Sunday, August 19, 2012

Weekly Review - 20.08.2012

Dear All,

In Spite of Many Negative News & Scams Market Holding Up due to ..???

> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have infused a net amount of $1.02 billion (about Rs 5,692 crore) in August so far, taking the total for this year to $11.4 billion (Rs 57,958 crore) in Indian equities, according to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

> Even though Corporate profit margins have fallen for five quarters, dropping below 5 per cent in April-June 2012, interests costs have ballooned, market moving up steadily is surprising as what FII's know something that we don’t, or share prices are completely out of line with fundamental projections.

> Much more bad news have lined up like Weak Mansoon - followed by rise in NPA for the Banks and climbing debt levels. So RBI kept saying many times - nothing in their hand as far as Govt reduce its expenditure and stop supply side which was keeping the Inflation at the highest level.

> In Practical Growth can't be Possible with out a Rate Cut - as Liquidity is a Major concern for the time being. But RBI wont Cut Rates as Inflation is a Burning Coal.

> On fiscal side Current Account Deficit Kept warming up and No concrete measure so far, may put the risk on the highest ever. Most of the Expert warned about this as worrisome.

> In Independence Day Speech PM hoped that in 2012/13 we would do better than 6.5% on 2011/12. Don't forget what PMEAC (Prime Minister Economic Advisory Council) said on July 2011 that expected the Growth to be around 8.2% in 2011/12. In reality what happend is know to every one as we got 6.5%. In February 212 another report submitted by PMEAC reiterated that the growth should be around 7.5 to 8%. No one other than PMEAC or PM believed these bluffing statement.

> So Why Market is Holding - If only because of FII's continuous flow of Money on their expectation from Policy Makers may act soon - if not what may happen ???. If they change their stance from present level from 'Buy' to 'Sell' then what may happy ? If any more Bad News from Europe - US or any other Major part of the world may trigger a Big Sell Off - So what may happy to Our Index ???

>>> NIFTY <<<

Weekly Chart :-

>Click the chart to see in full screen>

Above Weekly Nifty Chart seems like a Bearish Symmetrical Triangle - If so then the upper Channel should give a Stiff resistance along with 100 week Moving Average.

Intraday Chart:-

>Click the chart to see in full screen>

Above 30 Min Chart shows the raising Channel has been Broken and trying to form a H&S like Pattern - Must wait for a clear Picture yet to come.

Stock Pick for this Week :- IDFC

>Click the chart to see in full screen>

IDFC seems like Negative as it makes a Double Top & Re-tested the Trend Line broken Earlier. We had a Sell call in it and Hope will Fall in coming days.