Saturday, January 11, 2014

Weekly Review :- 13.01.2014

Dear All,

Will Arvind Kejriwal's AAP a new Bear for the equity market?

The impressive debut by Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Delhi assembly polls has caused a flutter not only in political circles but in the equity market as well

Many are wondering whether AAP, which has announced its national ambitions, may end up cutting into the votes of the established political parties in the general election likely in May, lowering their seat tally and thereby the chances of a stable government at the Centre.

Most fund managers surveyed in the fourth Business Today's Morningstar Asset Allocation Survey felt the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance had a good chance of forming the next government at the centre and 67 per cent of them expected the market to rise if the NDA came to power.

But there is apprehension that the rising popularity of AAP could spoil electoral equations and lead to a fractured mandate.

Markets do not like uncertainty. Last month, the Sensex had touched its all-time high of 21,483.73 on a reasonable expectation that the NDA government would come to power by June. But with AAP in the fray, the NDA's chances of getting a majority have receded.

>>>Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have published this chart many time before and said the possibilities for a fall. This week move has confirmed the fall as there is a break down on price and RSI also. Now CAUTION ADVISED.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart resisted at 6223 as directed earlier. Alerted all my clients to exit all longs on friday. Next support 6130 if unable to hold may trigger next round of sell off.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty also broken the a-b-c-d-e raising wedge, RSI too confirming the bear trend. CAUTION ADVISED.

>>> SBIN - Follow Up - As Updated on 13th Nov, 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

SBIN - As updated after the last quarterly result - as expected price made a high of 1925 and then fell down. So lets see whats next.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So now the channel broken and moving towards the target of 1518 or even below. Caution advised on Longs.

>>> Performance <<<
>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<