Weekly Review :- 12.05.2014

Dear All,

Nifty surprise with a 200+ Rally on friday, earlier than expected rally surprised all.

The TV interview of Narendra Modi on Thursday, in which he exuded confidence that the BJP would win with a clear majority and form the strongest and most stable government since Rajiv Gandhi's time, would have pumped up the sentiment. And on a day when the markets were on a tear, the VIX also raced ahead by a whooping 11% to 38 points, in what marks a surprising departure from the traditional inverse relationship between market direction and volatility index.

"It seems like Dalal Street expects good margin win in the upcoming elections results next week for Mr Modi," said A K Prabhakar, Independent Market Expert. And, the exit poll results due on Tuesday will throw more light as to where the election results are headed, he added.

"Market seems to have factored in an NDA government coming in with around 250 seats I would think with expectations of maybe slightly higher number. So let us wait and see what the exit polls have to say," said Sanjeev Prasad, Senior Executive Director & Co-Head, Kotak Institutional Equities.

"Let's say if you see NDA government getting 230-250 seats, I do not think we will see much of a reaction in the market. But, if let's say NDA gets to 270 plus seats on its own and is in a position to form the next government on majority basis without any support of any other regional parties, then really it is going to be positive and maybe the market will go up 5-7 per cent," he added.

Analysts advise caution ahead of the main event next week as the event risk is too high while fundamentals are yet to play a catch-up. The last two national elections in 2004 and 2009 saw markets hitting the circuit limits when trading was halted on the day of the poll results.

"The market has already run up in anticipation of whatever the election results might throw up on the 16th. The exit polls on the evening of May 12 would likely be one of the triggers," said Nipun Mehta, Blue Ocean Capital Advisors

So lets move to Technical's.

>>> NIFTY - MONTHLY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above Monthly Chart reveals a clear Break on Price and RSI. No doubt market in a Pure Bull Grip. Lets see what the other Time frames suggest.

>>> NIFTY - Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Weekly Chart suggest sub wave (II) completed and friday upmove seems like sub wave (III) started. Break above the Channel may confirm the trend.

>>>> NIFTY - Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As said on Weekly Chart - Daily chart needs more confirmation for a healthy upmove, should cross the channel.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Clear break out seen on Bank Nifty. Hope more upside left.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty Hourly Chart shows clearly how the Bulls worked so far.

>>> Chart of the Week <<<

>>> HDFC Bank As updated on 06th May 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 06th May that HDFC bank ready for Upmove and we are long in that also..

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Friday HDFC Bank hit all our target with a Profit of Rs.20,000.

>>> ULTRACEMCO <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Ultra Tech hit our both target intraday itself with a Profit of 12500 or 100 Pts.

>>> IDFC - As Updated on 06th May 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last 2 weeks we are advising long to our clients. We have also wrote in this blog about IDFC. See what happened on friday.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

IDFC made a good break out on chart as given above. We expect more bounce from here.

>>> DISH TV <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Dish TV - Looking for more upmove. We made a Profit of Rs.8000. Lets See.

>>> Essar Oil <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Essar Oil - We are Long since 63 and price made a high of 70 on friday. Still more upmove pending.

>>> Escorts <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Escort - if the support holds - expect rally.

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

6640 Supporting

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6640 support now. Still no direction ahead of election results. 6620 and 6580 on the downside may help bull to regain strength. Lets wait and see.

Support 6640,6620 and 6580

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6640 broken today and next support @ 6620 and 6580. Lets See.

Support @ 6703

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Choppy market today also. Means - directionless ahead of election results. Will it continue till May 15th is a unknown question of the moment.
So as per chart 6702-6703 remains a support of a small triangle like, if holds the support may get tested at 6760. Else may drift on the downside to test 6660 or 6640.

>>> HDFC Bank - As Updated on 30th April 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On 30th April we wrote HDFC is looking for an upmove, Lets see what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we continue to remain long in this counter as per levels given here. Since the bottom channel as shown on chart breaks, Upmove intact.

>>> Wipro - As Updated on 29th April, 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote about wipro that - it may come down before an upmove. See what happened ?

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As expected wipro came down and tested the channel line as shown on chart. Now if holds the line then expect a good bounce from here.

>>> IDFC <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

IDFC - As we have discussed on a weekly reivew - If I'm not wrong - then its a good bet if holds above 107.50. We are long in this counter. Lets See.

Cat on a Wall !?!?!?

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty on a dilemma with a upper side resistance of 6740 and 6760 and with a support on the lower side of 6660 and 6640.

>>> Jindal Steel <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are long in this counter with a Partial Profit booked. Expect a good or big bounce if price doesn't break the channel support as given on chart. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 05.05.2014

Dear All,

Valid only till 05th May, 2014.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Daily chart with a bearish view - More comments on chart.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart with a Bullish view - more comments on chart.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break below the channel may trigger a fall. Lets wait and see.

>>> Chart's of the Week <<<

>>> Coal India - As Updated Last week <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hit a low of 289 and booked 10,000 Profit. As per above chart if unable to cross 50hr moving average or the channel - fall to continue.

>>> Emami - As Updated on 19th Apr, 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Second target achieved, looking for the third one.

>>> HDFC Bank - As Updated on 30th Apr 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

HDFC Bank looking for an Upmove.

>>> Wipro - As Updated on 29th Apr 2014<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wipro should move as per chart given here.

>>> Dr.Reddy <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Dr.Reddy hit our Target and Booked Profit also.

>>> DLF <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We don't have any position in DLF, We may or may have next week. Expect a good bounce if the support holds, else may fall if breaks the support as given.

