Sunday, March 09, 2014

Weekly Review :- 10.03.2014

Dear All,

Yes, Last week was Bull's Week. All my Counts and analysis becomes Invalid and Bull took total control.

We hit our Stop Loss on Nifty, Bank Nifty and Some stocks too.

So whats the news and how it happened. Lets see some Bad news followed by some Reversal news last week.

On March 01st had the following news as given below.

April-Jan fiscal deficit at $86 billion, crosses full year target (Please click the link below for details)

On March 05th news on fiscal deficit change the entire scenario as given below.

Q3 Current account deficit drops to 0.9 per cent, stands at lowest in 8 years (Please click the link below for details).

So How this happened and what magic happened in just 4-5 days on our economy. May be I'm missing some thing in this context. The readers who knows better on fundamental may drop email to me to if there is any justification in this regard.

One more thing I need clarifications.

On Jan and Feb 2014 RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has said that NPAs must be curbed before the problem becomes alarming.

Public sector banks (PSBs) have registered a massive increase in non-performing assets (NPAs). Gross NPAs of PSBs stood at Rs 112,489 crore in March 2012 rising to Rs 155,890 crore in March 2013 and all- time high of Rs 182,829 crore by June 2013. The Standing Committee on Finance is all set to examine the reasons for high NPAS in PSBs, including bigger banks like State Bank of India (SBI) and Punjab National Bank (PNB).

On Mar 5, 2014 Worried over a further rise in bad loans, especially among large companies, Finance Minister P Chidambaram exhorted PSU banks to effectively deal with non-performing assets (NPAs), their biggest challenge.

He said the efforts have yielded some results as PSU banks recovered Rs 18,933 crore of bad loans during the nine months through December 2013.

Bad loans of PSU banks rose 28.5 per cent to Rs 1.83 lakh crore in March 2013 over the preceding September.

Finally let us see what Analyst (S&P) said on 2014 about Indian Banking Sector.

2014 will remain challenging for Indian banks, say analysts (click the link below)

In Spite of all these (bad) news, the first upmove started from banking stocks.

So finally lets see what technical Says...

>>> NIFTY - Weekly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On Weekly Chart shows clear Break Out from the channel !!!.

>>> Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier On several Weekly review - Have mentioned about the end of Wave B and wrote about the fall of Wave C of 2. Now after breaking 6358 all bear possibilities got truncated and a IHS like pattern also Break Out.

So its time to review the counts on bulls favor. Hence on Nov 03rd 2013 Wave 1 completed @ 6342 and Wave 2 Completed @ 5933 on Feb 04th 2014. Finally Wave 3 on the move. So Last week we saw a Speedy upmove as a result of Wave 3.

Lets See in details how the upmove may continue on Hourly Chart also.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Upmoving as Wave 3 with extension waves. Possible Resistance are 6530, 6594 and 6726. I hope this current upmove may last longer till 6726 with some correction and consolidation.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty - on Dec 09th 2013 made a high of 12226 was 78.6% retrace of Previous wave and hence referred as Wave B or 2. So thought the fall should be as abc or 1-5. Now if Bank Nifty can take the high of 12226 then the bear count should be invalid. Though I have given the above chart in favor of Bulls.

Possible resistances @ 12340, 12988 and 13814. Since now there are many doubts in this upmove, one should trade cautiously.

Possibilities such as A-B-C-D-E - may touch 13814 if trades above 12226. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

11905 Resistance should be taken out for upmove. Above 12226 - overall upmove possible. Lets wait and see.