Saturday, May 24, 2014

Weekly Review - 26.05.2014

Dear All,

Deutsche Bank downgraded India to 'Neutral'


Deutsche Bank has downgraded the Indian equities to 'neutral', saying valuations appear 'very stretched' against lower GDP growth. Although they acknowledge that there is a potential for a massive long-term upside, but they suspect that there needs to be further economic pain before the agenda for more fundamental reform to governance practices becomes clearer

The BJP's historic victory in the Indian elections has rekindled hope for structural reforms, which has already led to sharp rally seen in banks, consumption stocks, infrastructure and oil & gas stocks.

Post the Modi win, many brokerages have revised their respective Sensex and Nifty targets within hours of the election results on Friday. Most of them see the Sensex hitting 27000-28,000 by the December-end and for Nifty they see the index rallying over 8000 in the same period.

Aditya Narain of Citi group says that the Modi-led NDA has won decisively, and India's equity markets could well have struck gold. This victory should offer India 5 years of decisive governance, and has upgraded its year-end target for Sensex to 26,300.

Deutsche Bank believes that the longer-term prospects for the India economy and financial markets are largely dependent on the ability and willingness of the new administration to undertake a root and branch reform of corporate level governance

The positive momentum for change derives from the fact that the shortcomings of the existing system have become increasingly apparent as the pace of economic growth has slowed. Moreover, Modi's resounding mandate does to some extent represent the victory of a younger and more urban India over the sort of deference and dynastic-based politics, which has allowed dysfunctional governance systems to thrive over the past thirty years.

>>> Nifty Hourly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week on Hourly chart - Wrote that the previous low is very important, will bounce back if it holds. See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As expected nifty moved up. Now the big question is - are we still in consolidation phase of wave (II) or not. Other than technical one more important event like Modi taking Oath as PM should be considered. So this sentiment may trigger a bounce.
In that case the above marking may become invalid. So one must keep the Stop loss before taking any position.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty had a confusing signal with 2 alternatives. So break above the channel should confirm the bull phase. Else break below the lower channel may trigger a fall.

>>> Charts of the Week <<<

>>> Biocon - As Updated on 20th May, 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Biocon - Said about the channel support and possible bounce.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As expected Price bounced and We booked at first target, which gave us a profit of Rs.6500

>>> Tata Steel - As Updated on 20th May, 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Tata Steel - wrote about the possible fall. See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Tata Steel met our first Target and we booked 10,000 Profit. So whats next. Above chart shows - possible wave b consolidation and need to break the channel for a fall as wave c.

>>> Arvind <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Arvind gave us a Hand some return, and still moving up.

>>> Performance <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<