Sunday, December 25, 2016

Weekly Review 26th, December 2016

Dear All,

"Those who failed to take the decision have pushed the country to grave peril -- I have saved the country, as I had promised to do," Modi Said on a Public Rally.

The Modi government is likely to press ahead with its anti-black money drive in 2017 too, with the focus shifting to benami property. Saturday he also hinted at increasing taxes on capital markets, adding that his government would not hesitate from taking tough decisions such as demonetisation. “Those who profit from financial markets must make a fair contribution to nation-building through taxes. For various reasons, the contribution of tax from those who make money on the markets has been low,” said Modi during his speech at an event organised by capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

“Earlier, there was a feeling that some investors were getting an unfair deal by using certain tax treaties. As you know, those treaties have been amended by this government. Now it is time to re-think and come up with a good design which is simple and transparent, but also fair and progressive,” the PM said.

FII's certainly don't like these kinds of Uncertainty - Hence forth - No wonder they are pulling back. It was certainly a year of unexpected events, Brexit and Trump win were low probability events. Demonetisation, though, was totally unexpected.

The majority of these unforeseen events were bunched in the second half of the year. In the first half, investors’ sentiment was still upbeat. A normal monsoon after two years of drought, and the implementation of the Seventh Pay Commission were widely expected to boost consumer demand, especially in rural India. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Sensex companies for fiscal 2017 were at their highest on 4 May at Rs1,659.21, according to Bloomberg data.

While the long-term impact of demonetisation is unclear, economists and investors agree the economy will take a hit in the short run. The much-awaited earnings recovery, which was on the horizon, now looks at least two quarters away.

The consensus EPS estimate of BSE’s 30-share Sensex is now at Rs1,455.47, a 10.47% decline from Rs1,625.21 at the start of fiscal 2017, according to Bloomberg. Firm commodity prices, particularly crude oil, is also likely to erode profit margins. This may not have been accounted for by analysts in earnings estimates.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Just a simple analysis by a Trend line - Price and RSI breaking the trend line.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price action from next trading days may give a clear picture.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its a Perfect 1-5 downside and test the channel bottom - as far as the channel support holds - I expect a pull back.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its simple - Price test 38.2% retrace. 100 WMA may give support.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hope a three wave down is completed at present.

>>> Performance for the month end of Dec, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision