Saturday, April 05, 2014

Weekly Review - 07.04.2014

Dear All,


Modi-powered NDA may get 234-246 seats, UPA 111-123

A survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) on Friday claimed that NDA minus Telugu Desam Party will win 246 seats.


The pollsters seem to have absolute clarity about the leadership too. They say Modi has an approval rating of 34% while just 15% have polled for Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi.


The BJP is likely to cross 200 seats mark for the first time in its history by bagging 206-218 Lok Sabha seats on its own. The lowest count for the Congress was 114 seats in 1999 and the highest for the BJP is 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

According to election tracker the BJP is making huge gains in the Hindi belt states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jharkhand and its Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. The BJP is ahead of the AAP in Delhi which has 7 Lok Sabha seats.

It is in a close fight with the Congress in Karnataka and slightly ahead in Maharashtra. The BJP is not making any gains in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and other Northeastern states.

It may get a few seats in Telangana, which will be India's 29th state from June 2, 2014.

How to form a government?

The BJP-led NDA may fall short of 30-40 seats for a simple majority figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats. However, it can take the help of YSR Congress Party, TRS, DMK or AIADMK, BSP and TDP to reach the halfway mark. The TMC and BJD have made it clear that they will not back the NDA. But, they can change their mind once the results are out.

Don't know how markets going to react next week. Any way lets go to Technical's - Lets See what Chart says to us...!!!

>>> Nifty - Weekly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote that the trend line on weekly chart may act as a resistance. See what happened

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A Red Doji on the trend line is a Caution Note from bear. So lets See What Daily chart say to us.

>>> Nifty - Daily - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Trend line as resistance - See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So finally the 5 wave upmove has ended and its time to correct. If 6600 breaks then 6420 may be the next level. Lets See.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes it took nearly 60 days to reach from 5933 to 6774 and now broken the base support line. Caution advised.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote - Trend line as resistance - See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is a weekly chart - Resisted @ 78.6% fib level or Trend line. Cross above may test 13600 on the upper side. Else fall to resume with heavy selling.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly View <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

12300 if holds then upmove should resume. Else fall to continue.

>>> SBIN - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above give is a daily chart - I have assumed the entire upmove as a-b-c and the channel, if not able to cross may trigger sell off. More details on Hourly chart given below.

>>> SBIN - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

SBIN on the last leg of upmove. If breaks the base channel - fall must start - Else may run up for another leg on the upper side which may be short lived. So over all caution advised on this stock.

>>> ACC - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Acc - I assumed as completed its A-B-C upmove. Wave C has retraced almost 161.8% of wave A. So if unable to cross the pitchfork then should fall. See more details on Hourly chart also.

>>> ACC - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the trend line after 1-5 upmove completed for Wave C. Firmly closed below the trend line indicates caution also. Lets See.

>>> Tata Chemicals - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again one more stock - Tata Chemical completed its A-B-C and started falling. Now there is a H&S like pattern appears - which we have already published last friday, if breaks then more to fall. One more Caution. Cheers!!!