Thursday, August 30, 2012

Head & Shoulder - Nifty ???

Dear All,

As Said Yesterday Nifty Bounced today - till 5340 - Lets see What I said..


Happened today :-


Cheers!!!

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Nifty below 5290 - ????

Dear All,


Nifty breached the second support 5290 also. So whats Interesting here is Will it fall further or a relief like rally possible???

Yes, Possibly as given on chart. If tomorrow 5290 held then a bounce upto 5350 which can be like a Head & Shoulder like formation - which i feel more bearish in coming days. Else 5240 is the Next Support - as (iii) wave is going to be extension in nature, going to be more complicated and chappy, which may again kill many Nifty Option traders in Next Series also.

It seems like FII's also started their selling in Derivative segment - tomorrow's expiry is going to be very Interesting.

>>>> FOLLOW UP <<<< >>> CHAMBAL FERTILIZER <<<


Above Chart was given on 04th of August on Weekly Stock - wrote that it can reach 63-64 level soon.


Target 63 Achieved Today. Lot size is 4000


>>> HAVELLS <<<




Havells made a Head & Shoulder Break down - Our Clients are Holding Havells Positional trade. Lets see

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Nifty below 5350.

Dear All,
>>> NIFTY <<<


>Click the Chart to see on full screen<


After breaking the trend line - Nifty moving with Extension waves and Lot of choppy indicates the Indecision and I Hope only the Support and Resistance can guide us. As Nifty has broken the Important support 5350, next level is 5290. Lets See.

>>> BANK NIFTY <<<



>Click the Chart to see on full screen<


Bank Nifty seems like a Symmetrical Triangle Break down - Signals a Bearish and Heavy Sell off is Possible. I advice extreme Caution in Bank stocks - in Days to come. Bank Nifty have a Support at 9890 & 9678 - and I hope these Support may be tested in coming days.

>>>APOLLO TYRE <<<


>Click the Chart to see on full screen<


We had a Sell call in Apollo Tyres - as Shown on Chart - a Shooting Star or an Inverted Hammer on the top of the Chart shows that - Stock has been topped out and ready for a Fall. Break down below the Raising Wedge is an another Important Bear Phase of the Stock. Lets get ready to enjoy the Fall.

Cheers

Monday, August 27, 2012

Nifty at 5350 !!!

Dear All,

On Political front :-




Finance minister P Chidambaram on Friday got a huge relief from the Supreme Court as it dismissed Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy’s plea for a probe into his role in the 2G spectrum scam.

So Now its Coal Scam - to have New Twist and Turn inside and Out side Parliment :-


BJP Continued to disturb Parliament from its normal proceedings and demanding PM's Resignation and says no more discussion in this regard.

Rejecting the report of CAG on allocation of coal blocks during 2004-09 period, Manmohan Singh said that any allegations of impropriety were without basis and unsupported by facts.


BJP rejects PM's defence over coal scam, says money from allocation of blocks went to Congress party


PM should take moral responsibility of coal allocation scam and resign: BJP

So finally it seems Govt may bring confidence motion next week.

>>> NIFTY <<<



> Click the Chart to see in Full Screen << Nifty took support at 5350. Break below should fall upto 5290 as shown on chart. Confusion in Parliament + Nifty trend line break down lead to Bears Strength. Bulls unable to capitalize the Upmove above 5400 and if breaks and close below 5350 or 5290 then its a signal from bear that some thing worst is going to happen soon. Get ready for it.
>> Follow - Up - IDFC <<



On 17th August in our Weekly Review - IDFC was the Weekly Chart - told it may fall 137 & 132. Even though I have Exited IDFC Short cost to cost - due to its long consolidation with out Loss. Please verify the Performance sheet.

But today IDFC fell down and achieved the First Target as per my expectation - and attached chart below


Cheers!!!

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Weekly Review - 25.08.2012

20 GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADERS

1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.

2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.

3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool.

4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.

5. Don't buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.

6. Don't chase momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to the door, you're in big trouble.

7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.

8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.

9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with the money flow.

10. If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts.

11. Sell the second high, buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks, the first test of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the break on the third or fourth try.

12. The trend is your friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't expect anyone to change the channel.

13. Avoid the open. They see YOU coming sucker

14. 1-2-3-Drop-Up. Look for downtrends to reverse after a top, two lower highs and a double bottom.

