Weekly Review 03.02.2014

Dear All,

India revises down 2012/13 GDP growth to 4.5 percent y/y :-

India revised down its economic growth for the fiscal year 2012/13 to 4.5 percent from 5.0 percent earlier, the government data showed on Friday, on lower than provisionally estimated output in farm and manufacturing sectors.

The latest numbers are the first revised gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the last fiscal year.

The data also showed lower than estimated growth numbers for exports, capital investment and consumption sectors, suggesting deeper underlying weaknesses in Asia's third-largest economy, which grew at more than 9 percent before the 2008 global financial crisis.

The GDP growth for 2011/12 fiscal year was, however, upwardly revised to 6.7 percent from 6.2 percent, but that of the 2010/11 year was revised down to 8.9 percent from 9.3 percent, the data from the Ministry of Statistics showed.

The latest downward revision was proof that efforts to revive investments by fast-tracking the approvals for big infrastructure projects didn't quite help revive the sentiments last fiscal. Aggregate demand in the economy stayed subdued and growth in all its components – government, private consumption and investments – trailed the previous year's data.

>>> Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week mentioned about the end of wave 2 and wrote about the possibilities of fall below the channel with caution.

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As expected Nifty down the channel and took support @ 6030. Below 6030 may see 5970.


>>> Nifty - Hourly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On hourly front said about the importance of channel support. See what happened !!!

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the channel and broken down 6140 crucial support also. Now I expect more fall with the given target on chart. Sell on rise is a good tactics.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote about the failure of Bank nifty to cross the Channel bottom of Pitch fork.

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty too fell down as expected. Lets see what's next on hourly chart.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly chart showing a positive divergence - Possible bounce back on card. So again Sell on rise is advisable. Short sellers may use the fall to cover shorts now and sell on rise.

>>> Hits of the Week <<<

>>> Andhra Bank <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Century Tex <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> LT <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> JP Associates <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>>Performance<<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

above performance does not include nifty profit. for details of subscription send email to niftyforall@yahoo.com

Again Sell on Rise

Dear All,

US cuts QE to $65 billion:-

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday decided to trim its bond purchases by another $10 billion as it stuck to a plan to wind down its extraordinary economic stimulus despite recent turmoil in emerging markets.

Markets in countries with large current account deficits, such as Turkey and Argentina, have suffered steep losses in part because of the prospect of less US monetary stimulus.

These currencies and stocks slumped again after the Fed's announcement, offsetting aggressive interest rate hikes by Turkey and South Africa.

On Wednesday, Bernanke, 60, quietly adjourned his final policy-setting meeting after an unusually tumultuous eight-year stint atop the world's most influential central bank.

Early assessments have been mostly positive. The former Princeton professor has been praised as the steady hand who helped steer the United States and world economies clear of a far more painful recession.

He flooded financial markets with liquidity from an alphabet soup of programs set up on the fly; he printed trillions of dollars through three rounds of QE; and he made bold promises to keep stimulus in place for years to come, tying low interest rates to particular economic outcomes in an approach emulated by other central banks.

As a leading scholar of the Great Depression, Bernanke had a deep theoretical understanding of what to do in the face of a fast-moving banking panic. He put that knowledge into practice when the financial crisis struck.

The finance ministry today said that the US Federal Reserve's decision to trim its monetary stimulus will not affect the Indian markets and all steps would be taken by the Reserve Bank of India and the government to ensure stability.

Perhaps the finance ministry should make this statement in the US, because few in India believe in it. What steps can the ministry take to protect the markets? Will it pump in money to prop up the markets or go on a road show to bring in new investors?

It is a known fact that the only reason the Indian market as well as other global markets have moved up in the last five years is because of the quantitative easing (QE) measures of the US. More than fundamentals, it is liquidity that supported the market. With increasing debt levels in the US and decreasing impact of QE on the economy, the Federal Reserve decided to taper the flow of liquidity in the system.

