Monday, December 31, 2012

Happy New Year 2013

Dear All,

It seems Market waiting for US Fiscal Cliff Deal.

Second quarter current account deficit has hit an all time high of 5.4% of gross domestic product as exports fell by 12%. Also trade deficit has climbed to USD 48 billion.

No change in Nifty Levels, So lets see how Nifty react on the the New Year.


WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR 2013.

Cheers!!!

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Weekly Report - 31.12.2012

Dear All,

As like Last week the US Fiscal Cliff Fear still ON. So the Deadline on Monday, Dec 31st.

Meanwhile Market likely to focus on India's current account data for July-September due on Monday also with any hike in petrol prices by the government to reduce the mounting subsidy burden of oil marketing companies.

Meanwhile PMEAC Mr. Rangarajan again said that the reversal of monetary policy stand by the Reserve bank will come only when inflation shows definite signs of decline.

Lets see what Technical's Says.

>>> NIFTY - DAILY <<<


>click the chart to see on full screen<


Nifty almost inside the triangle for last 1 month, break on either side should decide the trend.

>>>NIFTY-HOURLY<<<

>As given on Last Weekly Review<

>click the chart to see on full screen<



As wrote on Last weekly Review, Nifty moved up above 5900, also i advised not to short. As expected Nifty moved up nicely and made a high of 5930.

So whats next ??

>>>Happened and Expectation<<<

>click the chart to see on full screen<



Unlike Last week, Nifty again doing an a-b-c-d-e correction as shown on chart. Two alternatives given on chart with explanations. Resistance 5910 should be broken on the upper side for any upmove.

>>>TATA STEEL - WEEKLY STOCK<<<


>click the chart to see on full screen<


Tata Steel - Looks week in short term. As shown on chart have broken the trend line and may touch the bottom of the channel line. Lets see!!!

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

>>Click the Image to see on full screen<<
Almost Neutral or small Negative Performance this Month. Some Mid-Cap did not performed as I expected. IFCI,Siemens,JpPower and SunTV did not Performed as I expected. Hope to do it Nicely Next Month. Lets See!!!

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Bull - PAUSE

Dear All,

>>> NIFTY <<<
>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Nifty as I wrote on Blog moved up. As I feel this is a WXY upmove, still there is some more upmove pending. But bulls may take a pause before an upmove.

Support at 5840-45 and 5780

If breaks below 5840 may test 5780.

Resistance 5910.

Lets See. Cheers!!!

TECHNICAL ISSUE

Dear All,

Sorry for not Updating for last 4 Days. My Laptop had a Technical Issue and I am trying to solve it at the earliest. Will start Updating at the earliest.

N4A

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Weekly Review - 24.12.2012

Dear All,


Market So Far :-

Marked ended Lower last week, especially on friday due to worries from US Fiscal Cliff Danger after a US Republican proposal failed to muster support raising worries that the US can avoid the 'fiscal cliff' which calls for spending cuts and tax hikes starting January 1, 2013.

Markets are hoping for a solution to the US ‘fiscal cliff’ issue because if a solution is not reached, it can impact sentiments negatively


So whats a Fiscal Cliff means:-

Ever since the global economic crisis hit in the year 2008-09 the world economy importantly the US economy has taken a severe beating. Globally to avert the crisis the central banks have relied on the deficit spending including the US. However the deficit spending also called as money printing and the quantitative easing by the economists came along with huge burden of debt. Similarly in the year 2011, when the US wanted to borrow more money it had to raise the debt ceiling because there is limit to its borrowing which can only be increased with a vote of congress. In the same year the US passed the bill and extended the debt ceiling to $14.3 trillion.


This would not have been possible without the government’s promise of controlling the spending and restoring the tax cuts and other subsidies in the stipulated time so that the fiscal deficit could be controlled. Thus the Budget Control Act 2011 was passed, which said that if it fails to do so and achieve the desired economic growth than that will automatically trigger the restoration of the tax cuts and subsidies. Spending on different programmes like administrative and the defence spending will be cut automatically. Unfortunately the time has come when all these terms of Budget Control Act will expire by the end of December 2012, which is also known as Fiscal Cliff. So the Fiscal Cliff was created due to the series of such actions including the approval of Bush era tax cuts in 2001 and 2003.

How far its Danger :-

Including all the automatic tax increases and spending cuts the estimates suggests that the US economy could take a hit of about $500-600 billion, which is about 4% of its GDP and good enough to take the GDP back to recession. On an average about $2,200 extra in taxes will be paid by the average family.

So its no doubt that a failure in fiscal cliff may certainly hit the world markets like Europe China and India too.


Finally :-

Last Week debacle in the US House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.