15. Bulls live above the 200 day, bears live below. Sellers eat up rallies below this key moving average line and buyers to come to the rescue above it.

16. Price has memory. What did price do the last time it hit a certain level? Chances are it will do it again.

17. Big volume kills moves. Climax blow-offs take both buyers and sellers out of the market and lead to sideways action.

18. Trends never turn on a dime. Reversals build slowly. The first sharp dip always finds buyers and the first sharp rise always finds sellers.

19. Bottoms take longer to form than tops. Fear acts more quickly than greed and causes stocks to drop from their own weight.

20. Beat the crowd in and out the door. You have to take their money before they take yours, period.

Are You an Emotional Trade :-

A Picture Better than 1000 Words as given below



Greed and Fear = Emotions

The fear factor will increase after every losing trade and the greed factor pops up after winners.

Very few traders are content with the results of every trade, they always think they could have won more on winners and reduced the amount on losers.

Fear and greed, will play extraordinary tricks with your emotions but only through self control and discipline will you be able to control them.

More Greed will lead to Uncontrolled Limits means ...


>>> NIFTY - DAILY CHART <<<


> Click the chart to see in full screen < I think no need to describe the attached Daily Chart - Retraced Exactly 78.6% at 5446. An IHS pattern Break out followed by a break down on trend line doubts the IHS break out - Possible failure may advantage to bears soon if Price comes below the Break out Line. Important Support at 5350 & 5288. Resistance at 5446.
>>> NIFTY - INTRADAY CHART <<<



>Click the chart to see in full screen<


Intraday Chart clearly shows the Trend line break down and shows how important 5377 is and possibility of filling gap mentioned on chart.

>>> IFCI <<<



>click the chart to see in full screen <


One should remember that I have given IFCI on weekly Chart few weeks before and cautioned about H&S on Chart. So friday triggered the Selloff and fell nearly 16% in a Single day. Now as per H&S IFCI should reach for a Target of 23-24 very soon.

>> PERFORMANCE <<


>>click the above picture to see in full screen <<

Above performance is upto 24th Aug-2012. Those who wish to Join with me - can ask me the details on my email id krish_venkatesh@yahoo.com.

Above performance is based on only Futures - Levels are provided on Cash basis. Both Entry and Exit will be advised.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

One More Day with Nifty

Dear All,

Today also NDA and its allies stalled the Parliament, demanding PM's Resignation of Col-gate Report from CAG. A meeting called by Lok sabha speaker Meera Kumar was also boycotted by NDA / BSP and SP, Soon Mr. Ansari my Convene another meeting to end the dead lock. Third day also wasted in Parliament with out any Business as the Whole India Inc is looking for some Bills & Policies to get shaped in this Session atleast to boost the slowing Economy. Many Bills Including FDI in retail which the whole FII's where waiting for it.

At the same time UPA ally Trinamool Congress today strongly opposed allowing FDI in key sectors like retail, insurance and aviation arguing that it would be harmful for the people of the country.

All PSU Banks normal works get halted due to Strike called by All India Bank Employees' Association (AIBEA) due to reforms in the sector and outsourcing of non-core services to private sector.

When economy is facing a crucial Stage or Trouble all these above News are really dis-tubing in nature.

Going abroad - Federal Reserve sent its strongest signal that it is preparing new steps to bolster the economic recovery, saying measures would be needed fairly soon unless growth substantially and convincingly picks up. It shows that QE3 known for Bond Buying may once again in their Options.

In China PMI index for August fell to a nine-month low of 47.8 on a 100-point scale, dropping from July’s final print of 49.3.

Meanwhile Nifty closed in Green with 5.9 Point Plus. Shares Like Jet Airways, Spice Jet and KFA down nearly 5% after a Negative Statement from Mamthaji.

>>> NIFTY <<<



>>> Click the Chart to see in full Screen <<<



As Nifty made a high of 5448 - unable to hold 5436 as i have mentioned it as a resistance level, closed at 5418 managed to stay inside the channel. MACD is signalling an alert as its not moving up with Price. So need confirmation on either side. At this stage balls may favour Bears, but better to stay in "NO TRADE ZONE" unless a break out or break down comes out of the market. Lets see.

