Can Friday Hold 5400 - Nifty

Dear All,

There are some queries after Yesterday's Post. Why did I turn Bearish when the News are Positive and Optimistic from Global and Domestic.

First Euro Issue is getting resolved.

After German Verdict - the worries are eased. But the Light is far away - tunnel is longer enough to reach it. Actually Euro faces many crisis which need many solutions for solving it. Reacting for any Positive Like news is very common in Stock Market. Only time has the answer.

Secondly RBI is ready to cut Rates.????

Post IIP Data which has worry on India Inc Increased further as fourteen of the 22 industry groups that make up the manufacturing index - the biggest constituent of the IIP - reported a fall, pushing it into its second straight month of decline.

"There is urgent need for policy action from the government to address the deterioration in fiscal deficit and persistent pullback in private investment. In the event of continued inaction from the government, we see high risk of a potential 'deeper macro stress' scenario," said Morgan Stanley economists in a note.

So RBI to meet on monday to decide the monetary policy, even though many Banks are crying for a rate cut, economist still believe that RBI may hold the rates for the fifth time also.

Actually Nifty is moving up on expectation that RBI may cut Rates. Any disappointment may lead to a Big Fall this time, as the Data's are continuously Negative, Fall in corporate results and Poor strength of the Banks.

So How far the Issue is Bad ???? Yes its Poorer than what we think. Read below..

1) HSBC has cut India's growth to 5.2% from its Previous forecast of 6.2%. It also stated that RBI's Policy as one of the reason for slow down in growth.

2) Bank of America Merrill Lynch says loan growth in India is likely to hit 14-year low, which is bad news for the economy. In spite of RBI refused to cut rates, Banks have reduced the Interest rates - which may impact their Balance sheet in FY13-14. PSU Bank may be worst affected.

3) On going Inflation is much above RBI's predication of 5%. It may even get increase due to Rise in Petrol, Diesel, LPG etc by govt. As Govt facing a big Problem on Fiscal Deficit, it may free the Prices soon. The rise in Global Crude indicates that Govt has no other choice.

After all if RBI is holding rates only for Inflation - does it get succeeded. The answer is NO.

It shows that Govt has no control over the issue.

Last Session in Parliament - India Saw what game was played between Govt and Opposition. No Useful Reforms or Bills Passed.

So lets wait till Monday what Happens...

>>> NIFTY <<<

>click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty facing it resistance near 5448, previous high. The chart shows a "V" shapped recovery - Rise is only on the basis of Expectations.

As said 5458 & 5490 is a Stiff Resistance. Support are 5420, 5390, 5358 and 5310. Below 5310 Nifty may try to fill the gap till 5260 as showed on chart. Tomorrow is a Weak end, Lets get ready to enjoy the thrilling day ahead. Cheers!!!

Nifty - Where is Nifty Going??? With Bull or to Hell ???

Dear All,

IIP Growth was 0.01% in July and manufacturing sector contracting 0.2% during the month, and 0.6% in the first four months of 2012-13 and so there will be a high level meeting tomorrow between central government, state government and industry representatives in order to revive the sector.

After Germany's court allowed the country to ratify the euro-area bailout fund with certain conditions, Asia and Europe Jumped followed by Our Market too.

>> Click the Chart to See on Full Screen <<

Above Nifty Daily Chart has broken the Long term trend line. Due to Rate Cut hope from RBI, European Developments and QE3 Hopes from US - Lift the Sentiment today.

Note that even though there are some Negative divergence a weak before - We stayed on the Long Side in many stocks - got hand some returns too.

At the same time We missed to make profit in Axis and ICICI Bank - where we exited with small profit - which fell as per my expectation too.

>Click the Chart to see it on full screen <

Though Nifty running Bullish due to flow of good news or on expectation of good news like CRR Cut etc., etc., I shall advice caution at this stage. Today we have closed all our Long positions and made NIL. Tommorrow 5448.6 which is a Previous High on 23rd Aug may remain as a Resistance.