Back Home :-

1) Mean while RBI left its Key Rates Unchanged on Tuesday and hinted that it may cut rates if the Inflation shows way for it.

2) The Lok Sabha, late Monday, cleared the Banking Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2011, after Finance Minister P Chidambaram agreed to drop the contentious proposal on allowing banks to do futures trading.

3) Also Finance Ministry cleared the ways to Issue Banking Licences to New Player and said they may infuse fresh capitals into Major PSU Banks if needed.

4) Further, the Lok Sabha on Tuesday approved the much-awaited Companies Bill, 2011, making it mandatory for profit-making companies to spend on activities related to corporate social responsibility (CSR). If a company does not do so, it will have to explain the reasons for it.

The changes in the Bill include provisions that make it mandatory for firms — those that have reported profits of Rs 5 crore or more in last three years — to spend at least two per cent of their average net profit on CSR activities. Companies failing to meet the obligation and not disclosing reasons for it in their books of account would face action, including penalty.

>>>NIFTY - Daily<<<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty on Friday broken the Support 5848.

Also closed below 20 Day Simple Moving Average, which may be a first sign of bear.

But Price should break below 5815 for more weakness.

>>>NIFTY - Hourly<<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Above Hourly chart with Andrew's Pitchfork - Broken the median Line, suggest a more fall ahead, may touch the bottom Support Trend Line.

>>>> Nifty Hourly - Alternative <<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Its a 4th wave expanding triangle still moving as W-X-Y.

Earlier I have marked as end of 4th wave and upmove assumed at 5th wave, but fridays down move below 5848 suggested an alternative count for 4th sub wave as W-X-Y.

As every years December should be a Bullish Year, Unlike this year inspite of several positive approaches from Govt side and Many break out on stocks like Banking and Steel suggested that Bulls are not tiered, but instead lets assume that there may be some more consolidation in Nifty.

Possible move are charted as above. So it seems like more volatile ahead. My advice for Nifty traders, don't take any aggressive Shorts or Longs until there much more evidence or confirmation on chart, means Stop Loss may hit on both sides in coming days, if I am not wrong.

Lets see..

>>>OPTO CIRCUIT<<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Opto Circuit - Medical Device Manufacturer issued 20 Lak Convertible Warrants to Promoters for Rs 145 per convertible warrant or as per the pricing formula as stipulated in SEBI's (ICDR) Regulations 2009, which ever is higher. Opto will get Rs 29 crore through the issue.

So technically there is a Positive divergence on the daily chart and volume shows some accumulation happening. Price has retraced exactly 78.6% from the high of Rs.260 to 98.6.

More Upmove above the Trend line as shown on the chart.

Cheers!!!

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<


>Click the image to see on full screen<














Thursday, December 20, 2012

More Bull Action Left !!!

Dear All,

>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Nifty took support as per my Message

(20/Dec/2012 10:42:18): ****N4A-NIFTY-VIEW**** Nifty Spot Support 5895 and 5880. If holds then Possible Upmove. Resis 5910 and 5940 to Break for Upmove

5881 Low made on spot. Hope last 5th wave is in Progress.

Resistance 5927,5940,5954 and 5974.

Support 5880 and 5840

Lets see. Cheers!!!

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Break Out Confirmed ???

Dear All


>>> NIFTY <<<<

>>Click the Chart to see on full screen<<


Ofcourse Nifty gave a Gap Up today and confirmed the Break Out as said Yesterday. It seems like 5th sub wave on its way. Today Nifty Spot took support near 5910 and seems it should fill the gap made today as abc as marked in green color in chart. Else if breaks above 5940 tomorrow may move above firmly.

Support 5910 / 5895 and 5880.

Resistance 5940.

Lets See.


>>> SUN TV <<<

>>Click the Chart to see on full screen<<






Sun Tv - Looks like a fall below the channel mentioned on chart. Caution Advised.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Is this a Break Out ???

Dear All,


Nifty though broken 5838 and went down to comply with a-b-c-d-e for 4th sub wave. Todays chart seems like a Break out as the last fall looks like a truncated one.

Resistance at 5910 and 5930. Support 5840, 5823 and 5805.

>>Rpower<<< as given on 05th Dec,2012


Rpower given on 5th Dec as a Break out. Stock did not performed till now and hovering around 100-101 range.

Reliance Power was down nearly 2 percent intraday on Tuesday as its promoters are going to sell 5.42 percent stake in the company via offer for sale (OFS) route on December 19.

The company said its promoters Reliance Infrastructure Limited, Reliance Innoventures Private Limited and AAA Project Ventures Private Limited will sell 15,20,51,807 equity shares aggregating to approximately 5.42 percent of the paid up equity share capital of Reliance Power Limited through a sale on the separate window provided by the BSE.

The sale shall commence on December 19, 2012 at 12 p.m. and shall close on the same day at 3 p.m, according to release sent to exchange.

Floor price shall not be publicly disclosed by sellers. Axis Capital is sole broker to the stake sale.

Lets wait and See!!!

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Weekly Review 17.12.2012

Dear All,

If you are in Stock Market then You Must LOVE - Mr. P. Chidambaram - Finance Minister.


Yes, its a 100% True. When he took over as FM after Mr. Pranabji Left his Seat, Mr. PC was very busy in addressing the following issues,

1) Investor confidence
2) Inflation
3) Widening fiscal deficit
4) Yawning current account deficit.

To gain the confidence of foreign investors, Chidambaram has to find ways to arrest and reverse the powerful negative trend in India's growth which has ended up in a yawning gap in the nation's fiscal balance and high inflation, left behind by his predecessor and the new Indian President Pranab Mukherjee. Perhaps this was also the main reason behind the decision of the UPA leadership to project Pranab Mukherjee as the presidential candidate

Every market men knows that Mr. PC is a real doctor who can cure all the above diseases.


So far the Most argued or most criticized FDI in Retail Bill was Passed in Parliament is a big Success for Mr. PC.

So whats Next ...

Banking Bill:- seems to have reached an agreement with opposition, may be passed in both house next week, this may bring more foreign investment in to the baking industry as a whole.

GAAR:- The government is working on the recommendations of Parthasarathy Shome Committee, which had suggested modification in laws dealing with General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) and retrospective tax law amendments.

Chidambaram said that in the last five months, government has taken several measures to bring the economy back to high growth path through fiscal consolidation, addressing inflation concerns, external sector vulnerabilities and increasing investor confidence.

Last weekly Review gave as below, 5940 act as a Resistance ...

>>> Nifty - Daily <<< As Anticipated ...


>Click the Chart to see on full screen<


Happened So Far ...

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<


So Nifty unable to Cross 5940 and not broken 5815 on the down side and made a side way movement.

>>>Nifty - Hourly <<< As Anticipated ...


>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

As Mentioned last week still there are possibilities of 2 alternatives as mentioned on green and Yellow counts. So whats next..

As Happened so far ...

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<


As wrote last week and also followed by many post, 5838 not broken so far means..

i) Upmove wave 5th may be going on as I have marked with white colored (i) and (ii)

ii) Else a-b-c-d-e consolidation may happen as the current move inside a channel marked in Yellow colored and possible to touch the lower channel of expanding triangle.


>>>SBIN<<<




>Click the Chart to see on full screen<


Bullish Pole Flag Break Out - But as I wrote Last Weekly Review its safe to Buy above 2340 Refer

http://niftyforall.blogspot.in/2012/12/weekly-review-10122012.html

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<




Cheers!!!

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Is this a Bear Mode ???

Dear All,

>>click the chart to see on full screen<<

5865 gone. Now Last hope on 5838-40, if broken then a short term bear trend may emerge.

Alternative :-

>>click the chart to see on full screen<<

Alternative Count for Nifty - Suggest a Fall upto 5805-5800 as Sub wave 4 forming a a-b-c-d-e - expanding triangle.

>> Apollo Tyre <<

>>click the chart to see on full screen<<

Apollo Tyre:- If breaks the Trend Line as given, get ready for a Free fall.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

5865 Holding. Cat on a Wall.

Dear All,

>click the chart to see on full screen<

No Major change in Nifty as 5865 Holding on Support and 5930 did not cross. Its a lackluster trade after a good IIP Data.

Political chaos on Banking Bill, Inflation worries and fear of Rate Cut from RBI worries Traders and FII's. S&P warned about possibility of downgrading, Wallmart Bribe for Passing Bill on FDI in retail - making the Political and economic situation more dimm.

Lets wait for more clarity !!!


Today Lets see an Important Bill Passed today on Parliament !

The Enforcement of Security Interest and Recovery of Debts Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2011

>click the image to see on full screen<

Some Important Point are :-

1) Indian Banks NPAs had risen to around 3.5%, it was not too high for an emerging economy like India, due to this Bill Recovery shall be faster than before to improve the Financial situation of Banks - Especially PSU Banks.

2) The Debt Recovery Act does not apply to loans of less than Rs 10 lakh, means a common Individual, Farmers or small traders. Aiming particularly on big corparates like KFA

This means lot to cheers for Bank whose NPS's kept rising in recent Years.

>> Bank Nifty <<

>click the chart to see on full screen<

In spite of Bank Regulation Bill on Parliament - Nifty on important support 12300-340 as its look like a H&S.

Instead EW suggest a pending 5th wave upmove. Lets see.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Key 5865 to Decide the Trend !!!

