The market had started the previous week on a strong note, with the Nifty hitting a record high of 10,178.95 (on September 19). However, the sell-off in the later part of the week (especially on Friday when it lost 1.5 percent) wiped out those gains and the index ended the week below the psychological 10,000-mark, with a 1.2 percent loss on likely another hydrogen bomb test by North Korea and after S&P downgraded China's credit rating.
After this correction, the market may see some bounce-back amid consolidation initially in the coming week. But the rally may not be sustainable due to ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea. Now, Iran also successfully tested its new medium-range missile despite warnings from Washington.
Apart from the above factors, FII trend, monsoon update and currency movement will also remain on the participant. Major fall is unlikely in the coming week, unless geopolitical tensions are intensified.
North Korea :-
North Korea's reply to the US Trump's tweet on Thursday saying it may consider testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean hit market sentiment globally.
So investors will closely watch developments in North Korea.
Experts feel this North Korea tension will remain the main factor to watch out for, at least till it subsides completely.
Meanwhile, China on Saturday said it would limit oil exports to North Korea under UN sanctions over its nuclear and missile development. The world's second largest economy will also ban textile imports from the North.
Rupee :-
On Friday, fiscal woes due to reports of likely government's stimulus to revive economy caused selling pressure in the rupee on last Friday morning. However, it recovered all its losses in the later part of the session to end flat due to RBI's intervention, and selling of dollars by exporters & banks.
Many experts feel if the government gives stimulus then the FY18 target for fiscal deficit may not be achieved.
"A stimulus can potentially increase the central government's fiscal deficit to 3.5-3.7 percent of GDP in FY18, from the budgeted 3.2 percent target (3.5 percent of GDP achieved in FY17), depending on the size of the stimulus (0.3-0.5 percent of GDP). This would be a setback to the fiscal consolidation momentum that was endured through the past few years," Deutsche Bank said.
Macro data :-
The macro economic data on infrastructure output for August and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended September 22 (which already crossed USD 400 billion in previous week) will be released on Friday after market hours.
India’s budget balance; external debt for the quarter ended June 2017; deposit growth; and bank loan growth data will also be announced on Friday after market hours.
Global cues :-
Japan's Manufacturing PMI for September will be released on Monday while Bank of Japan will announce minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting on Tuesday.
In US, new home sales data for August will be declared on Tuesday and final GDP data for Q2 on Thursday.
>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<
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Still ABCDE on Focus and if the channel breaks - may invalidate the count. Serious Correction Possible.
>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<
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On Hourly Chart - Some Hope left for Bulls - If 9948 or 9925 holds - a Recovery can be Strong.
>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<
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Capital inadequacy - Bond Sell Off - Weaness in Rupee - Slowdown in Growth - Leads to Banking Space Sell off. New Policy announcement from govt. may trigger movement on both side. Price already out of the channel shows the serious Warning from Bear. 24330 & 24220 Plays an important role to Bulls.
>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<
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Gaps are getting filled. Lets wait for clarity next week.
>>> CNXPSUBank - Daily Chart <<<
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Watch PSU Banking Space - for a Make or Break Move next Week.
>>> SBIN - Hourly Chart - Posted on 16th Sep, 2017 <<<
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Wrote on above Post - Price may correct if breaks the support.
>>> SBIN - Hourly Chart <<<
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Almost near the support if holds - may come back again.
>>> CNXPHARMA - Daily Chart <<<
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Pharma Index might consolidate or correct after making a stunning rally. Watch all Pharma Stocks for consolidation.
>>> DRReddy Daily Chart - Posted on 13th Aug, 2017 <<<
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Posted on 13th Aug - Weekly Review - Price near 2000 - Mentioned as a Turn Around Story for DrReddy. See What happened.
>>> DRReddy Daily Chart - 500 Points Rally so far <<<
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Expect some consolidation before further rally. Support @ 2445 - 2395 - 2350. Resistance @ 2500. Congrats for those who made a Stunning Profit.
>>> CNXIT - Daily Chart - Posted on 16th Sep, 2017 <<<
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Wrote - Support 10420 as Support.
>>> CNXIT - Daily Chart > Next Possible Rally <<<
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Possible for a Triangle Break out if 10420 Support HOlds.
>>> NIFTY - MidCap50 - Hourly Chart <<<
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Price must hold 4770 & 4710 for a Pull Back Rally.
>>> CNXMetals Hourly Chart <<<
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Metal Stocks should hold 3480 & 3460 for a Pull back rally, Else sell to continue.
>>> Performance till 22nd Sep, 2017 <<<
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Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision
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