Sunday, December 10, 2017

Weekly Review - 11th December 2017

Dear All,

>>> Week Ahead <<<

Majority of experts feel the BJP is likely to win Gujarat elections but the Congress may manage to get some voting share of BJP due to demonetisation and GST concerns. If the BJP wins by a big margin then the market could rally or hit fresh record highs, but if it scrapes through then there could be correction in the short term which would be a good buying opportunity, experts said.

Hence, all focus in the coming week would be on Gujarat elections, though there are other important factors like Federal Reserve rate decision, CPI inflation and factory data due to be announced.

Gujarat Elections :-

Gujarat elections are very important for BJP being a ruling party in the state for more than two decades and Narendra Modi who had been chief minister before becoming the Prime Minister of the India.

The voting for first phase (for 89 seats of Saurashtra and south Gujarat) began in Gujarat on December 9 and the second phase (for 93 seats of north and central Gujarat) will take place on December 14. The results of polls will be announced on December 18.

All state elections lined up before Loksabha elections 2019 are very important for Modi government.

Federal Reserve Meet :-

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next week (December 12-13). Analysts largely expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, for third time in current year. Short-term interest rate is currently at 1-1.25 percent.

Macro Data :-

In the coming week, we have few crucial numbers - November CPI & October industrial output data on December 12 and WPI inflation on December 14 - which were acting as breathing space for RBI to continue to maintain status quo.

Apart from that, balance of trade data will be released on Monday, current account on Tuesday and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended December 8 on Friday.

Global Cues :-

Global cues are likely to help the Sensex open on a positive note on coming Monday. Stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed Wall Street to record close.

Crude oil price movement will be closely watched as Brent crude futures have been trading in a range of USD 61-65 a barrel after it crossed the USD 60-mark. On Friday, it settled at USD 63.40 a barrel on Chinese crude demand and threats of a strike in Africa's largest oil exporter.

Apart from FOMC's rate decision on Wednesday, Bank of England and European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday. Analysts don't expect any change in interest rates from both central banks but the commentary would be keenly watched.

On the economic data front, Japan's producer price index (PPI) data for November will be released on Tuesday, core machinery orders for October on Wednesday and manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

In the US, November PPI data will be announced on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, manufacturing and services PMI on Thursday and November industrial & manufacturing production on Friday.

Europe's October industrial production data will be released on Wednesday and China's November industrial production on Thursday.

Some of the key economic data releases includes inflation data from the UK (CPI) and US (CPI and PPI), retail sales numbers from the US and UK, and jobs data from the UK and Australia.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

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Price got support on Weekly Channel as a Bullish Hammer - Shows Bulls are regaining Strength.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

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Price closed above 100 & 50 DMA - Resistance @ 10340 & 10435.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart - Posted on Wednesday <<<

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Above chart Send on whatsapp to client as Bullish wolf wave formation.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

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Must Cross and hold above 10265 & 10330 - to give strength to Bulls and Wolf Wave.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

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Its a Dragon fly doji on 20 WMA - Shows - Bulls are regaining Strength.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

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Price got support from multiple sources shows the strength for bulls. Though Must cross hurdles like 25360 - 25710 - 25980.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

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Resistance @ 25380 - 25520 - 25630.

>>> NIFTYIT Daily Chart <<<

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IT Index faces resistance @ 11240-250 - If not crossed - Expect Correction.

>>> N4A - Whatsapp <<<

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