Dear All

>>>click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ofcourse 5880 Broken the earlier support and managed to close above the support.

Now 5865 seems to be the Key support. Refer the Chart for details

Counts marked with Yellow colored (i) and (ii) suggest the 5th wave upmove as 5865 should not be broken tomorrow.

If 5865 broken then may fall down for completes a-b-c-d-e as marked on Green Colored. Support 5840,5815 and 5775 may be tested.

Resistance 5945,5965 and 5990. Lets See!!! Cheers!!!

Monday, December 10, 2012

5880 - Support to Decide !!!

>>click the chart to see on full screen<<

Yes, 5880 Support to decide the Next Move. If not broken we shall see immediate upmove, else should touch 5860 and 5815 levels.

Saturday, December 08, 2012

Weekly Review - 10.12.2012

Dear All,

>>>Weekly - Nifty <<<
>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Weekly Chart of Nifty Shows the Resistance as Previous high 5944.

If able to cross the Resistance then it should touch the Upper Channel as shown on Chart - Possibly 6030 Next Week.

On 28th November,2012 wrote in the Blog as "Crouching Bull Hidden Bear" See the Below link for details
http://niftyforall.blogspot.in/2012/11/crouching-bull-hidden-bear.html
as 600 Point Rally as it was a Bullish Flag Pattern as below

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

So far we had almost 223 Points Rally from 5727 to 5950. So whats Next ???

>>>Daily Nifty <<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty - Daily Chart suggest 5940 as Resistance and 5815 as a Support for Next Week. Cross above 5940 may give another 90 Points Rally till 6030.

>>> Hourly - Nifty <<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Above given is a Hourly Nifty Chart. I have given two Possibilities as below

>>> Nifty may test 5815 if the 4th sub wave shall be divided as a-b-c-d-e.

>>> Nifty may continue as 5th sub wave if the support 5880 or 5860 holds.

Lets see.


>>>Bank Nifty <<<

Written on 29th Nov, in "Its a Warning to Bear" about Bank Nifty, Else click the Below Linke to see it http://niftyforall.blogspot.in/2012/11/its-warning-to-bear.html as chart given below

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

As Mentioned Triangle break should give a 1000 Point Rally, means almost after break out has ran up 500 points so far. So whats next.

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Now Bank Nifty facing resistance near 12470-80 and 12800. Support at 11475.

>>> BANK STOCKS <<<


It should be agreed that Bank Stocks played major role in this rally like SBI, ICICI and Axis Bank. Lets see how its going to be on next week.

As Govt had successfully passed the FDI in Retail both in Lokh sabha and Rajya Sabha, Govt now keen to pass the Insurance and Pension bill in Parliament.

Also there is a huge expectation that RBI may slash the Interest rate in coming week, which may increase the Positive sentiment in the market.

So above all are very important for market as well as the Bank Sector in Particular. So lets see some major Blue chip Bank stocks this week


>>>SBIN<<<
>Click the chart to see on full screen<

State Bank Of India - Weekly Chart shows a triangle Pattern. 2340 act as a Stiff Resistance. Break above shall give a Big Bull Rally. Fail to break the Resistance Line may test 1950 approx.

>>> ICICI BANK <<<
>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Again the Weekly Chart of ICICI Bank shows the Price was resisted on a 78.6% Golden Ratio. 1140-45 act as a Stiff Resistance.


>>>AXIS BANK <<<
>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Axis Weekly Chart shows a Resistance as Previous High 1367, cross above may test the golden ratio 78.6% or 1432.

Lets See!!! Cheers!!!

Thursday, December 06, 2012

Bottoming Tail !!!

Dear All,

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Yet another Bullish day, Nifty closed above the channel and candle stick suggest a Bottoming Tail as shown on chart.

Sellers tried to pull down the index failed and later closed above the opening suggest Bulls are still energetic and run more in days to come.

Earlier in my blog I have suggested that since this is a Extension wave many short sellers may get trapped, like it happened today.

Lets see..

Wednesday, December 05, 2012

FDI Vs NIFTY !!!!

Dear All,

>>>NIFTY<<<

>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<

Nifty crossed 5890 Resistance and trying to move above the expanding Channel shows that the Upmove may continue.

On Going debate on Parliament on FDI Retail should really Impact the Nifty Movement tomorrow.

Resistance 5938,5990 Should be watched. Support 5855-50.

>>RPOWER<<

>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<

Rpower forming a Bullish Pole Flag Pattern, Break out confirm above the channel line as given on chart. Support at 96 and 92.

>>>IFCI<<<

>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<

IFCI - Stock testing the Neck line for the Second time, If unable to Cross, a big fall not ruled out.

EW suggest Caution ahead. Lets See.!!! Cheers!!!