Above Chart is an Leading Diagonal Triangle - which consist of a-b-c-d-e. Right now we are on the end of e wave formation - 5490 Nifty spot is going to be a trend decider.

>Click the chart to see on full Screen>

Above Hourly Chart - contains only after friday gap up. Since today closed above 5230 - Tomorrow I hope there can be some gap up and may faces resistance at 5459 & 5490. Eventually every where 5490 should be a Trend decider, as I hope Nifty may try to reverse from there. What I mean is a Bearish Reversal or to say it like a "FALL". I don't know how RBI is going to react on its Monetary Policy, What FED is going to announce on its QE3 Hopes, What S&P going to do about India's Rating Decision.

For be Chart says "BE CAUTIOIUS" -

Lets wait for the Interesting days ahead.

>> Performance <<

>Click the above sheet to see in full screen<

Since we are at nil Position - publishing this month so far Profit which stood at Rs.50,275.

Cheers!!!

Will Nifty Cross 5400??

Dear All,

As wrote Yesterday Nifty took support near 5333 and able to rally 5393.

As Shown on chart - Nifty ended sub wave 4 in a short node and started 5th sw. Now 5380 act as a support, lower channel of the raising wedge. 5413,5430 and 5460 act as a Targeted Resistance. A Fresh Buy signal on MACD suggest that the Rally is still ON and has a Potential to reach out till 5450 or 5490 as well.

>>> CROMPTON GREAVES <<< FOLLOW UP

Earlier we had a Buy call on Crompton Greaves at 106. cmp:111. As our Clients are still Holding it with a Profit of Rs.10,000/- (lot size 2000), Stock is taking too much time and consolidating also.

Now stock is facing a stiff Resistance at 112.35 - as marked with an arrow on the chart. Cross above may show 117 and 120 in few Hours.

I suggest even a Fresh entry above 112.35 for a given Target. Support at 110.30 & 109.50 as Stop Loss on Closing basis - All Cash Levels

Lets Wait for it. Cheers!!!

Are Bulls Tired ???

Dear All,

After Europe Based rally on Friday, its FOMC turn.

All eyes are on the Fed monetary policy meeting this week and due to the fact that last Friday's NFP report was rather disappointing, with only 96000 jobs added (considerably below forecasts of 130000). Consequently, expectations for a third round of QE to be introduced at the upcoming meeting have increased.

The final Outcome may be on Friday after 2 days of meeting.

>>> NIFTY <<<

> Click the Chart to see on full screen <

After a big gap up Opening on Friday - and followed by the consolidation today - it seems - Bulls are little bit tired.

Now as marked with arrow mark on chart 5350 plays an important support, if breaks then may test the following support - 5343 / 5327 & 5310.

If 5310 Breaks, then Nifty may try to fill the gap left at 5240 on Chart.

Lets Wait and See. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 08.09.2012

Dear All,

The ECB's announcement on Thursday that it is prepared to make unlimited bond purchases in order to lower borrowing costs for countries in crisis could mark a turning point in the euro crisis. German commentators, however, criticize the bank for becoming a hostage to politics.

Jens Weidmann, head of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, and a prominent member of the ECB Governing Council, has been vocally opposed to restarting bond purchases. He was the only member of the ECB's 22-member Governing Council to vote against the decision on Thursday.

Some of the elements of the new program appear to be designed to assuage German concerns. For example, the ECB will only assist countries that appeal for help to the euro bailout fund and submit to the required austerity conditions. Draghi also indicated that any bond purchases would be counteracted by measures to ensure that the money supply in the euro zone remains stable in order to avoid inflation, a top concern in Germany.

So it very Clear that German is Not happy with Dhragi's decision to Purchase Bonds. So there can be a Twist and Turns in coming days which may rock the world market once again.

Back Home fuel prices won't be increased immediately, sources say government has no other option but go for an across-the-board hike. Thus prices of petrol, diesel, LPG cylinder and kerosene will be increased.

Market experts still believe the government will consider hike in petrol or diesel prices soon, though Minister of State and Oil said the prices of diesel would not go up in near future.

However key UPA ally Trinamool Congress on Thursday said it will oppose any fuel price hike.


