Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Support @ 6660 & 6630

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Finally nifty fell down and touched the line as I was writing these for this entire week. Now we have 2 alternatives on the above chart.

First the current move can be defined as an a-b-c-d-e type correction for Sub wave 4. All those are marked on yellow color on chart.

Else we might have completed Wave 1 and 2 as marked with white color numbers.

In either cases Nifty may move up, provided it must hold the support mentioned on chart. 6660, 6630 and 6590 should hold on friday for a good move in coming days. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Said Yesterday - Bank Nifty should test the channel. See what happened

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Touched the channel as written yesterday, now expect a good bounce from here.

>>> HDFC Bank <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we are again Long in HDFC bank - Expect a good Upmove soon. Cheers!!!

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Get Ready for Exit Poll Rally !!!

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote Yesterday 6680 may test for Sub wave 4. So market corrected today also and may find support near 6680 for a possible Exit Poll rally soon. Get Ready.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty also on sub wave 4. Lets See.

>>> Wipro <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wipro may correct possibly and may rebound from the channel given on chart. We are long and booked partial today. Lets See.


>>> HINDUNILVR <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We exited our long when the channel support broken with a loss of 2500.

Monday, April 28, 2014

Next Support @ 6680

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty forming an a-b-c-d-e and may take support @ 6680. If breaks then fall to resume.

>>> Dr.Reddy - As Updated on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on last weekly review - More upside left, See what happened.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Booked today on first Target.

>>> Coal India <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Coal India if breaks the channel or 50 HMA then fall to continue. We hold short from 300 and part booked @ 295. Lets See.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Weekly Review - 28.04..2014

Dear All,


It looks like market may or need to correct as the modi wave getting dimmer.

A Reuters poll showed that probability of strong economic rebound are dim regardless of election outcome as industry remains weak.

Another issue is Monsoon rainfall in India this year is likely to be below average and there is a 60 percent chance that El Nino will affect farm output and economic growth, the weather office said Thursday.

So what is mean by El Nino ????

El Nino - a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific - affects wind patterns and can trigger both floods and drought in different parts of the globe, curbing food supply.

The worst El Nino on record in 1997-98 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river that killed more than 1,500 people.

El Nino means "boy" in Spanish and was first used by anchovy fishermen in Ecuador and Peru in the 19th century.

The disruptive weather phenomenon El Nino could shave as much as 75 basis points off the country’s economic output as a hit on agriculture could cause the central bank to delay cutting interest rates.

So the question now is Will it derail Modi rally on Dalal Street post polls and also now; and by how much?

"Bad monsoon will lead to only a slight correction as our valuations are attractive unlike the US and other markets," says market analyst AK Prabhakar

"If it (El Nino) happens, it'll lead to higher inflation which will result in no rate cuts from the RBI going ahead. This will have only some impact on the stock market. How much the impact will be can only be said once final picture on El Nino comes out," says Gurang Shah, vice-president, Geojit BNP Paribas

>>> Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So if you are a regular reader of this blog, then you must understand the above chart. Almost for many weeks warned about the possible end of rally.

Last week Hanging man may be a Warning and followed by a Inverted Hammer should be a confirmation for a fall.

Strongly advising Caution.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As per above chart I feel 1-5 upmove almost completed. Negative Divergence on RSI also confirming the bearishness. So daily chart also advising caution.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have seen a lot on Daily and weekly chart on Bank Nifty in past weeks. So Posting the Hourly chart. As it seems like Bank Nifty completed its 1-5 upmove. Hence a break below the channel may trigger a fall.

>>> Stock Performance for the Week <<<

>>> BIOCON <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>>> IDFC - As on 21st Apr, 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> IDFC - As Updated on 23rd Apr 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> IDFC - So what's Next <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


So after getting a Banking Licence, IDFC continues to slide. I heard that many are long after the news break out and met a loss after that.

The reason for the fall is many long term investors started selling their shares for the following reasons.

1.IDFC will be impacted in the short term in order to comply with regulatory provisions such as maintaining SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio), CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) and compulsorily giving loans as per the priority sector lending (PSL) which are both riskier and of low yields.

2.Operational costs of IDFC will go up as it will have to open branches in Tier–5/6 cities which will be a costly affair and low yielding as raising sizeable deposits from such cities will be a difficult task.

3.In an increasing competitive scenario, IDFC will face execution risk in acquiring and retaining talent as well as training the existing staff to perform banking functions.

4.Increasing competition will also make it difficult for IDFC to scale its asset/liabilities base. Edelweiss believes that it will take IDFC at least 4-6 years to ramp up their operations. Edelweiss feels that these measures would bring down IDFCs Return on Equity (RoE) to sub-10 per cent levels which in any case is a modest 14 per cent.

5.But the most important point as far as investors are concerned is that IDFC will have to bring down and cap its FII holding to 49 per cent from the present level of 53.5 per cent. If some of these FIIs refuse to sell in the market then IDFC will be compelled to go in for an equity dilution to the extent of 7-8 per cent. This would further lower the Return on Equity (RoE).

So whats next - Technically I feel good time ahead soon. Ignoring the above factors - I feel its a good bet in short to longer terms. Details Only to our Subscribers.

>>> HDFC Bank - As updated on 22nd Apr, 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Hdfc Bank - As Updated on 23rd Apr, 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Dr-Reddy <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Performance <<<

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Cat on a Wall !!!

Dear All,


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

No direction near the channel top, looks like a cat on a wall.

>>> IDFC - As Updated on 21st Apr <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 21st Apr that we are short on IDFC - See what happened ???


>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Second Target done with a Profit of Rs.18000, Now if breaks 116 then more fall coming. Get ready.

>>>> HDFC Bank - As Updated Yesterday <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote Yesterday that we are long on HDFC Bank and Booked 5000 Part profit also, See what happened today.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked 10,000 Profit @ 740. Cheers!!!

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

6838 Resisted

Dear All,

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Channel resisted @ 6838.

>>>> HDFC BANK <<<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we are long since 720 and part booked @ 730 with a profit of 5000. More upmove left for more profit. Get Ready. Cheers!!!

Monday, April 21, 2014

6819 may give a PAUSE

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6819 previous high may give a pause before next move. So lets wait and see.

>>> BIOCON <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bumper Profit booked @ 30,000. Cheers!!!

>>> IDFC <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

IDFC Long worked worked out well with a profit of Rs.10,000. Now we have shorted as given on chart. Lets see.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Weekly Review - 21.04.2014

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Those who read my blog regularly may understand the above weekly chart. So a Hanging man candle last week.

Unable to cross previous week's high should be noted here.

Its going to be a highly sensitive move as election for the 16th lok sabha nearing to end. Well its going to be very interesting next week.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

I wrote last week 6650 is important, hence unable to break 6650, and a break out from a falling wedge shows that we still have one more up move left. So Nifty may face resistance above 6797, 6838 and 6878.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Some more upmove left on Bank nifty also.

>>> Performance Last Week <<<

>>> Wipro <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Bicon <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Crompton <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Stocks for Next Week <<<

>>> EMAMI LTD <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>>INFY<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Performance <<<

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

6650 Final Support

Dear All,


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6650 last support for bulls. We still hold our Short on Nifty. Lets See.

>>> Crompton <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we booked Part for Rs.32000. More fall coming as per chart.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

6714 and 6686 may Support

Dear All,

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6730 broken as wrote last week. Now channel may give support and hence 6714 and 6686 may protect the bull from falling.

>>> Wipro <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked 10,000 Profit in wipro.

>>> BIOCON <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Long since 440, more upside left

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Weekly Review :- 15.04.2014

Dear All,


>>> Modi Vs Rajan <<<

Rajan, 51, served as chief economic adviser to the finance ministry under the Congress party-led government, which opinion polls say faces defeat in the five-week national election starting on Monday.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who since being appointed last September has enjoyed an unusually smooth ride in a country where governments often treat the RBI as a punchbag for their own policy failings.

The former International Monetary Fund chief economist is widely viewed as India's most capable technocrat, winning the respect of investors for his handling of a currency crisis that hit Asia's third-largest economy last year.

Rajan has raised the repo policy rate three times by a total of 75 basis points to 8 percent.

BJP treasurer Piyush Goyal has attacked Rajan over a series of interest rate hikes intended to curb inflation, now running at double the RBI's longer-term 4 percent target, at a time when economic growth has fallen to its slowest in a decade.

Subramanian Swami, a BJP ideologue and former cabinet minister with close ties to a Hindu grassroots movement that has shaped Modi's thinking, puts it more bluntly: "We can make it worthwhile for him to leave," Swami told Reuters.

"Governor Rajan is only aggravating the problems and making them worse by increasing interest rates," Goyal, a leading strategist and fundraiser for the nationalist opposition party, told the Economic Times.

Under the RBI Act of 1934, Rajan serves at the pleasure of the government: "The central government may remove from office the Governor, a Deputy Governor or any other Director," it says.

While no RBI governor has been sacked in the central bank's 80-year history, two have quit before completing their terms - most recently Sir Benegal Rama Rau, who resigned in 1957 due to differences with the finance minister.

Arun Jaitley, a BJP leader tipped to assume either the finance or home affairs portfolio in the next government, has meanwhile avoided confrontation. Asked about Rajan in a TV interview last month, Jaitley said: "If someone is doing good job, he will certainly continue."

"It will be a big loss of face for the country and would create a negative perception among foreign investors if the BJP removes the governor immediately after forming the government," said A. Prasanna, an economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd in Mumbai.

Brushing aside as "speculation" that he has differences with the leaders of BJP, widely expected to form the next government, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said they are "media invention". "On differences with the new government, I haven't had any discussion with the new government. I think it's all press invented difference. I think it should be seen as speculation rather than any actual differences," he said while commenting on reported differences with the BJP leaders.

>>> Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

Hope one can understand the above chart clearly. If this is right, then every one should be careful hereafter - as there may a serious fall in coming days.

Since nothing to do with monthly chart, lets go to hourly chart.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

As per this hourly chart, If i'm right, then friday's fall should a corrective downside for a last leg of upmove. The rise can move up till 6835 or even 6865 to complete its 5th wave upmove.

Provided if breaks 6733-6730 support as shown on chart, then the upmove get truncated to resume the fall.

>>> Bank Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<

Since the above chart on bank nifty - published for several weeks as its facing the resistance, I think no need to explain as the picture speaks more about it.

>>> Performance <<<

>>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<<