Saturday, February 28, 2015

Weekly Review - 02.03.2015

Dear All,


Budget 2015: 12 reform themes lift Jaitley's 2nd budget out of the ordinary

First, the budget has cleverly balanced the need to push up public investment without straying from the road to fiscal consolidation. The 2012 roadmap drawn up by Jaitley’s predecessor called for a reduction of the fiscal deficit to 3 percent by 2016-17. Jaitley has promised to achieve this one year later. He has used a part of this fiscal leeway to increase investments in infrastructure. In 2015-16, the net increase in public investment is said to be Rs 1,25,000 crore, including Rs 70,000 crore in capital outlays. This will boost growth when the money is spent over the year.

Second, the budget completely rebalances centre-state fiscal power in favour of the states, in line with the report of the 14th Finance Commission. The commission had recommended the transfer of 42 percent of gross central tax receipts to states, but the real devolution is much larger – Rs 1,82,000 crore more in 2015-16 compared to the year before. The finance minister said: “The devolution to the states would be of the order of Rs 5.24 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against the devolution of Rs 3.38 lakh crore as per the revised estimates of 2014-15." Another Rs 3.04 lakh crore would be transferred by way of grants and plan transfers. Thus, states will spend about 62 percent of the total tax receipts of the country. This rebalancing of fiscal resources means that states, which have the larger burden of implementation responsibilities, will now have the money to do so. The centre’s fiscal role will shrink relatively.

Third, this budget shifts more of the tax revenue burden to indirect taxes and away from direct taxes. Left economists may rant about this, saying the budget will favour the rich and businesses, but the key to higher direct tax compliance is more reasonable rates. Moreover, companies have the option of not investing in India if they find tax rates lower elsewhere. Thus, Jaitley has offered Rs 8,315 crore of direct tax concessions, and raised Rs 23,383 crore from indirect taxes, especially excise and service taxes. The service tax rate is up to 14 percent from 12.36 percent now and the exemptions reduced. Basic excise duty is up from 12 percent to 12.5 percent. The clean energy cess on coal is up from Rs 100 to Rs 200 a tonne. The middle class gets very small direct tax benefits, including some relief in medical reimbursements and higher exemptions on travel allowance (Rs 1,600 per month). Clearly, the FM did not have much money to spread around.

Fourth, the budget also balances promise and delivery – its promise now, deliver later. The promise to cut corporate tax rates to 25 percent (as well as the withdrawal of business exemptions) will happen in 2016-17, while the surcharge on corporate and individual taxes is up this year itself by 2 percent. So gross corporate taxes will actually go up in 2015-16. The cess on income tax – education and higher education – will go, but only in 2016-17. Wealth tax goes in 2015-16, but this is being compensated by the surcharge of people with incomes above Rs 1 crore.

Fifth, the emphasis on additional infrastructure investment is clear. Between the centre and public sector companies, investment in infrastructure is expected to go up by Rs 70,000 crore. Coming on top of the 52 percent increase in the railway plan, this is a significant boost. Moreover, a new National Investment and Infrastructure Fund will get Rs 20,000 crore annually to support infrastructure projects. And road, rail and irrigation projects will be allowed to raise money from tax-free bonds.

Sixth, given the slow pace of job creation, the government is betting on entrepreneurship to make up the deficit. Apart from easing rules for business, new funds are being set up to promote entrepreneurship and fund micro and small enterprises. As the FM said, “there are some 5.77 crore small business units, mostly individual proprietorship, which run small manufacturing, trading or service businesses. Some 62 percent of these are owned by SC/ST/OBC. These bottom-of-the-pyramid, hard-working entrepreneurs find it difficult, if not impossible, to access formal systems of credit. I, therefore, propose to create a Micro Units Development Refinance Agency (MUDRA) Bank, with a corpus of Rs 20,000 crore, and a credit guarantee corpus of Rs 3,000 crore.” Another fund will promote start-ups in the technology space with Rs 1,000 crore.

Seventh, the finance minister is shifting the balance of regulatory power away from the RBI and towards Sebi, in which the Forward markets Commission will be merged. The centre will set up its own debt management agency, which means the RBI’s only job will be the making of monetary policy and bank supervision. Even in the making of monetary policy, a new legislation will shift the power to set interest rates from the RBI Governor to a Monetary Policy Committee, which the Governor will chair, but where he will have only one vote.

