Monday, November 14, 2016

Weekly Review - 15th Nov, 2016

Dear All,

The current scenario on Demonetisation and followed by its impact on every business houses is unknown and it seems index may feel the pressure until the situation stabilizes. Every day news flowing as General Public flushing in Bank and ATM's for Money. There are lot of assurance and steps being taken by govt to stabilize the situation.

Last week counts changed a lot after Price made a New Low on Nifty near 8003 & Bank Nifty Near 18193, though price managed to made a high again same days shows the strength of the bulls. Price need to hold some support to maintain the strength as discussed below.

Altogether - entire market may change as per the news flow and actions taken by govt.

Industrial production data :-

Country’s factory output grew 0.7% in September, recovering only marginally from the previous month’s fall of (-) 0.7%, data released on Friday showed. Experts believe thanks to festive demand, the October output figures, to be released next month, could come out better, but are unlikely to see significant pick up in the coming months hit by an unexpected ban on Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes.

Inflation data :-

Key macro inflation data points - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) are expected to be released on Tuesday. The inflation figures will be closely in focus especially with RBI (Reserve Bank of India) scheduled to announce monetary policy early December. A Citigroup report last week estimated that retail inflation may soften to 4.1% in October and ease further to sub-4% level by November-December, largely helped by favourable base effect.

Fischer comment :-

In his first remarks after Republican Donald Trump won the US presidential election, Stanley Fischer, the second-in-command at Federal Reserve said US economic growth prospects appear strong enough for the Fed to proceed with gradual interest rate rises. The Fed Vice Chair, however, added that the central bank will keep an eye on rising long-term government borrowing costs.

"Of course we will watch events and depending on how the market turns out and how the economy turns out we will adjust our policy if we think that's necessary," Fischer said.

Global data :-

On the global front, the US industrial production data and the US crude stocks will be key data to watch, which will get declared on Wednesday. Investors will also keep a watch on Japanese GDP and euro zone’s industrial production and GDP numbers on Tuesday, data on Chinese housing prices will be released on Friday.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If the price down on last trading day was wave B, expect wave C on the upper side.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again on hourly chart also - price shows the importance of 8285 and 8230.

>>> BankNifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Demonetisation may give PSU banks a Big Push. But currency scarcity may be an issue and give a lot of pressure to govt and banks. Any clarity from current confusion may give a clear direction.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price need to hold 19580 and 19500 for a possible upmove.

>>> MCDOWELL-N - Hold Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long and will decide as per market movement.

>>> N4A - Service <<<