Sunday, March 15, 2015

Weekly Review 16.03.2015

Dear All,

The raising consumer inflation raised concern about Next Rate Cut and sudden increase in Bond Yield - made the market nervous.

A raising bond yield doesn't sound good for a Rate Cut and reacted on a negative side for Bank Nifty to slide.

The SENSEX has already slipped as much as 1521 points from its record high of 30024.74 hit earlier in the month of March. Pressure on rupee, concerns over key bills and sooner-than-expected interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve made investors cautious.


The sharp correction this week was primarily due to global risk-off trade, triggered by fear the US Federal Reserve would advance an interest rate increase. The panic led to sell-off in emerging markets and risky assets, as well as a surge in the dollar. Fund tracking firm EPFR pegged outflows in Asia emerging market funds at $2.4 billion.

Foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows from the Indian market were muted. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 67 crore, while their domestic counterparts sold shares worth an equal amount, according to provisional exchange data.

Analysts say the market has come under pressure due to weak corporate earnings and lack of near-term triggers in the Union Budget.

Analysts say most positive reports have been priced in, as Indian markets are trading at about 10 per cent above their long-term valuations. The Sensex is trading at 17 times its one-year forward earnings estimate.

Meanwhile Overseas investors have pumped in nearly Rs 14,000 crore into the Indian capital markets within a fortnight of this month, taking the total inflow to around Rs 72,000 crore since the beginning of the year.

The analysts expect the inflows to accelerate further going ahead following the passage of the Insurance Bill in Parliament and assurances in the Union Budget to revisit controversial issues like General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR).

The latest inflow takes the foreign investments in the country's capital markets (equity and debt segments) to Rs 71,958 crore ($11.63 billion) so far this year

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

RSI made a Break down. Price needs to break below the trend line for a bearish confirmation. 15 Week Moving Average should be watched as usual.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Immediate support @ 8590, If breaks then 8468 or 8450 should be the next Support.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

8590 Looks important for Bulls. If 8590 Breaks Price may fall till 8468 or 8450. Else there can be a bounce as relief rally.

At the same time, there are chances for Nifty to move till 8290 on the downside as a-b-c to fill a gap left as shown on chart. As expected if there is any relief rally - it must be used for exiting Longs or Selling at higher level.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On 04th March we had a short on bank Nifty @ 20,000 - 20300 Level. Now the Price almost near the final Target 18500. Almost a 1500 Points Profit.

Above chart looks like a Head and shoulder, If this is not wrong, Just imagine what shall be the next ?.

Trend Line and 100 Day Moving Average should rescue the Bulls now. Else Disaster to continue.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

FAN on the chart clearly reveals how the price resisted at every time and breaks the support to fall every time. If the Price doesn't holds the bottom most fan, fall to continue.

Bank Nifty has given to us almost 2500 Points Profit on last 2 calls.

>>> STOCK PERFORMANCE of the Week <<<

>>> DRREDDY Daily Chart - As Posted on 10th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 10th March, 2015 to Sell DrReddy. See what happened.

>>> DRREDDY - Hourly Chart - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break below the trend line may trigger a free fall. We had a Part Booking for Rs.12500. More fall likely. Sell on every rise.

>>> COLPAL <<<

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We are in short from 2110 onwards. Price completed its 1-5 Rally. Expecting a fall form here. Sell on ever rise.

>>> Rcom - As Posted on 12th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Continue to hold Rcom. Break out on Both Price and RSI. Rally coming soon.

>>> EXIDEIND <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After completing the rally as 1-5 wave, Price broken the channel and confirmed the bearish side. As shown on chart - A Throw Back on Price - Giving a Selling Opportunity. Just Sell on Rise.

>>> PERFORMANCE till 13th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

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