>>> IDFC <<<




>>> Click the Chart to see in full Screen <<<

I have posed IDFC in Weekly Review. Now IDFC consolidate between 140-146 as it competed the last leg of Wave C. Today gave a Break down form the channel with Negative Divergence shows that Stock ready to slide any time - even tomorrow possibly. A Gap left on 137 should be the first Target. Lets See.


Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Nifty again closed above 5386!!!

Dear All,

Nifty able to Hold and close above 5400, Neglected all Negative European Cues. Nifty moved in between 30 Points for the entire day - followed by Telecom Stock and Sugar stocks worst hit. Bharti Airtel breaks the Important Low of 250 and 230 is the Next Support. Rcom took support at 54 and 53.40 is the Previous Low to watch, if broken then may fall to 47 and 42 sooner or later.


Coming back to Nifty - One Blog Reader asked in Yahoo messenger - Your Level 5386 crossed Yesterday and today also it seems Nifty unlikely to give up 5400 - So whats the Target on the Upper side. It seems quite Interesting that every one ask these same question - If one Patter or Level or count failed - Should I delete the current one and Jump and take Long Position. Or should I say - If I had a Short Position in Nifty - If Stop Loss hit and Should I Jump and take Long Position ???? Certainly Not.

Here comes the same view - Almost all the Indicators are Negative - Still Nifty Moving slightly Up or Holding with out Falling - But stocks are getting hammered every day - means - You should wait and watch - or Mark it as "NO TRADE ZONE" or Stick with your previous view that was taken already - with renewed Stop Loss -

Patience is the Best Medicine You need at this Point of Time. Wait for the exact Opportunity and trigger your next trade.

Lets wait and Watch - Cheers!!!

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Nifty above 5386 ?




>> click the chart to see it on full screen <<

Nifty Moved and closed above 5386 as this is the level I was mentioning earlier in this blog several times. It seems like the trend is getting reverse in favour of Bulls.

At the same time - when the count says that the 5th wave of Last C leg is getting completed as marked on chart. As the upmove was like ABC - C almost retraced 127% of wave A at 5437 and 5th Leg of C wave has retraced upto 61.8% of entire three wave at 5428 as marked on chart as Resistance.

Since the MACD, RSI and most of the Other Indicators signalling a Negative outlook - I suspect these Pattern wise Break out may be a False one unless Nifty can able to close above 5386 for 1-2 days.

Lets wait for more clarity, as I assume that this is a No Trade or No Deciding Zone. Cheers!!!

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Weekly Review - 20.08.2012

Dear All,

In Spite of Many Negative News & Scams Market Holding Up due to ..???

> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have infused a net amount of $1.02 billion (about Rs 5,692 crore) in August so far, taking the total for this year to $11.4 billion (Rs 57,958 crore) in Indian equities, according to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

> Even though Corporate profit margins have fallen for five quarters, dropping below 5 per cent in April-June 2012, interests costs have ballooned, market moving up steadily is surprising as what FII's know something that we don’t, or share prices are completely out of line with fundamental projections.

> Much more bad news have lined up like Weak Mansoon - followed by rise in NPA for the Banks and climbing debt levels. So RBI kept saying many times - nothing in their hand as far as Govt reduce its expenditure and stop supply side which was keeping the Inflation at the highest level.

> In Practical Growth can't be Possible with out a Rate Cut - as Liquidity is a Major concern for the time being. But RBI wont Cut Rates as Inflation is a Burning Coal.

> On fiscal side Current Account Deficit Kept warming up and No concrete measure so far, may put the risk on the highest ever. Most of the Expert warned about this as worrisome.

> In Independence Day Speech PM hoped that in 2012/13 we would do better than 6.5% on 2011/12. Don't forget what PMEAC (Prime Minister Economic Advisory Council) said on July 2011 that expected the Growth to be around 8.2% in 2011/12. In reality what happend is know to every one as we got 6.5%. In February 212 another report submitted by PMEAC reiterated that the growth should be around 7.5 to 8%. No one other than PMEAC or PM believed these bluffing statement.

> So Why Market is Holding - If only because of FII's continuous flow of Money on their expectation from Policy Makers may act soon - if not what may happen ???. If they change their stance from present level from 'Buy' to 'Sell' then what may happy ? If any more Bad News from Europe - US or any other Major part of the world may trigger a Big Sell Off - So what may happy to Our Index ???

