Saturday, November 19, 2016

Weekly Review - 21st Nov, 2016

Dear All,

The worries about the impact of demonetization on the economy and consequently on the stock market continued to plague the market. However, consensus believes the long-term gains will even out the short-term pains.

A shock move by the Indian government to withdraw over 80% of the country’s currency in circulation has sparked a rally in bonds that could extend into late December as markets bet on a rate cut as soon as next month.

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the sudden removal of Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes on 8 November to crack down on corruption and forgeries, banks have been awash in liquidity as households rushed to tender their old bills—putting the brakes on a cash-reliant economy.

The near term hit to the economy has fed expectations of a rate cut in December, helping stoke the rally in Indian debt even as global bonds crumbled in the wake of Republican Donald Trump’s upset US presidential election win.

Macroeconomic data: Softening food prices helped ease retail as well as wholesale inflation in October, raising hopes that RBI may go in for another rate cut in its monetary policy review next month.

Retail or CPI inflation dipped to 14 month low of 4.20% in October, while the one based on wholesale prices or WPI fell for the second consecutive month to 3.39% in October.

Fed rate hike: Market ended the week decoding Yellen’s statement who said a rate hike in US may ensue ‘relatively soon’. Further, the strong US jobs data released Thursday strengthened the case for raising interest rates.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price closed below 200 DMA - almost a 550 points Sell off from 8600 - Now it looks Bear getting a bit tiered as there was a slow in correction. And we have already mentioned the current fall as wave b, in such a case price needs to hold 8000. If breaks below 8000 may negate the count and may possibly test 7800 also.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Lot of alternatives available Post muharat, US Election and Currency Ban Scenario - Apart, Last 3 days price falling and indicators looks positive shows 8000 may hold for a possible bounce. Last 4 Trading Sessions are highly Volatile and Price moves downward with a Positive Divergence on Indicators - Shows a Possible upmove any time.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price below 100DMA and RSI still need to confirm the Bearish Trend. Lot of confusions prevail in Banking Sector - Like Public Funds Flush into Cash Crunched PSU Banks - followed by a Sudden Positive Bias on PUS Stocks - News about Fall in Interest Rate in Coming Days - Struggling NBFC's, Housing Fin Co's, and Micro Fin Co's - its a Bit of confusion in entire Banking Space. But some Light at the end of tunnel for PSU banks shows a possible turn around in medium to long term.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break Below 18960 again may test 18650. Ball in the Hands of Pvt Banking Space - shows some negative sign on Friday, If starts falling may trigger some sell off.

>>> Maruti - Holding Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long in Maruti.

>>> ApolloTyre - Posted on 15th Nov, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted on 15th Nov,2016 - as a Possible Reversal for the Stock. See what happened.

>>> ApolloTyre - More Rally above 190 & 194 - Hold Your Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long for a Good Rally above 190 & 194.

>>> Performance till 18th Nov, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision.

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