Sunday, January 07, 2018

Weekly Review - 08th Jan, 2018

Dear All,

New traders are concerned only with making money. They celebrate when their trades are profitable and ignore trades that lose money. This is a bad idea. The path to becoming a long-term successful trader requires an understanding why the trades lost money. Then it becomes possible to reduce the number of trades that failed. In other words, if you buy call or put options, only to see them expire worthless, then you should fare better by finding other strategies -- other than buying options.

We all make winning and losing trades -- just because of probability. Some, but few, traders are skilled at predicting market direction. However, most traders -- including professional money managers -- have a difficult time outperforming the market averages. Studies have shown that most individual investors fail to understand this simple principle and tend to believe that their results are better than their actual results. In other words, they believe they do better than the market averages, when in fact, they perform far worse.

To meet that goal, we must practice good risk management and be certain that our losses are limited to acceptable levels. However, that is not the only thing we can do to achieve success as a trader. The way we think -- the trader mindset -- contributes a great deal to the success or failure of almost every trader.

Lower GDP forecast may dampen the spirit :-

India's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, sharply down from 7.1 per cent growth clocked in 2016-17, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said on January 5, as businesses were hit by the chaotic launch of GST last July. The GST transition impact is clearly visible.

Macro Data:-

The data for November industrial production and December CPI inflation will be released after market hours on Friday.

The retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index for November had increased to a 13-month high of 4.88 percent, from 3.58 percent in October, mainly due to increase in food and oil prices, while India’s industrial output slowed to 2.2 percent in October as compared with 3.8 percent a month ago.

Foreign exchange reserves data for the week ended January 5 will also be announced on Friday while balance of trade data will be declare on Wednesday.

Crude :-

Brent crude futures, the benchmark for international oil prices, crossed USD 68 a barrel level for the first time since May 2015 is the key risk for country like India which imports more than 80 percent of oil requirement.

Brent crude futures settled the week below that level, at USD 67.62 a barrel. Experts expect the crude can hit USD 70 a barrel, which is still manageable for India but beyond that the risk will increase in terms of widening fiscal deficit. Not only economy but also companies that are depend upon on crude.

Global Cues :-

Europe's industrial sentiment for December and retail sales for November will be announced on Monday, followed by unemployment rate for November on Tuesday.

China's December CPI and US' gasoline production will be released on Wednesday while Europe's industrial production for November and US' initial jobless claims will be announced on Thursday. European Central Bank will also publish account of monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

US' CPI and retail sales data for December will be declared on Friday.

>>> Nifty Weekly Review <<<

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In order to answer the most frequently asked question - Posted Above Weekly Chart. Almost a 8 year journey is given here. Hence price may test the channel top before a correction.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

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10550 Broken on Friday - New Rally and High on the way.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

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Next Resistance @ 10600 - 10660 - 10720.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

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Bank Nifty - In the middle of GST & Demo - Performed well - with the help of Pvt Banks. Almost doubled in less than two year. Price may try to test the channel top.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

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Price Started moving on the upper side. Above 25630 may test 25780.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

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Hourly Chart looks Interesting - Break above trend line may give more Rally. Key Resistance @ 25630 & 25780 may give us more rally.

>>> SBIN - Hourly Chart - Holding Long <<<

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Holding Long.

>>> DrReddy's Lab - Hourly Chart - Booked Profit <<<

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Booked Profit. May or May not - Re-Enter as per movement.

>>> N4A - Services <<<

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