Saturday, September 15, 2012

Weekly Review - 15.09.2012

Dear All,

>> After a Month long waiting Cong. Govt got the courage to Open the doors for FDI in Multi Branch Retail and Civil Aviation Industries. This will pave the way for the much-awaited entry of foreign retail giants such as Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour into the $450 billion retail market, although their footprint will be limited to million-plus cities in states which have agreed to back the measure.

>> The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs also approved disinvestment in public sector units - Oil India (10%), NALCO (12.5%), Hindustan Copper (9.59%), Neyveli Lignite Corporation (5%). This move is likely to fetch Rs 15,000 crore for the government.

The decisions on Friday, along with a go-ahead for disinvestment in four PSUs to mop up Rs 14,000 crore, come within a day of the ruling coalition's decision to raise diesel price by a stiff Rs 5 a litre and cap subsidized cooking gas cylinders to six a year for every household.

>> Foreign carriers were not allowed so far to directly invest in Indian carriers for security reasons, although 49 percent FDI by non-airline players was allowed.

According to civil aviation ministry sources, the directives for the implementation of the policy will be issued within a month.

Cong Govt, Says, Allowing FDI in retail will benefit farmers and the common man the most.

UPA constituent Trinamool Congress set a 72-hour deadline for the government for the roll back of the decision.

TMC said the decision is harmful for the people of the country. “It will allow multi-brand firms to dictate their own terms.”

BJP Said FDI in retail was made under the pressure of "foreign forces".

SP Said "FDI in retail would affect Indian market and agriculture. The move would hit Indian economy as retailers and farmers would be ruined by it,"

BSP also criticised the move by saying, “It will provide to be a fatal for farmers and will make India a slave of multi-national companies.”

CPI(M) Said “The UPA government "cannot give any job but is snatching jobs. It is destroying the livelihood of people through so-called reform measures aimed at pleasing corporates."

So Lets analyse - Is there any Special Features or good things that can help our economy ????

Yes, or May be..

The minimum FDI limit has been set at $100 million. Half of any investment has to be made in infrastructure like cold-storage chains and warehouses. This is designed to help the agricultural sector and India has a severe shortage of these.

Another point is Least 30 per cent of the goods to be sold will have to sourced from local producers, means local producers are going to have a good price for their Products from now onwards.

But the above rules has also been relaxed a bit by the govt that if companies don't want to procure 30 per cent locally, they will have to set up a manufacturing unit. Hence forth many FDI's wants this rule to be relaxed. There is split within the government over this.

The government argues that FDI in multi-brand will give consumers the best deals possible on goods and also get it much-needed money.

Also The government will have the first right to procurement of agriculture products. Fresh agricultural products, including fruits, vegetables, flowers, grains, pulses, fresh poultry, fishery and meal products may be unbranded.

So Market getting ready to cheer on Monday also.

Coming back to Nifty - I was Pointing out that Nifty shows many negative divergence and advised caution. Instead after Friday's move from US QE3 - Nifty had a superb rally of nearly 150+ Points. Many asking or questioning that Is Nifty turned Bullish or Worst is Over????

I dont have any short call on Nifty. Due to caution - I have advised my clients to clear all Positions on the day of German Verdict and made NIL positions. We had some stock specific short calls - which is still open with out meeting Stop loss on friday's rally.

Next my level 5490 get breached and I agree that the Patterns and counts changed, even though I don't feel we may get a Buying opportunity as there is going to be one more gap up.

So whats else we have it more in Nifty lets see..

<< Nifty - Weekly Chart >>

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Weekly Chart - 5630 which is our recent high should be watched closely. 5575 & 5673 should be the Weekly Resistance levels.

>Nifty - Hourly Chart<

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As said on Weekly Chart - 5575 & 5673 shall be the 61.8% & 78.6% retrace of sw(a).

>> Weekly Chart - Ranbaxy <<

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Many queries about Ranbaxy - as many had this popular stock in their portfolio. I feel Ranbaxy is on A-B-C pattern - As B wave got over on 04th Sep, 2012 at 578.4. So Now stock may move down for Wave C. So I advice caution for those who where Long, atleast have your Stop Loss, as stock is ready for a deep correction.

Happy Weekend to All. Cheers!!!