Sunday, April 13, 2014

Weekly Review :- 15.04.2014

Dear All,

>>> Modi Vs Rajan <<<

Rajan, 51, served as chief economic adviser to the finance ministry under the Congress party-led government, which opinion polls say faces defeat in the five-week national election starting on Monday.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who since being appointed last September has enjoyed an unusually smooth ride in a country where governments often treat the RBI as a punchbag for their own policy failings.

The former International Monetary Fund chief economist is widely viewed as India's most capable technocrat, winning the respect of investors for his handling of a currency crisis that hit Asia's third-largest economy last year.

Rajan has raised the repo policy rate three times by a total of 75 basis points to 8 percent.

BJP treasurer Piyush Goyal has attacked Rajan over a series of interest rate hikes intended to curb inflation, now running at double the RBI's longer-term 4 percent target, at a time when economic growth has fallen to its slowest in a decade.

Subramanian Swami, a BJP ideologue and former cabinet minister with close ties to a Hindu grassroots movement that has shaped Modi's thinking, puts it more bluntly: "We can make it worthwhile for him to leave," Swami told Reuters.

"Governor Rajan is only aggravating the problems and making them worse by increasing interest rates," Goyal, a leading strategist and fundraiser for the nationalist opposition party, told the Economic Times.

Under the RBI Act of 1934, Rajan serves at the pleasure of the government: "The central government may remove from office the Governor, a Deputy Governor or any other Director," it says.

While no RBI governor has been sacked in the central bank's 80-year history, two have quit before completing their terms - most recently Sir Benegal Rama Rau, who resigned in 1957 due to differences with the finance minister.

Arun Jaitley, a BJP leader tipped to assume either the finance or home affairs portfolio in the next government, has meanwhile avoided confrontation. Asked about Rajan in a TV interview last month, Jaitley said: "If someone is doing good job, he will certainly continue."

"It will be a big loss of face for the country and would create a negative perception among foreign investors if the BJP removes the governor immediately after forming the government," said A. Prasanna, an economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd in Mumbai.

Brushing aside as "speculation" that he has differences with the leaders of BJP, widely expected to form the next government, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said they are "media invention". "On differences with the new government, I haven't had any discussion with the new government. I think it's all press invented difference. I think it should be seen as speculation rather than any actual differences," he said while commenting on reported differences with the BJP leaders.

>>> Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

Hope one can understand the above chart clearly. If this is right, then every one should be careful hereafter - as there may a serious fall in coming days.

Since nothing to do with monthly chart, lets go to hourly chart.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

As per this hourly chart, If i'm right, then friday's fall should a corrective downside for a last leg of upmove. The rise can move up till 6835 or even 6865 to complete its 5th wave upmove.

Provided if breaks 6733-6730 support as shown on chart, then the upmove get truncated to resume the fall.

>>> Bank Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

Since the above chart on bank nifty - published for several weeks as its facing the resistance, I think no need to explain as the picture speaks more about it.

>>> Performance <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<