Saturday, June 30, 2012

Nifty - Weekly Review

Dear All,

Here by I am Posting my Weekly Review on Both Eod & Intraday Based Chart analysis. As I have Changed many of my Counts in both Eod & Intrady - I feel this becomes necessary as my Earlier counts have breached some levels.

Here it is ....

>>>> Nifty Eod <<<<

>>>Click the Thumbnail to See in Full Screen<<<

Earlier fall from 5630 to 4770 as marked as A-B-C - have changed to 1-5 and ongoing upmove has been changed from 1-5 to A-B-C - means I feel this upmove as corrective rather than Impulse.

As given on Chart this Ongoing A-B-C is travelling inside a Expanding Triangle and have almost near 61.8% retrace at 5301-03 level.

>>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<<<

>>>Click the Thumbnail to See in Full Screen<<<

Hourly Chart gives a clear picture - Nifty traveled inside a Channel as given on Chart from 08th June to 29th June says that its surely not a 1-5 Pattern. So the Ongoing move has been labelled as A-B-C, as B has done a double zig zag. Break above 5160 has confirmed that C has started which is of 1-5 in nature. 5268 is the top of sw(2) of Wave 1 as it plays as an important resistance here. Next week nifty faces Important resistance at 5315 / 5342 / 5375 / 5450.

Once this corrective Upmove completes - Nifty should start a Big wave 3 down fall. A break below 5160 should confirm this.

Conclusion :- I have changed my entire Wave Pattern as I feel this necessary. Apart from technical lets see some the Important Macro Economical points to strengthen my views here.

>>> Almost all the World Index are Looking Bearish - Most importantly Dow / S&P looks same like Nifty's Bearish Move.

>>> Now Euro Zone should be focused on as it heavily Impacting the world market. Friday Euro Summit and followed by world market and commodity markets including Our Equity market cheered as I see this as an Over Reaction or Technically as sub wave C movement. It looks like a "Doctor agreed for an Operation" and the 'Patient cheered'. The real Pain comes only when Operation gets completed successfully. As I know that Spain's Bail out is not yet considered on Friday Summit as Spain the the 4th Largest Country in Euro Zone after Germany/France/Italy and Greece. Spains Bond marked Yield jumped form .50 to 6.58% and the Govt is ready to pay for 7% means that its financial situation is getting worse. If spain ask for an Bail Out - then Not even Euro or US or IMF can bail out then - which is I feel that the world Markets will be rattled with Panic and Choas. Any fall in euro zone nation may give a Big Panic in Forex Market - including India.

>>> I think Domestic Issues in India is worse than we expected.Most Importantly current account deficit (CAD) shot up to $78.2 billion (4.2 per cent of gross domestic product) for the year ended March 2012, from $46 billion (2.7 per cent of GDP) the previous year. This is the highest level of CAD ever — both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP — according to the Reserve Bank of India. What does it means - In spite of many Action taken by RBI in Interest Rates and Bond Market - Situation is getting out of Control form the Govt and RBI - as a Result Rupee Slide Continues - So Only Last RBI monetary Policy RBI Governor Subbha Rao denied any Rate Cut - advised Govt to reduce their Expenditure. An economist Speak Less and Reveals then Truth rather a Politician don't.

Hence the Govt is ready to Tax every thing as most of the services in India to be taxed with 12% - So ever Poor Indian should get ready to pay the Govt. Then why not the Govt can Tax FII's - But in Reality we found lot of Chaos and Confusion in the P.M. Manmohans Camp. I think Not Only Vodafone - Every M&A (merger and acquisition), may be even a PE investment may be taxed in future.

Finally I strong feel FII's wont like a Country where there are Political Instability / Lack of Policy Decision's / High Inflation / Worst GDP and finally worst Current Account Deficit.

Note:- Please note that all these above Technical and fundamental reasons are my own views and may be right or wrong. Should be taken only as education point of view and Only Price action should confirm the next move. I may change my views based on Price action and Technical Point of view. So if any one want to take any action in their Investment and Trading decision should consult your well trained adviser.

Hope Every one enjoying the week end. Lets wait till the market opens on Monday. Have a Nice week end. Cheers!!!