Saturday, January 31, 2015

Weekly Review - 02.02.2015

Dear All,

Market melted on Friday. Reason for the fall sited as Worst Result from Banking Sector & Coal India's mega offering saw the markets post their biggest drop in three weeks on Friday. Earnings posted by ICICI Bank and Bank of Baroda raised asset quality concerns, spooking banking stocks - which have weight of nearly a third on benchmark indices. Market players said selling pressure accentuated as investors liquidated their positions to invest in the share sale of state-owned Coal India.

The amount of funds that were required to participate in the Coal India issue was huge. To generate funds, investors had to liquidate existing positions.

After RBI rate cut, Banking sector saw a sharp rally which started fading after poor results and raising NPA. Now every one's eye on Feb 03rd RBI meeting. Next Trigger on Union Budget at Feb 28th.

>>> All time High Open Interest <<<

Outstanding positions in equity futures hit all-time highs on Thursday when January derivative contracts expired as traders rolled over bets to the February series ahead of the Union Budget.

Analysts said traders rolled over bullish positions in futures contracts of Nifty, banks, capital goods, oil and gas and power on hopes the government may announce pro-market measures in the Budget and the Reserve Bank of India may cut rates further in its meeting next week.

"If Nifty breaches 9000, the index may continue to 9300-9400 levels. We expect Nifty to hit the 9000 mark in the next couple of days, but the index may find strong resistance around these levels because traders may opt to book some profits," said Hemant Nahata, derivatives analyst at IIFL.

Open interest, or outstanding positions, in all Nifty and stock contracts was Rs 90,400 crore against Rs 76,900 crore at the start of the January series. The market-wide rollover stands at 83%, compared with average rollover of 78% in the last three series. Nifty rollover was also higher at 77% compared with the average rollover of 69% in the last three series.

India VIX, or the volatility index — a measure of traders' expectations of near-term risks in the market — closed at 19.43% on Thursday. This level was last seen in June 2014. Analysts expect the volatility index to increase to 23-24% in the first half of February.

So lets see what are the Important Key Events for Next Week :-

Mon: Application deadline for payments, small bank licences

HSBC manufacturing PMI

Tues: RBI policy review

Wed: Delhi state assembly elections

India HSBC Services PMI

>>> Danger ahead for Euro Zone <<<

Lets See some European News, which may have a major trigger in international market also. After ECB easing and Out come of New Greece Govt, tension raped between ECB and Greece's left-wing Syriza govt. for their pending debt issue.

It seems like new Greece govt not interested to stay with EuroZone. But Mrs Merkel told the Hamburger Abendblatt newspaper she still wanted Greece to stay in the eurozone.

The European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - had agreed a €240bn (£179bn; $270bn) bailout with the previous Greek government.

But new Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has refused to work with the troika to renegotiate the bailout terms and has already begun to roll back the austerity measures the creditors had demanded of the previous government.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out cancelling any of Greece's debt, saying banks and creditors have already made substantial cuts.

On Friday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned Greece about its negotiation tactics on writing off debt.

"There's no arguing with us about this, and what's more we are difficult to blackmail," he said.

Finance Minister Varoufakis on Friday refused to work with the troika, saying he would instead talk to individual organisations and EU member states.

Greece's current programme of loans ends on 28 February. A final bailout tranche of €7.2bn still has to be negotiated.

If all these fails due to new govt, Greece would run out of cash, at the latest by July and August, when close to €7 billion ($7.9 billion) worth of Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank fall due. This may really collapse the eruozone.

Apart from all the above Data's / Events and Expectations, Technicals gives us a different views. Lets See whats that...

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Weekly Nifty - have a clear answer. When Price moving up MACD and RSI on a clear Negative Divergence.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hope above chart is crystal clear and no more explanations needed here.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart - As Posted on 29th Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 29th Jan, 2015, 9009 was a clear Resistance and get ready for a Sell. See what Happened.

>>> Nifty Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes, We shorted @ 8950. First Target Met. Now looking for 2nd and 3rd Target very soon.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

bank Nifty completed 1-5 Upmove. Game Over.


>>> CANBK - As Posted Last Weeekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Canara Bank given last week - as a Clear Sell,wrote as, wave B forming a rising wedge. See what happened.

>>> CANBK - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Yes - its was a 15 days struggle for the stock the break the wedge. We had shorted and booked some part profit. Expect more slide next week also.

>>> ASHOKLEY - As Posted on 29th Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ashok Leyland - As per our last weekly Update - Our Short Hit SL @ 66. Later on 29th Jan 2015 we re-entered short @ 69 Level. As expected Price started falling - Highly bearish since there is a Bearish Engulfing candle stick Pattern on the upper trend line - Lets see more details on Hourly Chart also.

>>> ASHOKLEY - Hourly Chart - Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price resisted exactly from the Red colour Middle line on Hourly chart, Price almost made a free fall from the level we gave. Now If the bottom of the channel breaks, Free Free Fall once again. We are holding our shorts for a big gain.

>>> YES BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes We shorted @ 880 and Holding. Lets wait for a good fall.

>>> Performance for the Month end of Jan, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

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