Saturday, January 19, 2013

Weekly Review - 21.01.2013

Dear All,

Last Week Market moved up on News flows like GAAR and Positive Inflation data.

Now Mr.PC is busy in bringing down fiscal deficit, if he takes aggressive steps can spike inflation which may prevent RBI from cutting rates. Deregulation of diesel price is not a good news for Inflation.

Challenges ahead for Mr.PC is reforms in mining policies related to land acquisition and steps to bring down inflation shall going to be more difficult in coming days.

Although FM had assured India Inc that "The government will take all steps to contain fiscal deficit and pursue reforms to deal with economic challenges" and pointed out that " he had a plan to restrict the fiscal deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by 2016-17".

Pre-Election Year :-

Market usually worries in Pre-Election Year as there can be a Vote Bank Budget, as Last time Mr. PC did the following in 2008 before election.

In 2008, a year before general elections, Chidambaram announced a scheme to waive farm loans, which ended up touching 36.8 million farmers and cost the government Rs 65,000 crore.

He also accepted the recommendations of the Sixth Pay Commission for government employees, costing the government Rs 47,500 crore, including Rs 27,000 crore as arrears from 2006.

Meanwhile at present Govt not ready to wait till the budget as Government has just hiked Railway passenger freight after a period of 10 yrs and also cut the subsidy for diesel to deregulated.

Also Started 'Direct Cash Transfer' Scheme to replace the current delivery
mechanism of social schemes including subsidised food grains, kerosene and fertilisers. Of the total 34 welfare schemes, ones included under the first phase are Janani Suraksha Yojana, MGNREGS, District welfare schemes, Rural Development Schemes and student scholarships and stipends. Fertilizer, LPG, Kerosene and food have been kept out in the initial phase.

Its very hard to find out the result of Direct cash transfer scheme at this stage as it was aimed at vote bank in forth coming election.

But Govt should reduce its subsidy bill from 2.5% of GDP to 1.5% of GDP very soon to drive growth for India Inc.

Ok lets go to Technicals..

>>>NIFTY - DAILY <<<

>Click Chart to see on full screen<

>Click Chart to see on full screen<


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Over all Picture shows On Daily as well as Hourly - a Bearish Scenario.

Only Daily Chart a Evening Star Near the Channel top seems to be a Cautious Signal.

Hourly Chart EW Count Suggest 2 Possible Alternatives:-

1) Friday’s Top 6083 shall be assued as end of 5th wave, if so,should break below 6024 and 6008 or the channel line supportto fall further.

2) or 5th wave making an extesntion as shown in green color,as 6083 is sw(i) and should find support near 6024 or 6008 for (ii)to bounce back for next upmove.


>Click Chart to see on full screen<

Bank Nifty give above is Hourly Chart - Seems like 4th wave abcde consolidation of final leg of Upmove. Count is valid only if holds above 12523 as shown on chart with Red Arrow mark.

If this count is not wront, one more bounce not ruled out.


>Click Chart to see on full screen<

SBI seems to have given a break out earlier and a volatile trade between the breakout line raises question about Break out.
As bank nifty also in the last leg of upmove, will SBI IHS pattern break out changes the entire outlook ????


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