Federal Reserve's mandate is the US economy; it is not concerned with what's happening in emerging markets. A pause at this stage, say experts would have signalled that the Fed is a slave to the markets rather than to economic forces.

Emerging markets across the globe are in trouble, to say the least. Interest rates are on the rise in many countries (India did it too) to prevent their currency from falling. However, countries like Argentina, Turkey, Russia and South Africa continue to see currency depreciation.

A slowdown in China and currency trouble in emerging markets has scared the ETF (exchange traded funds) investor. A Bloomberg report says that ETFs are witnessing record outflow. More than $7 billion has flowed out of the emerging markets funds in January 2014, the highest redemption since data is available with Bloomberg. Two of the largest funds are witnessing their highest ever redemption since their inception.

The most that RBI and finance ministry can do is try to stabilise the currency by pumping in borrowed dollars that were was raised recently. That is putting good money, that too someone else's, after bad.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken all supports - Again sell on rise.

Resistance 6140 & 6189 Support 6112

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again broken below 6140, and now the move seems like an a-b-c. So Possible corrective upmove likely till 6189 as shown on chart. Else fall to continue.

>>> ULTRACEMCO <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Long in Ultra Tech Cement form 1680-85. Part Profit done for Rs. 5000. Clear break out on chart shows further upmove. Lets See.

Resistance 6140-6150

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Expect some consolidation if trades above 6140. Else the fall to continue.


>>> Apollo Hospital <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Sell Apollo Hospital - More Fall Coming.

6130 Should Hold

Dear All,

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6130 if holds then bounce back possible. Else fall till 6080 and then to bounce. RBI day and Fed Meeting going to make us more thrilled this week. Lets Wait for it.

>>> LT - As Updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened<<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Huge Profit of nearly 24500 in Just 3 trading days.

>>> Andhra Bank - As updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Fell down sharply and hit my Target as given with a profit of Rs.16000. HOpe all made a big profit.

>>> Century Tex - As given last weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Hit 285 with a profit of 28000.

>>> JPAssociates <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Sell Triggered at 46-45.50 and touched a Low of 39.75. Mega Jackpot call of the day with a profit of nearly 44000. Hip Hip Hurray...

Weekly Review - 27.01.2014

Dear All,

Dow plunges 318 points; drops 3.5% for the week

The Dow is down almost 500 points over the past two days as investors pull out of stocks and emerging markets and stash money in safer assets like bonds.

Slowing growth in China and a move by the Federal Reserve to start cutting back on its easy-money policies has caused problems in many emerging economies, where currencies have come under intense selling pressure, raising fears of economic problems caused by rising inflation and capital outflows.

On Thursday, the Argentine peso plunged 15% versus the U.S. dollar, its biggest swoon since 2002. Similarly the Turkish lira hit a record low vs. the U.S. greenback.

Fears of an economic slowdown in emerging markets is forcing U.S. investors to reassess the amount of earnings U.S. multinational companies will get from abroad this year. The potential for less profit from abroad is also weighing on U.S. stocks.

Investors are also more willing to take profits after a stellar 2013 for U.S. stocks, given the current uncertainty roiling markets.


>>> NIFTY - As Update Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last week that it might be an end of Wave 2. In such a case a big fall not ruled out.


>>> Happened & Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes the suspect is still On for a Big downside. We need confirmation as the price should break the channel given on chart. If breaks then a deep fall should set in.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Monday if there is a gap down opening due to a heavy 300 pts fall on dow, Nifty might break the channel support as i have marked on chart. Next Support comes from 6150, break below this support may confirm further fall.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last week Bank Nifty unable to cross the Lower channel of the Pitchfork. See what happened this week.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes once again failed to cross over - indicates another caution note for us.

>>> LT <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

LT booked first target. More fall coming next week.

>>> CENTURYTEX <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes shorted at 313-315. More fall next week.

>>> ANDHRA BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have shorted Andhra Bank too.

>>> Performance <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Marching

Dear All,

>>> Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nothing to comment...

6373 To decide.

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

No doubt many are tiered in Nifty. Yes the movement becoming more and more complicated with heavy volatile and choppy. I have been advising Short for many many days. So now the above chart - 6373 should be the Stop loss for your shorts. If cross above may give further upmove and the counts become invalid. Else fall should start. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty Resistance 11337. Lets See..

Resistance Still on 6323 & 6335

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A-B-C-D-E still On.

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above 5 min chart suggest a-b-c corrective upmove, which faces resistance at 6323 and 6335. Lets See.

Still a Sell on Rise - Resistance 6306,6323 & 6335

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Given above is a 5 mins chart. Since the movements are becoming very complicated and volatile - its necessary for us to give a clear picture and using the 5 mins chart.

Today upmove shall be an a-b-c and hence the resistance 6306 if crossed, then we may see 6323 and 6335 - which i feel once again as a sell on rise.

>>> Indusindbk - Missed Call <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Our Short hit SL with a loss of Rs.8000. Earlier advised to book part profit for small traders are 420 for a profit of Rs.5000. So its a Missed Call.

Weekly Review 20.01.2014

Dear All,

Markets surged 1.5% in the volatile week ended January 17 led by rate sensitive shares after the sharp decline in December WPI raised hopes that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain status quo on key policy rates. However, the broader markets witnessed profit taking after gains in the previous weeks underperforming the benchmark indices.

Most of the gains were seen in earlier part of the week supported by global cues after weaker-than-expected US jobs data increased the probability that the US Fed may not increase the quantum of stimulus cuts.

The wholesale inflation declined to a five-month low in December on lower vegetable prices. WPI-based inflation stood at 6.16% from 7.52% a month ago, as per the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This is the first time since May that headline inflation has declined from the previous month. In November, the WPI inflation was at a 14-month high

Key Events to Watch Next Week :-

HDFC, L&T, Cairn India, Asian Paints and UltraTech Cement will be some of the major companies announcing their third quarter earnings.

FII investment trends will also be in focus as they have remained net buyers of nearly Rs 1,600 crore in January so far.

The movement of the rupee against the US dollar will also be on the radar of market participants.

Caution is also likely to prevail ahead of the RBI's policy review on Jan. 28.

Metal shares are set to take their cue from China's Q4 GDP on Monday.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After hitting 6346 high on 16th Jan - Nifty fell down to hit a low of 6246 on 17th Jan 2014. As marked on chart it seems like wave 2 completed. The fall should be fast only if breaks below 6140-50. As said last week, I still advice more caution on Nifty - as I feel that this may be a beginning of a big or deep correction.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As said above if 6140-6150 holds then bounce back possible as there is an bullish alternative like a-b-c-d-e pattern. So important to watch the level.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty shows a clear reversal from the pitchfork lower channel - Since RBI policy on 28th Jan, its more important to watch banking sector. If unable to cross the lower channel - fall may continue.

>>> Ultracemco - As Updated on 15th Jan - 2013 <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ultracemco gave on 15th Jan - see what happened.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes We booked at 1750.

>> Performance <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Can't Hold above 6341

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A-B-C-D-E formation - looks like E on the downside to start.

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wait for the first weakness..

Resis - 6341 - 6358 - 6381

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wave B on the move. Extending as a-b-c. So lets wait for the Resistance to decide.

>>> ULTRACEMCO <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ultra Tech - We are long form 1672 onwards. Made a High of 1720. Lets See.

Not crossing 6188

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

World market in deep red, Nifty managed with a minor loss of 20 to 30 pts with high volatile and choppy session. 6232 a minor support and 6188 resisted.

Resistance 6188 & 6323

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After last week - Friday's sudden fall - today's upmove surprised every one. Its wave B upmove - making an a-b-c correction. Now as per chart given above - I guess 6288,6310 and 6323 are the key resistance. Wave b should complete here and then should fall for Wave c. Downside target should be 6100 and 6050.

>>> ARVIND <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After a Part Profit in Arvind - Hit SL at 152. Closed the trade with Loss.