Thursday, October 10, 2013

INFY day

Dear All,

More or less I should call tomorrow as day of INFY. Since Nifty is hanging on the top and more volatile with lot of turn around news from Economy front like Improved CAD and fast recovering INR, Market looking for a Break through for moving into next stage.

INFY which was in trouble in recent past, faced some important management reshuffle. Take over by Narayana Murthy on board along with his son have raised expectation from the India 2nd Larger IT company.


Analysts expect Infosys to raise its full-year revenue guidance in dollars while announcing its second-quarter results on Friday, driven by a more aggressive sales strategy and demand revival in the US. While many brokerages revised their revenue growth estimates for fiscal 2014, most forecasts fell in the 8-11% range. This is higher than the 6-10% that the Bangalore-based company had given in March

The higher growth expectations are driven by the perception that there is greater aggression and better management focus at Infosys in chasing large technology outsourcing contracts, especially as demand improves in the United States, its largest market. The return of cofounder and former chairman NR Narayana Murthy in June has added to the optimism.

On the profitability front, Infosys is expected to report the lowest growth among India's large software providers due to the impact of recent wage revisions, pricing pressures and costs incurred from the ongoing organisational restructuring. Analysts expect a 10% to 16% net profit growth in rupee terms and 40 to 70 basis points fall in operating margins despite the depreciation of rupee, which fell over 10% against the US dollar during the July-September period.

Since returning to the company he co-founded with six others in 1981, Murthy has sought three years to rebuild a "desirable" Infosys.
Under Murthy, Infosys has been cutting costs in overseas work locations and focusing more on winning deals in traditional areas such as software development and managing IT infrastructure for large corporations After his return the company has seen several senior executives leaving the company, including North America head Ashok Vemuri and global sales chief Basab Pradhan.

The fall in rupee has been seen as a big positive for the Indian IT sector. The currency may have recovered from the lows of just about 69, but it has lost too much in too short a period, and is much below the levels seen not too far back. Good for the IT sector, analysts have been crying since long. Particularly talking about Infosys, the now-disputed poster boy of the Indian IT sector; the company would be announcing its keenly awaited Q2 results tomorrow.

So lets see what Technical Says :-

>>> Weekly Chart - INFY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Weekly Chart shows Wave B has almost comleted and Wave C may start any time. Means a fall waiting on card. Lets see in details on Hourly Chart how the last upmove has been done.

>>> Hourly Chart - INFY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As gap Up seen on Hourly chart was done after Narayana Murthy's re-entry on board. So its an extension as a-b-c-d-e. Right now the upmove looks like almost completed.
For tomorrow - Recent high 3188 - top looks very crucial. I hope its the end of wave B. If not taken out then Wave C must start and a fall not ruled out. Caution advised.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty had a very choppy session today. No change in view, still 6048 is not taken out. So lets wait for direction.