Saturday, January 18, 2014

Weekly Review 20.01.2014

Dear All,

Markets surged 1.5% in the volatile week ended January 17 led by rate sensitive shares after the sharp decline in December WPI raised hopes that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain status quo on key policy rates. However, the broader markets witnessed profit taking after gains in the previous weeks underperforming the benchmark indices.

Most of the gains were seen in earlier part of the week supported by global cues after weaker-than-expected US jobs data increased the probability that the US Fed may not increase the quantum of stimulus cuts.

The wholesale inflation declined to a five-month low in December on lower vegetable prices. WPI-based inflation stood at 6.16% from 7.52% a month ago, as per the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This is the first time since May that headline inflation has declined from the previous month. In November, the WPI inflation was at a 14-month high

Key Events to Watch Next Week :-

HDFC, L&T, Cairn India, Asian Paints and UltraTech Cement will be some of the major companies announcing their third quarter earnings.

FII investment trends will also be in focus as they have remained net buyers of nearly Rs 1,600 crore in January so far.

The movement of the rupee against the US dollar will also be on the radar of market participants.

Caution is also likely to prevail ahead of the RBI's policy review on Jan. 28.

Metal shares are set to take their cue from China's Q4 GDP on Monday.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After hitting 6346 high on 16th Jan - Nifty fell down to hit a low of 6246 on 17th Jan 2014. As marked on chart it seems like wave 2 completed. The fall should be fast only if breaks below 6140-50. As said last week, I still advice more caution on Nifty - as I feel that this may be a beginning of a big or deep correction.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As said above if 6140-6150 holds then bounce back possible as there is an bullish alternative like a-b-c-d-e pattern. So important to watch the level.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty shows a clear reversal from the pitchfork lower channel - Since RBI policy on 28th Jan, its more important to watch banking sector. If unable to cross the lower channel - fall may continue.

>>> Ultracemco - As Updated on 15th Jan - 2013 <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ultracemco gave on 15th Jan - see what happened.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes We booked at 1750.

>> Performance <<<
>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<