Saturday, September 01, 2012

Weekly Review - 01-Sep-2012

Dear All,

On 28th Aug - Have given the Bank Nifty Chart and said the Break down of a Symmetrical Triangle - as give below..


>Click chart to see in full screen <

As per Bank Nifty shown 9948 on Friday - Since no major changes on chart - not posting any updated chart.

Apart from Technical lets see some fundamental also.

Latest Report from CRISIL says that
Loan restructuring by banks could soar to Rs 3.25 lakh crore this fiscal against the earlier estimate of Rs 2 lakh crore. Indicates that 2012 is going to be challenging for banking Sector as a whole.

Most of the Public Sector Bank reported an Increase in NPA's and Provisions hurting their Profitability Badly.

Slowing economic growth and high interest rates have crimped the ability of many borrowers to repay their debts, causing bad loans to pile up at banks.

Many expected New FM PC may or will Cut the CRR when he took Charge of the Ministry, Now there is no Indication about it, Falling GDP and Inflation holding up on higher side indicates the Risk of Credit Crunch.

Fiscal deficit during April-July reached 51 per cent of the budgetary estimate of Rs 5.13 lakh crore, raising fears of the government breaching its fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP for the current year.

The renewed concerns will discourage the Reserve Bank of India from easing monetary policy and give the rating agencies reason to carry out their threat of downgrading India's sovereign rating to junk grade.

This shows the slowing growth is taking its toll on revenues while government was unable to rein in its expenditure.

All these above suggest that Economy and Banking Sector in Particular in Deep trouble.


>Click the chart to see in full screen <

Nifty completed sub wave(1) down and should bounce back for a corrective upmove. As given on chart - Pipe Bottom Pattern - On Candle Stick shows that an Interim downside in finished and a Bounce back for sw(2) is ON. Possible upmove shall be 5330 to 5350.


Attached is the Peformance for the Month End of August 2012. We did a profit of Rs.1,30,000. All levels mentioned here are Cash levels and advised to execute trade on Futures. Stop Loss on Closing basis and Some Exit may have advised earlier.

Cash required is atleast 2 lakhs - Maximum of 2-3 Position shall be carried out at a time.

Red Colored are Stop Loss hit and Loss is deducted from the total Profit.



> Click the chart to see on Full Screen <

Axis Bank - after consolidating for more than 4 months - finally Axis Bank has given a Break down. 984 is a Support, break below may test 940 & 898.