>>>NIFTY<<<

> Click the chart to see on Full Screen<

If you have read my Post for last one week, then you won't get surprised for the rally on friday. Finally the Trend line support worked out and Nifty rallied for more than 100 Points in a single day. As Per Chart attached above 5342 is an Important Resistance. But on Saturday Trade Nifty able to closed at 5358 should be noted. So next week if Nifty able to hold 5342 then 5448.6 shall be the Next Resistance which is the Recent High.


>>>BANK NIFTY<<<

Last two Week have wrote about the Bank Nifty - Cautioned our Readers that Bank Nifty may fall Badly.

As per attached chart - Now it seems Bank Nifty is on the Path of Recovery. Bank Nifty able to cross important Resistance 10130. Next Resistance shall be 10228, 10272 & 10325.

>WEEKLY CHARTS FOLLOW UP<

>>>AXIS BANK<<<

Chart given on 31st Aug, 2012

>Click the chart to see on full screen< Happened till 07th Sep, 2012

>Click the Chart to See on Full Screen< Warned about Axis Bank Break down on 01st Sep near 990 level. Stock melted down to 927 on 05th Sep. But We unfortunately missed to encash it as we covered our Shorts earlier with mild Profit. Refer our Performance Sheet below for the same. Now as per 2nd Chart on Axis - its time for a Relief Rally - hence forth it may rally up to 1020 to 1035 in next week.

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

Profit Booked & Un-booked remains at 41625 for the first Week of Sep,2012.
We had 3 more weeks remaining. Lets See.


>>> CHART OF THE WEEK <<< >>> AUROPHARMA <<<

>Click the chart to see in full screnn<

So whats running Auro Pharma for the Last 2 Days :-

Aurobindo Pharma gets US nod for anti-hypertension pills
Annual sales of these capsules stood at nearly $500 million for the twelve months ending March 2012

The company has received final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Amlodipine Besylate and Benazepril Hydrochloride capsules.

As per News and Chart - Auro Pharma had a convincing Break Out above 118 and We had a Buy call at 122. Refer Our Performance Sheet above. On Saturday it reached 131. Stock had a Resistance betwen 131 and 135, where it may consolidate and move up for a Potential Target of 150 in Short Span of time.

Draghi - All about Bonds

Dear All,

The ECB chief Mario Draghi tries to keep his Promise of Saving Euro Zone. At present he want to Help the struggling economies Spain & Italy - by bringing down the borrowing cost by Purchasing the Bonds.

I feel tomorrow world equity market depends on Draphi's plan and how it was accepted or agreed by Policy makers in over all. Spanish and Italian government bond yields have fallen significantly since Draghi said on August 2 that the ECB would buy bonds issued by Madrid and Rome.

Coming back to India, much awaited puzzle of Hike in Petrol, Diesel and LPG is nearing to an end, it seems Prices may be hiked. Due to chances of Rating Downgrade I feel this time the Govt may hike all these to tackle the Fiscal Deficit. Since festival seasons are nearing - rise in these items may impact on Festival sales too. Also inflation may also shoot up.

In the 12th 5 Year Plan, Panel has decided to lower annual average GDP from 9% to 8.2%

Finally Monsoon rains were 31 percent above average in the week to September 5, the weather office said on Thursday, the second straight week of heavier than normal rains, reducing the threat of a prolonged drought in the country. Finally a reason to smile.

>Click the chart to see in full screen<

Looking at Nifty Chart - took support on the Trend Line and raised, but failed to give a breakout above the channel shows that the threat is still on.

Not made any EW count - as changing it again and again is meaningless. Lets wait for the clear picture to emerge. Lets the week end give us a clear picture atleast. cheers!!!

Nifty - On Trend Line Support

Dear All,

Bank Stocks are the more Beaten up Stocks in todays Trade.

I hope every one remember what i have given on weekly Update for Bank Nifty and Axis Bank, Click the below Link so see the same

http://niftyforall.blogspot.in/2012/09/weekly-review-01-sep-2012.html


Nifty cant sustain above 5239 due to weakness in Bank Stocks and Metal Stocks. Losing scope for CRR cut, Fitch and Morgan downgraded Indian Banks - hit the street.

HSBC PMI index rose to 55.0 in August form 54.2 in July failed to cheer the market.

Trend line Support - if Breaks may be a real damage to Bulls, if Holds then a relief rally possible. Today Night ECB meet may decide the trend for tomorrow. Lets wait and see. Cheers

Nifty - Ready for Relief Rally ??

Dear All,

European stock markets dropped on Tuesday, after Moody’s Investors Service warned that the European Union could lose its Aaa debt rating, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to activate stimulus measures.

Back Home Nifty ended near 5274, Lets see whats Next..

As i was keeps on Saying Nifty should bounce for sw(2). Previously 5239 was the Support and even though it breached today managed to recover and close above it, due to irregular abc pattern. So lets wait for the Relief Rally for 5350+++

S&P Warns India's Downgrade Likely !!!

Dear All,

Takahira Ogawa, director of sovereign ratings at S&P, said high interst rates, deficit and inflation were impacting the country's growth, saying that he did not expect Q2 GDP growth to rebound. Subsidy Issue is really going to be a Problem for India due to forth coming Election in 2013.

Next Important Alert - As I advised Our Clients to cover Shorts today is due to..

Postpone GAAR by three years, says Shome panel

In a major boost to falling investments and investor sentiment in the India growth story, a committee set up by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has suggested deferment of the controversial GAAR for three years and abolition of capital gains tax on transfer of securities, a practice adopted by many Western countries.


The committee, headed by Parthasarathi Shome, has also recommended that GAAR be applicable only if the monetary threshold of tax benefit is Rs 3 crore or more.

Tax experts have welcomed the recommendation on capital gains tax on foreign institutional investors and non-resident Indians, saying it will ultimately help in growth of Indian economy, which has slowed down in the last few quarters because investments have been held back due to India’s rigid tax laws.

Lets wait for the announcement sooner in this week itself.


Government unlikely to cancel all coal blocks allocation

Union parliamentary affairs minister Pawan Bansal on Sunday categorically denied that the government would cancel allocation of coal blocks in the wake of the Coalgate scam.

As the Opposition kept on demanding Cancellation of All coal Blocks and Resignation of Manmohan singh, Coal ministry sources says - its not an Easy task to cancel all coal Blocks

>>> NIFTY <<<

>Click the chart to see in full screen <

As long as bottom of wave (1) 5239 is on hold - Chances for Nifty to bounce from here is very high. As shown on chart 5290 & 5320 remains as a Targeted Resistance.

>>CROMPTON GREAVES<<

>Click the chart to see in full screen <

Crompton Greaves ended its 1-5 wave downside shows that its ready for an upmove. 105.50 is a support for now - as shown on chart - looks like a double bottom unless it breaks in a day or two. If this support holds then an upmove upto 117 is not far away from here. Lets see!!!

Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 01-Sep-2012

Dear All,

On 28th Aug - Have given the Bank Nifty Chart and said the Break down of a Symmetrical Triangle - as give below..

>> BANK NIFTY <<

>Click chart to see in full screen <

As per Bank Nifty shown 9948 on Friday - Since no major changes on chart - not posting any updated chart.


Apart from Technical lets see some fundamental also.


Latest Report from CRISIL says that
Loan restructuring by banks could soar to Rs 3.25 lakh crore this fiscal against the earlier estimate of Rs 2 lakh crore. Indicates that 2012 is going to be challenging for banking Sector as a whole.


Most of the Public Sector Bank reported an Increase in NPA's and Provisions hurting their Profitability Badly.


Slowing economic growth and high interest rates have crimped the ability of many borrowers to repay their debts, causing bad loans to pile up at banks.


Many expected New FM PC may or will Cut the CRR when he took Charge of the Ministry, Now there is no Indication about it, Falling GDP and Inflation holding up on higher side indicates the Risk of Credit Crunch.


Fiscal deficit during April-July reached 51 per cent of the budgetary estimate of Rs 5.13 lakh crore, raising fears of the government breaching its fiscal deficit target of 5.1 per cent of GDP for the current year.


The renewed concerns will discourage the Reserve Bank of India from easing monetary policy and give the rating agencies reason to carry out their threat of downgrading India's sovereign rating to junk grade.


This shows the slowing growth is taking its toll on revenues while government was unable to rein in its expenditure.


All these above suggest that Economy and Banking Sector in Particular in Deep trouble.

>>>NIFTY<<<

>Click the chart to see in full screen <

Nifty completed sub wave(1) down and should bounce back for a corrective upmove. As given on chart - Pipe Bottom Pattern - On Candle Stick shows that an Interim downside in finished and a Bounce back for sw(2) is ON. Possible upmove shall be 5330 to 5350.

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

Attached is the Peformance for the Month End of August 2012. We did a profit of Rs.1,30,000. All levels mentioned here are Cash levels and advised to execute trade on Futures. Stop Loss on Closing basis and Some Exit may have advised earlier.

Cash required is atleast 2 lakhs - Maximum of 2-3 Position shall be carried out at a time.

Red Colored are Stop Loss hit and Loss is deducted from the total Profit.

WEED END STOCK :-

AXIS BANK :-

> Click the chart to see on Full Screen <

Axis Bank - after consolidating for more than 4 months - finally Axis Bank has given a Break down. 984 is a Support, break below may test 940 & 898.

Head & Shoulder - Nifty ???

Dear All,

As Said Yesterday Nifty Bounced today - till 5340 - Lets see What I said..

Happened today :-

Cheers!!!

Nifty below 5290 - ????

Dear All,

Nifty breached the second support 5290 also. So whats Interesting here is Will it fall further or a relief like rally possible???

Yes, Possibly as given on chart. If tomorrow 5290 held then a bounce upto 5350 which can be like a Head & Shoulder like formation - which i feel more bearish in coming days. Else 5240 is the Next Support - as (iii) wave is going to be extension in nature, going to be more complicated and chappy, which may again kill many Nifty Option traders in Next Series also.

It seems like FII's also started their selling in Derivative segment - tomorrow's expiry is going to be very Interesting.

>>>> FOLLOW UP <<<< >>> CHAMBAL FERTILIZER <<<

Above Chart was given on 04th of August on Weekly Stock - wrote that it can reach 63-64 level soon.

Target 63 Achieved Today. Lot size is 4000


>>> HAVELLS <<<

Havells made a Head & Shoulder Break down - Our Clients are Holding Havells Positional trade. Lets see

Nifty below 5350.

Dear All,

>>> NIFTY <<<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

After breaking the trend line - Nifty moving with Extension waves and Lot of choppy indicates the Indecision and I Hope only the Support and Resistance can guide us. As Nifty has broken the Important support 5350, next level is 5290. Lets See.

>>> BANK NIFTY <<<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Bank Nifty seems like a Symmetrical Triangle Break down - Signals a Bearish and Heavy Sell off is Possible. I advice extreme Caution in Bank stocks - in Days to come. Bank Nifty have a Support at 9890 & 9678 - and I hope these Support may be tested in coming days.

>>>APOLLO TYRE <<<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

We had a Sell call in Apollo Tyres - as Shown on Chart - a Shooting Star or an Inverted Hammer on the top of the Chart shows that - Stock has been topped out and ready for a Fall. Break down below the Raising Wedge is an another Important Bear Phase of the Stock. Lets get ready to enjoy the Fall.

Cheers

Nifty at 5350 !!!

Dear All,

On Political front :-

Finance minister P Chidambaram on Friday got a huge relief from the Supreme Court as it dismissed Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy’s plea for a probe into his role in the 2G spectrum scam.

So Now its Coal Scam - to have New Twist and Turn inside and Out side Parliment :-

BJP Continued to disturb Parliament from its normal proceedings and demanding PM's Resignation and says no more discussion in this regard.

Rejecting the report of CAG on allocation of coal blocks during 2004-09 period, Manmohan Singh said that any allegations of impropriety were without basis and unsupported by facts.

BJP rejects PM's defence over coal scam, says money from allocation of blocks went to Congress party

PM should take moral responsibility of coal allocation scam and resign: BJP

So finally it seems Govt may bring confidence motion next week.

>>> NIFTY <<<

> Click the Chart to see in Full Screen << Nifty took support at 5350. Break below should fall upto 5290 as shown on chart. Confusion in Parliament + Nifty trend line break down lead to Bears Strength. Bulls unable to capitalize the Upmove above 5400 and if breaks and close below 5350 or 5290 then its a signal from bear that some thing worst is going to happen soon. Get ready for it.

>> Follow - Up - IDFC <<

On 17th August in our Weekly Review - IDFC was the Weekly Chart - told it may fall 137 & 132. Even though I have Exited IDFC Short cost to cost - due to its long consolidation with out Loss. Please verify the Performance sheet.

But today IDFC fell down and achieved the First Target as per my expectation - and attached chart below

Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 25.08.2012

20 GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADERS

1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.

2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.

3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool.

4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.

5. Don't buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.

6. Don't chase momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to the door, you're in big trouble.

7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.

8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.

9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with the money flow.

10. If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts.

11. Sell the second high, buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks, the first test of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the break on the third or fourth try.

12. The trend is your friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't expect anyone to change the channel.

13. Avoid the open. They see YOU coming sucker

14. 1-2-3-Drop-Up. Look for downtrends to reverse after a top, two lower highs and a double bottom.

15. Bulls live above the 200 day, bears live below. Sellers eat up rallies below this key moving average line and buyers to come to the rescue above it.

16. Price has memory. What did price do the last time it hit a certain level? Chances are it will do it again.

17. Big volume kills moves. Climax blow-offs take both buyers and sellers out of the market and lead to sideways action.

18. Trends never turn on a dime. Reversals build slowly. The first sharp dip always finds buyers and the first sharp rise always finds sellers.

19. Bottoms take longer to form than tops. Fear acts more quickly than greed and causes stocks to drop from their own weight.

20. Beat the crowd in and out the door. You have to take their money before they take yours, period.

Are You an Emotional Trade :-

A Picture Better than 1000 Words as given below

Greed and Fear = Emotions

The fear factor will increase after every losing trade and the greed factor pops up after winners.

Very few traders are content with the results of every trade, they always think they could have won more on winners and reduced the amount on losers.

Fear and greed, will play extraordinary tricks with your emotions but only through self control and discipline will you be able to control them.

More Greed will lead to Uncontrolled Limits means ...

>>> NIFTY - DAILY CHART <<<

> Click the chart to see in full screen < I think no need to describe the attached Daily Chart - Retraced Exactly 78.6% at 5446. An IHS pattern Break out followed by a break down on trend line doubts the IHS break out - Possible failure may advantage to bears soon if Price comes below the Break out Line. Important Support at 5350 & 5288. Resistance at 5446.

>>> NIFTY - INTRADAY CHART <<<

>Click the chart to see in full screen<

Intraday Chart clearly shows the Trend line break down and shows how important 5377 is and possibility of filling gap mentioned on chart.

>>> IFCI <<<

>click the chart to see in full screen <

One should remember that I have given IFCI on weekly Chart few weeks before and cautioned about H&S on Chart. So friday triggered the Selloff and fell nearly 16% in a Single day. Now as per H&S IFCI should reach for a Target of 23-24 very soon.

>> PERFORMANCE <<

>>click the above picture to see in full screen <<

Above performance is upto 24th Aug-2012. Those who wish to Join with me - can ask me the details on my email id krish_venkatesh@yahoo.com.

Above performance is based on only Futures - Levels are provided on Cash basis. Both Entry and Exit will be advised.

One More Day with Nifty

Dear All,

Today also NDA and its allies stalled the Parliament, demanding PM's Resignation of Col-gate Report from CAG. A meeting called by Lok sabha speaker Meera Kumar was also boycotted by NDA / BSP and SP, Soon Mr. Ansari my Convene another meeting to end the dead lock. Third day also wasted in Parliament with out any Business as the Whole India Inc is looking for some Bills & Policies to get shaped in this Session atleast to boost the slowing Economy. Many Bills Including FDI in retail which the whole FII's where waiting for it.

At the same time UPA ally Trinamool Congress today strongly opposed allowing FDI in key sectors like retail, insurance and aviation arguing that it would be harmful for the people of the country.

All PSU Banks normal works get halted due to Strike called by All India Bank Employees' Association (AIBEA) due to reforms in the sector and outsourcing of non-core services to private sector.

When economy is facing a crucial Stage or Trouble all these above News are really dis-tubing in nature.

Going abroad - Federal Reserve sent its strongest signal that it is preparing new steps to bolster the economic recovery, saying measures would be needed fairly soon unless growth substantially and convincingly picks up. It shows that QE3 known for Bond Buying may once again in their Options.

In China PMI index for August fell to a nine-month low of 47.8 on a 100-point scale, dropping from July’s final print of 49.3.

Meanwhile Nifty closed in Green with 5.9 Point Plus. Shares Like Jet Airways, Spice Jet and KFA down nearly 5% after a Negative Statement from Mamthaji.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the Chart to see in full Screen <<<

As Nifty made a high of 5448 - unable to hold 5436 as i have mentioned it as a resistance level, closed at 5418 managed to stay inside the channel. MACD is signalling an alert as its not moving up with Price. So need confirmation on either side. At this stage balls may favour Bears, but better to stay in "NO TRADE ZONE" unless a break out or break down comes out of the market. Lets see.

>>> IDFC <<<

>>> Click the Chart to see in full Screen <<<

I have posed IDFC in Weekly Review. Now IDFC consolidate between 140-146 as it competed the last leg of Wave C. Today gave a Break down form the channel with Negative Divergence shows that Stock ready to slide any time - even tomorrow possibly. A Gap left on 137 should be the first Target. Lets See.

Nifty again closed above 5386!!!

Dear All,

Nifty able to Hold and close above 5400, Neglected all Negative European Cues. Nifty moved in between 30 Points for the entire day - followed by Telecom Stock and Sugar stocks worst hit. Bharti Airtel breaks the Important Low of 250 and 230 is the Next Support. Rcom took support at 54 and 53.40 is the Previous Low to watch, if broken then may fall to 47 and 42 sooner or later.

Coming back to Nifty - One Blog Reader asked in Yahoo messenger - Your Level 5386 crossed Yesterday and today also it seems Nifty unlikely to give up 5400 - So whats the Target on the Upper side. It seems quite Interesting that every one ask these same question - If one Patter or Level or count failed - Should I delete the current one and Jump and take Long Position. Or should I say - If I had a Short Position in Nifty - If Stop Loss hit and Should I Jump and take Long Position ???? Certainly Not.

Here comes the same view - Almost all the Indicators are Negative - Still Nifty Moving slightly Up or Holding with out Falling - But stocks are getting hammered every day - means - You should wait and watch - or Mark it as "NO TRADE ZONE" or Stick with your previous view that was taken already - with renewed Stop Loss -

Patience is the Best Medicine You need at this Point of Time. Wait for the exact Opportunity and trigger your next trade.

Lets wait and Watch - Cheers!!!

Nifty above 5386 ?

>> click the chart to see it on full screen <<

Nifty Moved and closed above 5386 as this is the level I was mentioning earlier in this blog several times. It seems like the trend is getting reverse in favour of Bulls.

At the same time - when the count says that the 5th wave of Last C leg is getting completed as marked on chart. As the upmove was like ABC - C almost retraced 127% of wave A at 5437 and 5th Leg of C wave has retraced upto 61.8% of entire three wave at 5428 as marked on chart as Resistance.

Since the MACD, RSI and most of the Other Indicators signalling a Negative outlook - I suspect these Pattern wise Break out may be a False one unless Nifty can able to close above 5386 for 1-2 days.

Lets wait for more clarity, as I assume that this is a No Trade or No Deciding Zone. Cheers!!!