Saturday, September 28, 2013

Weekly Review - 30.09.2013

Dear All,

Market on the peak of Volatile last week, since there is no flow of news market lacked direction on either side.

Current account deficit:-

No relief from any front, a Reuters poll of five economists predicting the June quarter current account deficit rising to $23-25 billion, or 4.8-5.4% of the GDP, from $18.1 billion, or 3.6 per cent, in the March quarter, couldn't have come at a worse time. Good enough to hold the bulls. The numbers will be out on Monday.

Raghuram Rajan Warned :-

RBI's new chief Raghuram Rajan had sent a warning signal three years ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Just days back, he seems to have done it again, saying that there is a danger of bubbles forming around the globe due to easy monetary policy implemented to steer the world back into a more robust growth path.

"We seem to be in a situation where we are doomed to inflate bubbles elsewhere," Rajan said.

"We should wonder whether lower and lower interest rates are in fact part of the problem, I say I don't know."

Outlook :-

Markets are likely to remain range bound in the week ahead as investors would adopt wait-and-watch stance ahead of second quarter earnings. Meanwhile, reports suggest that brokerages are likely cut their expectations of growth in earnings per share (EPS) for large companies to mid-single digits on the back of factors including higher interest rates, lower domestic demand and higher cost of imported raw materials.

Markets will closely monitor key economic data such as current account deficit, balance of payments on Monday.

Data for HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for the month of September is scheduled for release on Tuesday.

Further, the trends in the Indian rupee, crude oil prices and FII activity would also be on the radar of investors.

Auto and cement stocks are likely to be in action after they start releasing their September sales and dispatch numbers.

>>> Nifty Weekly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above Weekly Chart suggest an a-b-c-d-e movement and we are on the last leg of 5 wave upmove. Hence we have still more upside left.

>>> Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As per Daily Chart we need to correct a bit till support 2 before next upmove. Detail analysis on what are the possibilities at Hourly chart.

>>>> Nifty Hourly <<<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Two alternatives - both directions are as per sub wave (iv), we are facing lot of volatile as the a-b-c wave moving with lot of zig-zag. Hope all readers got clear direction as per the above charts.

>>>> Bank Nifty - Weekly <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty Weekly - stuck in between two lines inside a Pitchfork. Unable to hold 100wma should be noted.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On Daily front I assumed the ongoing as a 5 wave upmove. Hence should take support at 50% or 61.8% means we should move up soon after the expected correction. Let see

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<