>>> NIFTY <<<

Weekly Chart :-


>Click the chart to see in full screen>

Above Weekly Nifty Chart seems like a Bearish Symmetrical Triangle - If so then the upper Channel should give a Stiff resistance along with 100 week Moving Average.

Intraday Chart:-


>Click the chart to see in full screen>

Above 30 Min Chart shows the raising Channel has been Broken and trying to form a H&S like Pattern - Must wait for a clear Picture yet to come.

Stock Pick for this Week :- IDFC


>Click the chart to see in full screen>

IDFC seems like Negative as it makes a Double Top & Re-tested the Trend Line broken Earlier. We had a Sell call in it and Hope will Fall in coming days.

Cheers!!!

Friday, August 17, 2012

Peformance - Till Middle of August - 2012

Dear All,

First Time I have made a Performance Sheet and Publishing Openly in my Blog.

As per this Performance Sheet - One should be assumed to be Holding a Maximum of 2-3 Position at a time.

Capital Required must be 2 to 3 Lakhs.

Minimum 2 to 3 Target will be given and if the First Target achieved, One should get ready to Book Profit. Risk takers may hold with a SL of Cost to Cost + Brokerage for the Next Target.


>>> Click the above Sheet to see in Full Screen <<<


I invite Queries / Suggestion and Advice form the Reader on the comment column below.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Nifty - Where is my Independance ?

Dear All,

India Crossed 66th Independance Day Celebration. So do we got the real Independance ????

Lets have a Look ...









>>> NIFTY <<<


>Click the Chart to See it on Full Screen<


I think no more explanation needed today, as we have discussed more about it. Lets wait for a Break down at least to happen tomorrow.

>>> BANK NIFTY <<<


>Click the Chart to See it on Full Screen<

Bank Nifty - so far first deciding the trend - as shown on chart - if breaks above the green colored Line - a possible IHS break out and rally not ruled out. Else if breaks below the down line - fall for wave C for a Target of 9900.

Lets See!!!

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Is this Real Inflation ??


Thanks to July Inflation data??? which was lower than expected 6.87 and hope raised from RBI that it may cut Interest Rate. Overall, food inflation declined to 10.06% in July, from 10.81% in June which added more hopes from RBI and Helped Nifty to Rally 32 Points.
>>>NIFTY<<<



Lot has been discussed about Nifty earlier - Sill can't able to close above 5386. The Give Chart shows a Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern - a Close above 5386 for a Day or two may give effect, or else a fall as I was writing for last 10 days can't be avoided.

Any one new to this blog may refer earlier post for more clarity.

>>>> Adani Ent <<<<



Adani Enterprises - A Buy call given to Members @ 186 which Rallied upto 192.7 and Expecting a More rally in coming days too. One can Buy for short Term Rally which is a Safe Buy from current Levels for an Upmove upto 20-25% return in Short term.
>>> R-Com<<<



I'm Bearish on Rcom for quite some days - Gave a Sell call below 55.5 - after it touched 53.75 - Gave a Hand Some return as the lot size was 4000. Approx Rs.7,000. Even Now Stock looking very Bearish as I feel that a 3rd down wave is going on.

India's Number two Mobile Operator by Subscriber Based Company is Unable to raise capital to Manage its 7 Billion Debt - Scrapped its IPO Plan in Singapore for 1 Billion due to Choppy Market Condition

Now Rcom has applied for a Loan of 30 Bln from Indian Largest PSU Bank - State Bank of India and also need INR 10 Bln to meet its Capex need in Fin Year 2012-13.

Raising Uncertainty in Telecom Sector and falling Profit - Huge Capex Need and Biggest Debt made the company to look Unattractive and I feel it may touch 47 and even 42 in Short term.

Lets See. Cheers!!!

Monday, August 13, 2012

Nifty Views - 13.08.2012

Dear All,

>>>NIFTY<<<


>Click the chart to see in full screen<

Nifty bounced today on the later party of the trade with almost doubling its premium with out any strength on MACD. As wrote already 5386 should decide the trend.

Now the above chart explains how the downfall has been counted. For clarity i have given 5 min chart. Fall upto 5194 completed wave 1 and a retrace for sub 2 as abc is marked, a possible move upto 5366-73 should be marked as 2.

