Sunday, March 30, 2014

Weekly Review - 31.03.2014

Dear All,

Well Market Rallied so Far On Expectations of a Narendra Modi-led Government may win majority has fuelled a bull run in the equity market and surge in the rupee against the US dollar. Now many analyst feel that the next move is not the poll outcome but global cues that will drive the equity market in India.

Markets could rise by up to 10 per cent from its current 6,600-odd level if a BJP-led alliance forms the government and could fall equally precipitously if that does not happen.

At the same time the local currency touched a seven-month high of 60.60 against the dollar earlier this month after data showed a sharp drop in the CAD for the third quarter of FY14 ($4.2 billion, or 0.9 per cent of GDP). A stable rupee has helped improve India's external profile and consequently exports, especially in IT, pharmaceutical, chemicals and textiles.

A majority of opinion polls have shown the possibility of a stable government at the Centre, raising the prospect of market-friendly reforms from the new government. The latter will have to work in close co-ordination with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to gradually steer India's economy to a high growth path. Decisive policy measures by the new government can go a long way in giving RBI the much-needed room to cut interest rates and maintain price stability as inflation is showing signs of cooling. Until such time, the RBI is unlikely to make any major alteration to its current monetary stance, whereby it is clearly focusing on taming inflation.

At the same time Finance Minister P Chidambaram rejected media analysis that the “hope” of a stable Government after elections is bringing in investments and driving up the capital market and the value of Rupee. He maintained it is not “hope” but the “fact” of a stable Government provided by UPA and the numerous measures taken in the last 18 months that have provided stability and strength to the Indian economy.

>>> Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break out from the channel, But the Trend line resistance should be watched before next move.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Same as said on weekly chart, Trend line must be watched carefully. As per EW wave 3 is ON. Though we need to check the hourly chart EW count for next move, as trend line gives us warning.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty hourly suggest that the Price in the last leg of 1-5 upmove. Hence the 5th leg faces resistance @ 6700 or 6716. So a possible correction for Wave 2 may set in any time. Since highly over bot zone may trigger some correction shall be used for accumulation also. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Daily Bank Nifty Chart faces resistance from the Trend line.

>>> Indian Cement <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A Sudden move on India Cement nearly 10% was a surprise. Chart shows a good Break out. Lot of news flow from IPL front should be watched. If all negative news are priced in, hope for a good upmove.

>>> Havells <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Havells Bull run starts from 2009 onwards, seems like ended its 5th wave now. 924 and 940 very crucial level. If unable to cross may confirm the end of bull run.

>>> Performance <<<

>>> click the image to see on full screen <<<