Saturday, August 31, 2013

Weekly Review 02.09.2013

Dear All,


GDP growth dived to a four-year low of 4.4 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2013-14, against 4.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year, official data showed on Friday.

Growth crashed as industry was under the pressure of high interest rates and the overall gloomy economic conditions. Much of the services sector, too, posted a modest growth, except for government expenditure-boosted community and social activities.

The effect of the Reserve Bank of India’s high interest rate regime was visible, as private final consumption expenditure, indicating demand in the economy, grew just 1.62 per cent in the first quarter of 2013-14, against 3.8 per cent in Q4 of 2012-13.


Agriculture growth, too, did not pick up as expected. It grew just 2.7 per cent in the first quarter, against 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012-13. Factoring seasonality, the growth was lower than the 2.9 per cent in the first quarter.

Only electricity, gas and water supply posted some semblance of growth. But here, too, growth fell to 3.7 per cent, almost half of the 6.2 per cent seen in the first quarter of 2012-13. However, it picked up sequentially, as growth stood at 2.8 per cent in Q4 of 2012-13.

Below are the sector wise growth/degrowth:

Q1FY14 GDP At 4.4% Vs 4.8% (QoQ)
Q1FY14 GDP At 4.4% Vs 5.4% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Services Growth At 6.6% Vs 6.6% (QoQ)
Q1FY14 Services Growth At 6.6% Vs 7.7% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Ind Growth At 0.2% Vs 2.7% (QoQ)
Q1FY14 Ind Growth At 0.2% Vs 1.8% (YoY)
Q1 FY14 Agriculture Growth At 2.7% Vs 1.4% (QoQ)
Q1 FY14 Agriculture Growth At 2.7% Vs 2.9% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Construction Growth At 2.8% Vs 7% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Mfg Sector Growth At -1.2% Vs -1% (YoY)
Q1FY14 Mining Growth At -2.8% Vs 0.4% (YoY)

Meanwhile IMF said "The current situation presents a challenge, obviously, to the government of India, but also an opportunity for the government to continue with its policy efforts on a variety of fronts," International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesman Gerry
Rice said.

Amid slowing tax revenues and rising Plan expenditure, the Centre’s fiscal deficit for the first four months of this financial year soared to Rs 3.4 lakh crore, 62.8 per cent of the Budget estimate (BE) of Rs 5.42 lakh crore for 2013-14, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts.

Earlier, Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said the target of reining in fiscal deficit at 4.8 per cent of GDP this financial year was a red line that wouldn’t be breached. Friday’s data showed he had a difficult task at hand. In the April-July period this year, it was particularly Plan expenditure that increased the fiscal deficit — it stood at Rs 1.49 lakh crore, 27 per cent of the BE of Rs 5.55 lakh crore. In the corresponding period last year, it stood at 21.9 per cent of the BE.


>>> NIFTY - WEEKLY - As Updated on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Last Weekly Chart gave a Hammer and closed above 100wma & 200wma and saved 50% Fib level.

>>> Happened and Yet to on Weekly Chart <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<


This week also Nifty saved all the levels like last week and closed above 5380 and formed a Pipe Bottom - gives me lot of confidence and hence if next week able to close above 5528 then expect a Trend Reversal or say "U" turn on Indian Stock market.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<
>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Daily Chart gives a Clear picture of how Bulls have taken control on the market. All important indicators like MACD and RSI on the buy side. Also EW have changed its count after nifty breaks above 5454 and so the last leg down was changed to a-b-c. Seems like bulls coming back

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<
>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<


Hourly chart have closed above 100dma, but since it failed last time, we need more confirmation to break and trade above the trend line as shown on chart.

>>>> BANK NIFTY <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Bank Nifty last fall almost retraced 127.2& of wave (a)/(i) - and formation of doji at the end - suggest the possible reversal. We need more confirmation from indicators. So lets wait and see.

>>> BLOCK BUSTER CHARTS OF THE WEEK <<<

>>> COAL INDIA <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Coal India hit a low of 238 last week and second target also achieved.

>>> AXIS BANK <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Axis Bank made a high of 890. Almost rallied Rs.70 from our Buy call.

>>> BHEL <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

BHEL made a high of 120.80 almost near the third target.

>>> YES BANK <<<
>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Yes Bank still on Holding. Part Profit booked Rs.5000/- Charts shows a good Break Out. Lets See

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<