>>> INFY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Infy showing a good break. RSI had a good break out with a lot of positive divergence. Cheers!!!

>>> Performance <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Happy AKSHAYA TRITIYA - Celebrate with N4A Offer !!!

Dear All,

No more Extension after 05th May, 2014. Interested must send an email to confirm their willingness. Best Wishes!!!

Support @ 6660 & 6630

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Finally nifty fell down and touched the line as I was writing these for this entire week. Now we have 2 alternatives on the above chart.

First the current move can be defined as an a-b-c-d-e type correction for Sub wave 4. All those are marked on yellow color on chart.

Else we might have completed Wave 1 and 2 as marked with white color numbers.

In either cases Nifty may move up, provided it must hold the support mentioned on chart. 6660, 6630 and 6590 should hold on friday for a good move in coming days. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Said Yesterday - Bank Nifty should test the channel. See what happened

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Touched the channel as written yesterday, now expect a good bounce from here.

>>> HDFC Bank <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we are again Long in HDFC bank - Expect a good Upmove soon. Cheers!!!

Get Ready for Exit Poll Rally !!!

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote Yesterday 6680 may test for Sub wave 4. So market corrected today also and may find support near 6680 for a possible Exit Poll rally soon. Get Ready.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty also on sub wave 4. Lets See.

>>> Wipro <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wipro may correct possibly and may rebound from the channel given on chart. We are long and booked partial today. Lets See.


>>> HINDUNILVR <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We exited our long when the channel support broken with a loss of 2500.

Next Support @ 6680

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty forming an a-b-c-d-e and may take support @ 6680. If breaks then fall to resume.

>>> Dr.Reddy - As Updated on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on last weekly review - More upside left, See what happened.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Booked today on first Target.

>>> Coal India <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Coal India if breaks the channel or 50 HMA then fall to continue. We hold short from 300 and part booked @ 295. Lets See.

Weekly Review - 28.04..2014

Dear All,

It looks like market may or need to correct as the modi wave getting dimmer.

A Reuters poll showed that probability of strong economic rebound are dim regardless of election outcome as industry remains weak.

Another issue is Monsoon rainfall in India this year is likely to be below average and there is a 60 percent chance that El Nino will affect farm output and economic growth, the weather office said Thursday.

So what is mean by El Nino ????

El Nino - a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific - affects wind patterns and can trigger both floods and drought in different parts of the globe, curbing food supply.

The worst El Nino on record in 1997-98 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river that killed more than 1,500 people.

El Nino means "boy" in Spanish and was first used by anchovy fishermen in Ecuador and Peru in the 19th century.

The disruptive weather phenomenon El Nino could shave as much as 75 basis points off the country’s economic output as a hit on agriculture could cause the central bank to delay cutting interest rates.

So the question now is Will it derail Modi rally on Dalal Street post polls and also now; and by how much?

"Bad monsoon will lead to only a slight correction as our valuations are attractive unlike the US and other markets," says market analyst AK Prabhakar

"If it (El Nino) happens, it'll lead to higher inflation which will result in no rate cuts from the RBI going ahead. This will have only some impact on the stock market. How much the impact will be can only be said once final picture on El Nino comes out," says Gurang Shah, vice-president, Geojit BNP Paribas

>>> Nifty - Weekly <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So if you are a regular reader of this blog, then you must understand the above chart. Almost for many weeks warned about the possible end of rally.

Last week Hanging man may be a Warning and followed by a Inverted Hammer should be a confirmation for a fall.

Strongly advising Caution.

>>> Nifty - Daily <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As per above chart I feel 1-5 upmove almost completed. Negative Divergence on RSI also confirming the bearishness. So daily chart also advising caution.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have seen a lot on Daily and weekly chart on Bank Nifty in past weeks. So Posting the Hourly chart. As it seems like Bank Nifty completed its 1-5 upmove. Hence a break below the channel may trigger a fall.

>>> Stock Performance for the Week <<<

>>> BIOCON <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>>> IDFC - As on 21st Apr, 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> IDFC - As Updated on 23rd Apr 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> IDFC - So what's Next <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So after getting a Banking Licence, IDFC continues to slide. I heard that many are long after the news break out and met a loss after that.

The reason for the fall is many long term investors started selling their shares for the following reasons.

1.IDFC will be impacted in the short term in order to comply with regulatory provisions such as maintaining SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio), CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) and compulsorily giving loans as per the priority sector lending (PSL) which are both riskier and of low yields.

2.Operational costs of IDFC will go up as it will have to open branches in Tier–5/6 cities which will be a costly affair and low yielding as raising sizeable deposits from such cities will be a difficult task.

3.In an increasing competitive scenario, IDFC will face execution risk in acquiring and retaining talent as well as training the existing staff to perform banking functions.

4.Increasing competition will also make it difficult for IDFC to scale its asset/liabilities base. Edelweiss believes that it will take IDFC at least 4-6 years to ramp up their operations. Edelweiss feels that these measures would bring down IDFCs Return on Equity (RoE) to sub-10 per cent levels which in any case is a modest 14 per cent.

5.But the most important point as far as investors are concerned is that IDFC will have to bring down and cap its FII holding to 49 per cent from the present level of 53.5 per cent. If some of these FIIs refuse to sell in the market then IDFC will be compelled to go in for an equity dilution to the extent of 7-8 per cent. This would further lower the Return on Equity (RoE).

So whats next - Technically I feel good time ahead soon. Ignoring the above factors - I feel its a good bet in short to longer terms. Details Only to our Subscribers.

>>> HDFC Bank - As updated on 22nd Apr, 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Hdfc Bank - As Updated on 23rd Apr, 2014 <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Dr-Reddy <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Performance <<<