NiftyforAll: Weekly Review

Sunday, October 08, 2017

Weekly Review - 09th Oct, 2017

Dear All,

The domestic equity market bounced back during the week gone by on the back of positive global clues, especially those emanating from the US. The massive tax rate cuts proposed on corporate earnings from 35 per cent to 20 per cent have raised hope of accelerated earnings growth in the US economy, the repercussions of which were felt on the rupee.

Relenting to public backlash due to high diesel and petrol prices, the government has finally reduced the fuel prices by Rs 2. Ironically, the diesel price is current hovering at an all-time high even though crude prices stood around the $60 mark, which is way below their peak price of $130 a barrel seen about a decade ago. This anomaly between all-time high diesel prices and low crude oil prices has caused a lot of anger among the public, forcing the government to respond positively at last.

GST :-

The Street could react to the latest developments that took place on the GST front post market hours on Friday. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on Friday cut rates on 27 items and 12 services, and approved sweeping changes in rules to soothe frayed nerves of millions of small enterprises and exporters that have been battling with procedural irritants, delayed refunds and technical glitches on returns filing. The Finance Minister Arun Jaitley-headed panel pushed for big changes in its 22nd meeting to iron out rough edges of the new tax system that has been hit by multiple pain points since it was rolled out on July 1.

The Council relaxed return filing rules for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), deferred the controversial reverse charge mechanism (RCM) till March 31, 2018, and hastened tax refunds for exporters battling cash crunch. Jaitley said that the annual turnover threshold on the composition scheme has been raised from Rs 75 lakh to Rs 1 crore.

Economic Data :-

The government next week will announce economic data such as index of industrial production (IIP) as well as CPI inflation. Manufacturing output, CPI and IIP data is expected on Thursday, October 11.

After lesser than expected GDP data and a weaker growth forecast, these data points become very crucial for the Street to take cues.

Global Events :-

Among larger global cues would be the minutes of the meeting held by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As such the US central bank has hinted at a rate hike this year, but the minutes would put further clarity on the direction which the bank is going to take, going forward.

Additionally, Japan would be declaring core machinery data, while US is set to declare core PPI data MoM and YoY basis. Additionally, US would also announce retail sales and CPI data.

Although this factor is already being considered by the Street, tensions between North Korea and US could also be in focus. Most recently, US President Donald Trump announced that the current situation was the calm before the storm.

Monsoon :-

A large part of the rally in the summers was on the back of hopes of good monsoon. While the country saw decent progress during monsoon, at the closure of the season, the country is set to see lower than expected rainfall.

The rainfall for southwest monsoon is 5 percent less than normal. “The distribution has been uneven, with excess rains in some parts and shortage in several other areas like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra,” The Indian Express reported.

Quarterly Results :-

The domestic equity market seems to be gearing up for the quarterly numbers to be announced from the beginning of next week. This quarter would be the toughest and most unexpected one, wherein no one will be able to estimate the quarterly scorecard precisely. The market will, therefore, be reactive in nature, which will result in huge volatility in stock prices. That being so, the premium for options would be high compared with that in the past.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

Posted on Last Weekly Review - Price to Rally. See what happened.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

Price almost rallied 300 Points last week alone. Now Crucial Resistance @ 9990 - If breaks above may test 10040 & 10070. Support @ 9950 - 9920 - 9875 - 9840.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

9990 - Crucial Resistance. Fail to cross above may test 9920 - 9875 - 9840.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

Wrote Price completed ABC for a bounce back.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

As expected Price holding the Channel Support.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Bank Nifty on a Make or break move. Above 24260 may rally, if breaks below 24000 may fall.

>>> CNX PSUBankNifty - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

Posted Last Weekly Review - PSU Bank Index may bounce back.

>>> CNXPSUBank - Daily Chart <<<

PSUBank Index closed above 3070 > More rally if breaks the Wedge. Watch all PSU Bank Stocks for Rally.

>>> SBIN - Hourly Chart - Ready to Rally <<<

We are Long and Expecting a Good bounce.

>>> CNXIT Daily Chart - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

Mentioned Support @ 10430, Not broken still.

>>> CNXIT - Daily Chart - Possible Break Out <<<

Above 10670-80 Good Short Covering and Rally on Card. Watch all IT Stocks.

>>> CNX-PHARMA - Hourly Chart - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

Wrote on last weekly review for a next round of rally till 9500.

>>> CNX-PHRAMRA - Hourly Chart <<<

More Rally in Pharma INdex and all Pharma Stocks. Pharma Index may rally till 9640 & 9800.

>>> Nifty - MIDCAP50 - Daily Chart <<<

More Rally ahead for MidCap Index. Support @ 4750. Resistance 4835 is Holds - May Rally till 4910 and 4980. Watch all MidCap Stocks for Rally.

>>> BankIndia - Hourly Chart <<<