Sunday, February 12, 2017

Weekly Review - 13th Monday, 2017

Dear All,

President Trump revealed he had a 'phenomenal' tax plan ready for unveiling in a few weeks' time," said INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir.

Trump plans to announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since the Reagan era in the next few weeks, the White House said on Thursday, sending stock prices and the dollar higher on hopes for a cut in corporate tax rates.

US economic data also underpinned the dollar. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped last week to a nearly 43-year low, while inventories at wholesalers surged in December for a second straight month.

The domestic equity market is treading cautiously since the beginning of February, when the state elections kicked off with Punjab and Goa going to polls. But UP is the state which analysts are watching with a lot of interest. The outcome of the UP elections could have a bearing on the stock market trajectory, suggest experts. If the BJP fails to clinch any state, there could be a slide in the benchmark indices.

Dalal Street might start reacting on March 9, because that is the time when we will have some idea from the exit polls and that could be a big catalyst for the market, The poll results will be declared on March 11.

Why is UP so important to market? UP is India’s largest state with 138 million voters and has a strong clout in the Upper House of Parliament, where the ruling BJP alliance lacks a majority.

After winning a clear majority in 2014, the BJP has not been faring too well in the state elections in last two years, which has been proving to be a handicap for the government in pushing many of its reformist policies.

There is a greater chance of a hung assembly in UP. From a market perspective, if the BJP is not able to form a government in the state but at least emerges as the single largest party with 160-plus seats, it would still be fine. But if that number goes below 140-130, it could be a problem.

Another instance of consensus falling short on predicting actual outcome! Surprising the market participants, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly kept the interest rates on hold with the benchmark indices settling the week barely higher even as foreign investors poured in over Rs 700 crore, while global markets found succour in US President Donald Trump’s announcement of unveiling soon some "phenomenal" tax reforms.

Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers for the week and poured in nearly Rs 240 crore in equities during the four days to Thursday, data available with NSDL showed. On Friday, they bought net equities worth Rs 504 crore, provisional data available with BSE showed.

The market will take cues from the December industrial growth, which came in at 0.4%, below expectations. Key corporate earnings such as DLF, Tata Motors, Grasim, Vedanta, Sun Pharma and Adani Ports are lined up for the week. Globally, Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to house panel, GDP growth in Japan and China’s CPI data will also be eyed.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart - Posted on 30th Jan - Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On a Jan Month end's weekly review - Mentioned 8550-70 as a crucial Resistance - may give way for more upmove.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart - What's Next <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price crossed above 8650 may trigger rally till 8970 - previous high.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Inspite of last 4 (day) red candles - Price managed to hold above 8750 for the entire week, shows the strength of bull.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

From the beginning and till date - Price moving inside a narrow channel - any break below these channel - should be considered as a weakness, till then bulls continue to hold the march on the upper side.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty looks completed its upmove, though it should be watched carefully - any positive move from govt side to help the Stressed PUS Banks may trigger more rally above 20575 - means all the above counts and analysis become invalid. So lets wait and watch to decide any further.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price need to cross above 20285 or 20310 for a healthy upmove, else may test supports like 20080 - 19966 and 19850.

>>> CNX - IT - Posted on 09th Feb, 2017 - We are Long since 9850 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are long in CNX-IT Nifty since 9850, wrote about break out and possible rally. See what happened.

>>> CNX - IT - Profit Booked @ 10400 with 550/- Point Profit <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have Booked on Friday near 10400 with 550 Points Profit. Price if manage to trade above 10430 - expect the rally to continue.

>>> AdaniPort - Posted on 03rd Feb, 2017 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier We have updated Adaniport on 03rd Feb, 2017 - Wrote about a raising wedge and a possible correction. See what happened.

>>> AdaniPort - Exited near 303 - No Holdings <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have exited @ 303 on 09th Feb, 2017 with a marginal profit. Results on 14th feb, If price manage to break above the wedge, More rally possible.

>>> MindTree - Posted on 09th Feb, 2017 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted on 09th Feb, 2017 - to Hold the Long. See what happened.

>>> MindTree - More Rally Soon - Holding Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Expect more rally above 468. We are long since 450.

>>> INFY - Long Booked with Rs.10,000/- Profit <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have booked our long on INFY near 467 with Rs.10,000/- Profit.

>>> HINDALCO - Expect a Bounce Back <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If channel holds - Expect a Bounce.

>>> Performance till 10th Feb, 2017 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Pomise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision.