Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Nifty 35 Month High !!! Expiry & FOMC ????


Nifty hit 35 Month high. Will FOMC Decision will Spoil Sport ????

A day ahead of the word on US Federal Reserve's 85 billion-a-month bond buying program also known as QE3, Indian stock market was fuelled by what could be its last inflow of foreign liquidity if Fed decides to give a Diwali cracker and choses to announce a date for tapering QE3, earlier than what is expected. Analysts however agree this will not be the case as US Fed will be looking for more tangible signs of an economic recovery. However, analysts widely believe that tapering will not begin until March 2014.

The October government shutdown is also believed to have slowed down the economy in Q4. "It will be 2014 before we are able to see a number of months of economic data that may convince the FOMC that the recovery is continuing at a solid pace," said Rabobank Financial Markets.

Market is expected to remain volatile tomorrow as Indian investors mull over taking or rolling over positions into November series F&O contracts.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty made a New High - But caution advised as I feel the 5 wave upmove might have ended. FOMC decision should be the eye opener. Lets wait and See.

>>> Rcom - As given Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

6090 on Hold.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - As given Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Said 100 hr moving average 38.2% Fib Level are Good Support.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty moving up as expected. Previous high 6252 very crucial for Next Move towards New High. Lets wait and see.

>>> Rcom <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Rcom Should Zoom.

Monday, October 28, 2013

Support 6090 & 6040

Dear All,


RBI's second quarter review of monetary policy due tomorrow

The markets are close to their all-time highs, and this is a disconnect with the country's macro economic situation.

Inflation is still high (thanks to ONION) which might make the Reserve bank of India ( RBI) raise policy rates again when it meets tomorrow (October 29).

The RBI is an inflation fighter. In all likelihood, therefore, the RBI will raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% and, possibly, cut the interest rate on its marginal standing facility at which banks borrow from the RBI by a like amount.

Inflation, both at the wholesale and consumer levels, is well into danger zone. Against the RBI's projected average rate of 5.5% for 2013-14 and target rate of 5% for March 2014, wholesale price index inflation was an unacceptably high 6.46% in September 2013 and the consumer price index is close to double digits.

The markets are likely to take cues this week from the outcome of RBI's second quarter review of monetary policy, US Federal Reserve meeting and F&O Derivative expiry due on Thursday.

US Federal Reserve will hold policy meet on October 29 and expectations are it maintains its 'status-quo' stance on tapering. The Fed's policy-setting arm meets on Oct 29-30 and is expected to hold off any move to scale down its $85-billion monthly bond-buying programme.

On the domestic front, markets are factoring in minimum of 25 bps rate from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, any negative surprise on future guidance of rates will upset the trend and we may see some correction.



>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Weekly Review - 28.10.2013

Dear All,

>>> NIFTY WEEKLY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Weekly Chart suggest more upside left. RSI & CCI indications break out shows greater strength for Bulls. Bear Traders should remain cautious.

>>> NIFTY - DAILY - As published on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So lets see what happened this week too.

>>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Crossed the previous high as wrote last week, but unable to hold. Also if break the low mentioned on chart - then bear may get first sell signal. Should wait and watch.

>>> NIFTY - HOURLY - As given on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Two alternative discussed on Hourly chart. Lets wait and see.

>>> BANK NIFTY - DAILY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Notes on the chart.

>>> Block Buster Chart of the Week <<<

>>> LT <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> HCL Tech <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> CIPLA <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> IDFC <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> ICICI BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Chart of the Week - Bank of Baroda <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Performance <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Profit Booking or Correction ???

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After breaking 6220 nifty made a fresh high of 6252 and started falling till the bottom of the channel. Now again 50 Hr MA got support along with the channel. Lets see how it work for tomorrow as usual.

>>> ICICI Bank - As updated on 22nd OCt, 2013 <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After a lot of consolidation - Price broken out and hit the target. Patience Paid.

>>> IDFC - As updated on 22nd Oct 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Happened and Yet to <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

IDFC booked some part profit near 106. IDFC made a high of 105.80. Looking for some more upmove soon.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Support 6126 & 6104

Dear All,

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Nifty broken the pitchfork and 6160. But able to hold 50hr moving average shows that last leg may get extended as wrote yesterday. Now 6126 and 6104 should hold for any upmove. Lets See.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Support 6160

Dear All,

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Lackluster move. 6160 important support. As shown on chart, if hold the support, rally may continue since the last leg seems like extending further. Else Correction 6030 may happen for 4th sub wave. Lets wait and see.

>>> IDFC <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

IDFC - Price returned from the hurdle line today. Expect a good bounce once hurdle crosses. Yes we are holding Long in this counter.

>>> ICICI Bank <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

ICICI Bank looks like a Flag pattern with good volume, though 1024 resisted hardly for 2 times. If crosses then good upmove should push the stock on the upper side. Lets see.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Wait for a Correction

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty must correct for sub wave 4, should cool down before next upmove. So wait for correction.

>>> LT - As given on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Happened today <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

All three targets done.

>>> HCL Tech - As given on 17th Oct 2013<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Happened today <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

First Target met today.

>>> Cipla <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Cipla done second target also. Cheers!!!

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Weekly Review - 21.10.2013

Dear All,

>>>Weekly Chart Published as on 29th Sep Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As we gave on 29th Sep, mentioned about the possibilities of moving up till 6500. So lets see what happened as given below.

>>> Happened and Yet to as per weekly chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week upmove seems like moving towards the target as expected earlier. Weekly RSI break out also seems more positive. So more fire works expected before diwali.

>>> Nifty - Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price broken out of the channel and moving towards previous high as marked with red colored arrow. If breaks above the previous high then should reach the given targets. Watch out MACD also for break out which may add fuel to the upmove.

>>> Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Channel line and counts are changed from previous week as the mentioned on friday post. Now 5 wave upmove is ON and Price moving on the last leg of upmove. I expect this 5th wave should be lengthier than 3rd wave. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty had a two alternative, First one should be bearish one if unable to break above the channel. The a-b-c-d-e shall be Wave B and a fall may start for wave C on the downside if unable to break above the channel.
Second alternative shall be bullish and may move up is able to break above the channel as 5th wave move as 1-5.
A bullish break out shall help Nifty to move up fast. Interesting days to come as Banking Licence and Monetary Policy nearing.

>>> Block Buster Charts of the Week <<<

>>> HCL Tech <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

HCL Tech broken the wedge and fell down. Yes we made some good profit. Expect more fall coming and I advice sell on every rise for a good fall.

>>>> JP Associates <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Jp Associates - We had a Long position from 43.50, Part Booked at 44.50.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

First Target met and Booked more profit. More upside in next week also.

>>> LT <<<
>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

LT hit both target.

>>> FLOP OF THE MONTH - BPCL <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Initiated Short on BPCL earlier on 07th Oct as the wedge broken down. Instead the Price consolidated and moved up. See what happened as below given chart.

>>> Happened <<<
>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Loss and Exited.

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Support 6017 & 5984

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the channel and took support on 50 hr Moving Average. Now time to look at the second alternative. So I have marked the possibilities of third wave up move also. In that case 6017 and 5984 should not broken. If broken then we are on Wave C and downside is confirmed. Possible downside should be 5700 or near to it. So lets wait for the weekend trading for tomorrow.

>>> JP Associates <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long in JP Associates with some Part Profit Booked. If price stays above the Upper side channel as shown on chart, more upmove coming. Lets See.

>>> HCL Tech <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

HCL Tech today confirmed the break down with good volume. We Booked some part profit. Still more downside left.