Eighth, the FM has also proposed to create a new bankruptcy law that will ensure quick solutions to companies that go belly up. The bankruptcy code, possibly on the lines of America’s Chapter 11, will replace the Sick Industrial Companies Act (SICA) and the Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction. The SICA law and the institution created under it have not delivered either the revival of sick units or ensure quick euthanasia for the terminally ill.

Ninth, another theme in the budget is giving workers choice – both in choosing their retirement savings vehicles, and in health/recuperation benefits. Currently, all employees have no choice but to join the Employees State Insurance Scheme (ESIS) or the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), both of which perform poorly. In future, employees will have the choice of choosing a separate health insurance plan instead of the ESIS, and also opt out of the EPFO in favour of the National Pension Scheme (NPS). As the FM noted, “both EPFO and ESIS have hostages, rather than clients.” To enable employees to invest in their own retirement corpus, the FM has also created a separate Rs 50,000 deduction for contributions to pension funds like the NPS.

Tenth, the biggest blow the budget delivers is to black money. The penalties for black money are not only being enhanced, but an attempt is being made to strike at the very root of domestic black money by targeting big ticket cash transactions for monitoring and providing incentives for the use of debit and credit cards. Apart from big jail terms for concealment of income and assets abroad, which includes similar penalties for abettors to such concealment, benami properties will also be targeted. The Finance Bill will prohibit the payment of more than Rs 20,000 as advance for buying property, and PAN numbers will have to be given for all purchases above Rs 1 lakh.

Eleventh, the reform focus is being shifted from the rich to the poor. In the past, reform had come to mean doing things for business or the middle class; the NDA is taking small initiatives begun by the UPA to the next level. The Jan Dhan Yojana, the Aadhaar ID and mobile banking will now be increasingly used for the transfer of subsidies to the poor, with LPG being the launchpad and almost more than half the consumer base. The FM said that if GST will put in place a state-of-the-art indirect tax system by 1 April 2016, the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile) “will allow us to transfer benefits in a leakage-proof, well-targeted and cashless manner.” He added: “We need to cut subsidy leakages, not subsidies themselves. We are committed to the process of rationalizing subsidies based on this approach.”

Twelfth, the biggest promise the FM has committed himself to is on containing inflation. He said: “We have concluded a Monetary Policy Framework Agreement with the RBI, as I had promised in my Budget Speech for 2014-15. This framework clearly states the objective of keeping inflation below 6 percent.” What this means is that if inflation surges above 6 percent, or threatens to, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will act to bring inflation down even if Jaitley wants interest rates lower. Once the MPC gets this mandate, the finance minister is effectively curtailing his own freedom of fiscal action, for the MPC will act to bring inflation down if fiscal policy is heading in the other direction.

All in all, Jaitley’s budget breaks new ground. It is a commendable effort in the context of his constraints. The market has not reason to mope in gloom. This budget does nothing to ruin the party. It sets the tone for future parties, especially if growth recovers.

>>> Nifty Weekly As Posted on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

wrote last week, a possible mirror like out look possible ??

>>> Nifty Weekly - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As Expected, like previous such upmove as shown on chart followed by a Doji, this week also Price move up firmly and confirmed the bull's Strength. Weekly Hanging Man - reveals more strength for bulls.

>>> Nifty Daily - As Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last weekly on Daily Chart - The Target is near to 9578.

>>> Nifty Daily - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last weekly on Daily Chart - The Target is near to 9578. This weeka a Dragon Fly Doji and a RSI break Out confirms the Bull Strength.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we are Long on Nifty since 8530. As per above chart - 9050 looks possible for our final Target.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly - As Posted last weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last weekly wrote on Bank Nifty hourly chart - a possible B wave may get completed soon for next Wave C Upmove. See what happened

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Almost a 700 Point Profit booked on Budget Day.

>>> Stocks - Chart of the Week <<<

>>> GRASIM <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Almost a 45000 Gain from the GRASIM Short Call.

>>> TATAMOTORS <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Tata Motors Short gave Rs.9000 on first Target.

>>> DRREDDY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Profit at 3200, Profit made Rs.27500.

>>> SAIL <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are long since 68. Price a made a High of 72 on Friday. Break out the Falling wedge may trigger a rally.

>>> PERFORMANCE for the month end of Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

For Details of Service - Send email to niftyforall@yahoo.com

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Achche Din - Budget - 2015

Dear All,


High volatile on Index - The Nifty ended below psychological 8,700-mark on the last day of February series expiry as traders booked profits ahead of the annual Budget.

The February derivative contracts which expired today recorded the highest turnover in the F&O segment at Rs 5.81 lakh crore. "On provisional basis have seen Rollover of 78% in Nifty futures compare 76.52% of Total rollover of Jan series. Rollovers are better than than past six month average.

Meanwhile, global rating agency Standard & Poor's increased India's growth forecasts going forward to reflect a recent change in how gross domestic product is calculated by the government, and said the economy should be a "bright spot" in Asia.

Standard & Poor's increased its GDP growth forecast for India to 7.9% from 6.2% for the financial year 2015-16, on the back of higher investments and subdued oil prices.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Counts are little changed. Support @ 8665.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Support @ 18475.

>>> Grasim - As Posted on 12th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
As posted earlier also, We have re-entered Short on Grasim @ 3860 on 12th Feb, 2015. See what happened.

>>> Grasim - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Book Full Profit below 3600. Cheers!!!

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Copper - Target 365 Done.

Dear All,

>>> Copper - As Posted on 06th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 06th Feb to continue to hold Long on Copper for a Target of 365-368. See what happened ?

>>> Copper - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

365 Done. A Fresh Break out Seen on RSI. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Support 8750,8735 & 8702

Dear All,

>>> Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

UPcoming Railway Budget and Union Budget along with FnO Expiry - Making Nifty to tussle with volatile. Early Morning Nifty able to cross easily above 8800, later trade drift below 50 hma and tested 8751.65. Price need to cross the trend line as shown on chart and mostly importantly 50hma should be crossed.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty falling as a wedge as a-b-c-d-e. 18725 & 18650 must Support. Break below may test 18506. Break above 18950 or 19000 - break above the wedge may trigger short covering.

>>> Dr.Reddy - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted Yesterday that we have shorted @ 3400. See what happened.

>>> Dr.Reddy - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Partial Profit booked @ 3300 with Rs. 12500. More fall likely. Sell on Every rise. Cheers!!!

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Support @ 8735 & Resistance 8800

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Support 8735 and 100 Hma looks important for bull to survive. Resistance 8800.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty in need of a break out.

>>> TATAMOTORS - Posted on 19th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 19th Feb to Sell Tata Motors. See what happened today ?

>>> TATAMOTORS - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Profit Booked at 865 with a Profit of Rs.9000/-

>>> DR.Reddy <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


We Shorted @ 3400. Cheers!!!

Monday, February 23, 2015

Support @ 8735 & 8702

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly - Posted on Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on Weekly Review 8884 acts a resistance. See what happened.

>>> Nifty - Happened and yet to <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After breaking 50hma price fell down sharply and touched 100hma. Now 50% retrace and 100 hma should support. Break below 8735 may test 8705 also.

>>> Grasim - Posted on 12th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have Re-Entered Short on Grasim @ 3860. See what happened.

>>> Grasim - Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So far Grasim has given Rs.45000 to us in this month alone. Cheers!!!

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Weekly Review - 23.02.2015

Dear All,


Indian bourses will remain open for trading on the Union Budget day on February 28, a Saturday. The Securities and Exchange Board of India on Friday asked stock exchanges to allow trading as per normal trading hours on the day when finance minister Arun Jaitley will present the Budget of the Narendra Modi-led government. The capital market regulator had earlier decided against allowing trading on the day, but brokers had been urging the market watchdog and the finance ministry to keep the markets Open.

Meanwhile a major crackdown on alleged leak of classified documents from petroleum ministry, capital markets watchdog Sebi today warned it will take stern action if such stolen information was being used in the markets.

There have been reports that these leaked documents could also have been used for trading in the stock markets, although there are no official words on this.

"I am hearing it for the first time from you people that the stolen information was allegedly used for trading in the market. We have an integrated surveillance department. If there is an iota of truth in that, my people would already be on working on that," Sinha said.