I think Nifty should fall from there with high intensity selling for wave 3. above 5386 this count invalid.

>>>SBIN<<<<


Many queries to me on messenger and email about SBIN after seeing weekly review. So Im updating the Latest chart with my view


>Click the chart to see in full screen<


As per above chart - its clear that SBIN on good support Zone - as its over sold and need to retrace - should move up to 1913 and 1947 - where it can start sliding once again. If start sliding as given may fall upto 1890 / 1837 and 1768 may be even 1680 in worst case sooner or later.

Cheers!!!

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Weekly Review

Dear All,

Lets Review our Last Week Post on 04th of August and Let see what happen this week.

>>>Nifty<<< As given Last Week



As wrote last week about a Flag Patter or Reverse Head Shoulder.

Happened this Week


So whats Next Week for..


Nifty exhibiting a Clear Negative Divergence on MACD - shows selling may emerge at any point of time unless 5376 gets breaks with a strong volume.

But whats happening is similar to the Pattern discussed on 07th August as I wrote on "Time to be Cautious". You can also refer to by checking here

http://niftyforall.blogspot.in/2012/08/time-to-be-cautious.html

Lets See some of the Performance for Last Week:-

>>>Pantaloon<<<



03/Aug/2012 09:43:01): *****STOCK-ALERT***** PANTALOON
Sell & Hold at Cmp:164. SL above 169. Target 155 / 147 & 140.

(09/Aug/2012 13:33:09): *****N4A-STOCK-ALERT***** PANTALOON - 150.45. Sell given on 03rd Aug at 164. Profit so far 2000 X 14 = Rs.28000

>>>SBIN<<<


As given Last Week



Happened this week


See the Performance

(08/Aug/2012 14:38:33): *****N4A-STOCK-ALERT***** :-
Sell SBIN between 2080-90. SL above 2130. Target 2000 & 1930. (all Cash Levels Only)


10-08-12, 12-46-18 pm *****N4A-STOCK-UPDATE***** SBIN - All target achieved. Made a Low of 1922. Our Target 1930. Sell given on SBIN at 08th Aug - 2080. Book Full Profit. Profit 125 X 150 = Rs.18750. Hope all enjoy.

See the other stock performance :-

>>>RCOM<<<


8-08-12, 03-05-10 pm *****N4A-STOCK-ALERT***** :- Sell & Hold RCOM below 55.50. SL above 59. Target 52 / 47 & 42.

9-08-12, 09-56-26 am ****N4A-STOCK-UPDATE***** :- RCOM - Sell call Triggered. cmp:55.35.

9-08-12, 01-35-06 pm *****N4A-STOCK-ALERT***** Rcom Gone - 54.55. Sell given AT 55.50. Profit 1 X 8000 = Rs.8000 Only So far. Hold Rest for Target.

>>>>>Bank Nifty<<<<


9-08-12, 02-24-36 pm *****N4A-BANK NIFTY ALERT***** Sell BANK NIFTY near 10460-470. SL above 10510. Target 10420 / 10350 & 10280.

10-08-12, 12-49-37 pm*****N4A-BANK - NIFTY - UPDATE*****
Sell given on Bank Nifty at 10460 Yesterday. Achieved 2nd Target at 10350. Cmp:10335. Profit so Far. 25 X 110 = Rs.2750. Book 50% Profit.

>>>Chambal & Axis Bank<<<


9-08-12, 02-38-29 pm *****N4A-STOCK- ALERT***** Sell CHAMBAL FERT below 70. SL 71.5 (closing basis). Target 66 / 63 & 60 (all cash levels)

10-08-12, 09-46-01 am*****N4A-STOCK-ALERT***** Sell AXIS-BANK below 1080. SL above 1098. Target 1040 & 1000.

10-08-12, 01-07-29 pm*****N4A- STOCK-UPDATE***** Chambal Fert 69.20. Sell @ 70. Profit 8000 X 0.07 = 6400 AXIS BANK 1072. Sell at 1080. 8 X 250 = 2000

10-08-12, 01-15-59 pm *****N4A- STOCK-UPDATE***** AXIS BANK approaching first target 1040. cmp: 1048. profit 32 X 250 = Rs.8000. Enjoy

Potential Charts for Next Week :-


Possible Head Shoulder on IFCI - a break below the Trend line means - Free Fall.