wait for the Interesting days ahead.

>> Performance <<

>Click the above sheet to see in full screen<

Since we are at nil Position - publishing this month so far Profit which stood at Rs.50,275.

Cheers!!!

Will Nifty Cross 5400??

Dear All,

As wrote Yesterday Nifty took support near 5333 and able to rally 5393.

As Shown on chart - Nifty ended sub wave 4 in a short node and started 5th sw. Now 5380 act as a support, lower channel of the raising wedge. 5413,5430 and 5460 act as a Targeted Resistance. A Fresh Buy signal on MACD suggest that the Rally is still ON and has a Potential to reach out till 5450 or 5490 as well.

>>> CROMPTON GREAVES <<< FOLLOW UP

Earlier we had a Buy call on Crompton Greaves at 106. cmp:111. As our Clients are still Holding it with a Profit of Rs.10,000/- (lot size 2000), Stock is taking too much time and consolidating also.

Now stock is facing a stiff Resistance at 112.35 - as marked with an arrow on the chart. Cross above may show 117 and 120 in few Hours.

I suggest even a Fresh entry above 112.35 for a given Target. Support at 110.30 & 109.50 as Stop Loss on Closing basis - All Cash Levels

Lets Wait for it. Cheers!!!

Are Bulls Tired ???

Dear All,

After Europe Based rally on Friday, its FOMC turn.

All eyes are on the Fed monetary policy meeting this week and due to the fact that last Friday's NFP report was rather disappointing, with only 96000 jobs added (considerably below forecasts of 130000). Consequently, expectations for a third round of QE to be introduced at the upcoming meeting have increased.

The final Outcome may be on Friday after 2 days of meeting.

>>> NIFTY <<<

> Click the Chart to see on full screen <

After a big gap up Opening on Friday - and followed by the consolidation today - it seems - Bulls are little bit tired.

Now as marked with arrow mark on chart 5350 plays an important support, if breaks then may test the following support - 5343 / 5327 & 5310.

If 5310 Breaks, then Nifty may try to fill the gap left at 5240 on Chart.

Lets Wait and See. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 08.09.2012

Dear All,

The ECB's announcement on Thursday that it is prepared to make unlimited bond purchases in order to lower borrowing costs for countries in crisis could mark a turning point in the euro crisis. German commentators, however, criticize the bank for becoming a hostage to politics.

Jens Weidmann, head of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, and a prominent member of the ECB Governing Council, has been vocally opposed to restarting bond purchases. He was the only member of the ECB's 22-member Governing Council to vote against the decision on Thursday.

Some of the elements of the new program appear to be designed to assuage German concerns. For example, the ECB will only assist countries that appeal for help to the euro bailout fund and submit to the required austerity conditions. Draghi also indicated that any bond purchases would be counteracted by measures to ensure that the money supply in the euro zone remains stable in order to avoid inflation, a top concern in Germany.

So it very Clear that German is Not happy with Dhragi's decision to Purchase Bonds. So there can be a Twist and Turns in coming days which may rock the world market once again.

Back Home fuel prices won't be increased immediately, sources say government has no other option but go for an across-the-board hike. Thus prices of petrol, diesel, LPG cylinder and kerosene will be increased.

Market experts still believe the government will consider hike in petrol or diesel prices soon, though Minister of State and Oil said the prices of diesel would not go up in near future.

However key UPA ally Trinamool Congress on Thursday said it will oppose any fuel price hike.


>>>NIFTY<<<

> Click the chart to see on Full Screen<

If you have read my Post for last one week, then you won't get surprised for the rally on friday. Finally the Trend line support worked out and Nifty rallied for more than 100 Points in a single day. As Per Chart attached above 5342 is an Important Resistance. But on Saturday Trade Nifty able to closed at 5358 should be noted. So next week if Nifty able to hold 5342 then 5448.6 shall be the Next Resistance which is the Recent High.


>>>BANK NIFTY<<<

Last two Week have wrote about the Bank Nifty - Cautioned our Readers that Bank Nifty may fall Badly.

As per attached chart - Now it seems Bank Nifty is on the Path of Recovery. Bank Nifty able to cross important Resistance 10130. Next Resistance shall be 10228, 10272 & 10325.

>WEEKLY CHARTS FOLLOW UP<

>>>AXIS BANK<<<

Chart given on 31st Aug, 2012

>Click the chart to see on full screen< Happened till 07th Sep, 2012

>Click the Chart to See on Full Screen< Warned about Axis Bank Break down on 01st Sep near 990 level. Stock melted down to 927 on 05th Sep. But We unfortunately missed to encash it as we covered our Shorts earlier with mild Profit. Refer our Performance Sheet below for the same. Now as per 2nd Chart on Axis - its time for a Relief Rally - hence forth it may rally up to 1020 to 1035 in next week.

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

Profit Booked & Un-booked remains at 41625 for the first Week of Sep,2012.
We had 3 more weeks remaining. Lets See.


>>> CHART OF THE WEEK <<< >>> AUROPHARMA <<<

>Click the chart to see in full screnn<

So whats running Auro Pharma for the Last 2 Days :-

Aurobindo Pharma gets US nod for anti-hypertension pills
Annual sales of these capsules stood at nearly $500 million for the twelve months ending March 2012

The company has received final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Amlodipine Besylate and Benazepril Hydrochloride capsules.

As per News and Chart - Auro Pharma had a convincing Break Out above 118 and We had a Buy call at 122. Refer Our Performance Sheet above. On Saturday it reached 131. Stock had a Resistance betwen 131 and 135, where it may consolidate and move up for a Potential Target of 150 in Short Span of time.