Saturday, September 06, 2014

Weekly Review - 08.09.2014

Dear All,

Foreign portfolio flows into the Indian equity and debt markets, which have crossed Rs 1.8-lakh crore so far in 2014, are expected to receive support from the European Central Bank (ECB).

For one, the ECB has cut the rate at which banks can borrow from the central bank to 0.05 per cent. It is also set to commence its own stimulus package from October, although the quantum of the same is yet to be announced.

On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is set to end its monthly bond-buying programme in October. The trimming of the programme began in December 2013; it has come down from $85 billion a month to $25 billion.

“The US Fed’s stimulus ends by October-end, but now there will be another round of stimulus from the ECB, which will be equally important. Due to this, the global liquidity is expected to continue. This would lead to foreign flows coming to Indian markets. This is because India continues to be considered an attractive investment destination for investors,” said N S Venkatesh, executive director and head of treasury at IDBI Bank.

“There is a probability that investors would prefer to invest the surplus liquidity likely to be generated post the commencement (of the ECB action) in emerging market economies as opposed to the Euro region. In such an event, FII (foreign institutional investor) inflows into India among other (emerging market economies) will see an upswing,” said a CARE Ratings report released on Friday.

“The flows will keep continuing, but may be more in equities because on the debt side, FIIs limits are getting filled up,” said Navneet Munot, chief investment officer at SBI Mutual Fund.

>>> Nifty - Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

I hope the above chart tell you whats now and What's Next on Nifty. Yes - 8100-8106 Crosses on Nifty - then no doubt next target should be 8315. So its better to avoid short atleast, if you don't like to be on Long side. Lets see what the hourly chart also says in the short term.

>>> Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

8060 and 8040 are the immediate support. But the trend line looks important - if able to cross then upmove for the 5th wave should start. Else it may test 8040 before the next upmove. Hope its clear on chart and words.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily Chart - As Updated on 22nd Aug, 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

Two week before - i have mentioned on bank nifty daily chart - how the channel looks important. See what happened this week.

>>> Bank Nifty - Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

Yes hit the channel top and fell down or Resisted. So Only can move up if able to cross the channel. So lets go to Hourly chart and see what next.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

Looks like a triangle - But if able to cross 16050-60 on the upper channel - it may start moving up. Else may fall before the next upmove. Lets See

>>> Andhra Bank - As Posted on 01st Sep, 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote to Buy Andhra Bank on 01st Sep, Still on hold. See what happened.

>>> Andhra Bank - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If the channel support holds as shown on chart, good bounce possible. Those who have taken long can just average it with the support as stop loss.

>>> L&THF - As Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last weekly review - L&THF had a good support. As expected price bounced till 68 and came down. Now as shown on chart if the support 66 doesn't breaks then high chances of moving up again. Those who are hodlding long can again average with the given support as stop loss.

>>> L&THF - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

L&THF to be added on Nifty from Sep 26th Onwards. And the Stocks had support @ 66, If holds then you all know what will happen. So its upto you. If you are already holding long - Average it.

>>> DLF <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

DLF completed the 1-5 downside move and ready for upmove. we are long from 165, booked a part profit of Rs.20,000 @ 175. Advice to Buy on dips for a good rally in coming days.