On Thursday, the oil ministry was rocked by a scandal involving the leakage of official documents by government employees and other officials.

The entire pack of oil & gas sector stocks witnessed a decline on the back of document-leak scandal. Indian Oil was down 2.7 per cent, ONGC fell 0.7 per cent, and Castrol India was down 0.9 per cent.

"The leaking of the documents acted as a trigger for investors who were looking to book profits in the sector. Over the past several months, many of the oil & gas stocks had risen quite significantly and stocks had become expensive," said Dipen Shah, head of private client group research at Kotak Securities.

"Some amount of heavy-selling was seen in index derivatives towards the end of the day. This could be a part of the pre-Budget hedging by traders and investors," said Daljeet Singh Kohli, head of research at IndiaNivesh Securities.

"The markets had been rising continuously for the past seven sessions. So some amount of profit-booking was expected. The selling was not extraordinary because at no point did the index fall by more than one per cent," said Bhamre, who heads the derivatives analysis at Angel Broking.

Analysts said the mood going into the Budget was optimistic and there was very little cause for nervousness. "People have high expectations from the Budget, but that does not mean people are nervous and will look to pare positions aggressively. There could be some risk-aversion at higher levels as the Budget draws closer. But overall, the sentiment remains positive," said Shah


BRUSSELS—The eurozone approved a four-month extension on Greece’s bailout Friday, provided Athens submits by Monday details on the reform and budgetary measures it plans to take, Austria’s finance minister Hans Jörg Schelling said.

The four-month extension falls short of the six months Greece had requested Thursday and strengthens the hand of the country’s creditors in negotiations for a follow-up deal.

Greece has to submit a list of proposed measures by Monday, which will then assessed by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund by April, Schelling said.

Finance ministers will hold conference call Tuesday night to discuss the Greek list of measures.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As shown on above weekly chart bulls ignored a Doji last time, lets hope this may be repeated again.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes 9578 may be the final Target for bulls. We are long since 8530 and continue to hold the long until there is a meaningful sell trigger on the chart.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ofcourse the golden cross over happened in favour of bulls, 78.6% Resistance must be crossed and closed above should help the bulls for a healthy upmove. So lets wait for it.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Long in Bank Nifty - Looking for a good Break Out. Lets Wait and See.

>>> Stocks of the Week <<<

>>> BIOCON - As Posted on 13th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted last week and wrote to Buy Biocon on every dips for a good upmove. See what happened.

>>> BIOCON - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We had a Part Booking of Rs.10K. Price made a high of 453.8 near to our first Target 458. More rally on card. Keep buying on dips.

>>> Grasim - As Posted on 12th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote Last week - We have re-entered Short on Grasim @ 3860. See what Happened.

>>> Grasim - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price almost made a low of 3750 with a Profit of Rs.13750/-. Expect more fall in coming days.

>>> Just Dial - As Posted on 19th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Stay Long on Just Dial, Expect a good move above the Trend line.

>>> TATAMOTORS - As Posted on 19th Feb, 2015 <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have made a Part profit of Rs.5000, looking for more fall.

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

>>> click the image to see on full screen <<<

Send email to niftyforall@yahoo.com.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Resistance @ 8913-8915. Support @ 8766 & 8735

Dear All,

>>> NIFTY - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Looks like an small expanding triangle. If 8913-15 Can't Cross, may test 8766 and 8735 on the downside.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier on the Day - Have alerted our Clients about the possibilities of testing 18876, Exactly test 18876 as given. Later a Buy call was given to our clients, as posted on chart. Buy given near 18990-19000. Price Made a High of 19260 today itself.

If the Resistance 100 Hour Moving Average crosses as shown above, then Expect a good Rally. We had our Longs, will wait till our Targets get achieved.

>>> TATA MOTORS <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We shorted near 583 and had a Part Booking of Rs.5000. Above chart shows - the corrective upmove ended after filling the gap. Now if the price breaks the channel as shown on chart, then expect a free fall.

>>> Just Dial - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yesterday we have posted the above chart on Just Dial, Mentioned to Buy. See what happened today.

>>> Just Dial - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As Expected today Just Dial Moved UP even in the negative market, We are holding our Long, Waiting for a good upmove. If the Trend line breaks out - as shown on chart, Expect a good rally. Cheers!!!