Weekly Review - 12.11.2012

Dear All,

As Friday I wrote on this Blog, Gave the Chart as below.

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Second alternative happened and Nifty can't able to cross 5755, instead came down and touched 5677.

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

So what's Next..???

Now Nifty seems to be undergoing sub wave ii. As of C should end near 5680 or 5650 level to bounce back for a Bullish upmove.

So what else if it breaks 5650 also...there may be a Negative outlook also

Alternative (Bearish) Out look for Nifty:-

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Next week if Nifty breaks 5650 as marked on chart, then we shall see another 100 Point fall from 5650 as the Scenario may get changed as Nifty still on Wave 4. The Break out happened on 02nd Nov shall become a False and Tricky. In that case Nifty may touch the bottom line of the channel as shown on chart.

Weekly Stocks:-

After a dis-appointing Results from SBI and Tata Steel - Lets see how these two stocks are Poised in coming sessions.

SBI :-

State Bank Fell on Friday after the Bank Said its NPA gone up by 5.15% from 4.19% as the Loans from KFA, Air India Ltd and DCHL has been kept as Provisional. So what does Technical Says

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Chart shows a Bullish Scenario as off now. It seems the fall on friday - Ongoing sub wave ii as a consolidation, and if able to hold 2138-40 stock may turn around for an Upmove in coming days.

TATA STEEL :-

Tata Steel fell 3.32 percent on Friday after reporting a surprise quarterly loss of 3.64 billion rupees as weakening demand and prices in its main European market offset a solid performance at home.

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Pattern in Hourly chart of Tata Steel seems like a Head and Shoulder. If the Low of Friday or 386 breaks with Volume - a good fall to 377 and 364 or even lower levels soon.

Performance :-

>Click the image to see on full screen<

Pause before a Fire

Dear All,

>Click the Chart to see on full screen <

Nifty after breaking above 5720 made a high of 5776 and seems need to cool off for sub wave 2. So now the Possibilities are

1) wave 2 is finished if able to cross above 5755 as Yellow Arrow marks the same

2) else it can cool down to 5700 or 5690 before next jump, as C of 2 is still pending as Green Arrow markings.

Rising to Fall ????

Dear All,

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Of course Nifty above the Resistance - But I doubt there is a Possibility of double Zig Zag like abc-x-abc type of correction. The Doubt gets strength when Price is moving up today and Indicators like MACD not supporting - suggest today's upmove shall be marked as X.

May be I am wrong. But Only the Price should confirm the trend tomorrow, as every one is waiting for US Presidential Election Outcome as the sentiment may drive the market. But Technical telling a different story.

>>> BANK NIFTY <<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Bank Nifty also mirror the views of Nifty. abc-X-abc. As said above in Nifty - Only the Price must decide which is right and wrong.

>>>KTK BANK <<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

KTK Bank - seems to be tiered of upmove, may give a pause before next rally. I feel it wont cross 140.50 as it had topped out there and a possible downside may touch the support line drawn on chart.


Lets wait and See. Cheers!!!

A Cat on a Wall ?!?!?!?

Dear All,

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

Again a Cat on a Wall. Nifty should cross 5720 or should break 5683-5690 to make a move on either side. As I see this move as an a-b-c-d-e, Ongoing wave should be 'e' wave and a fall must be upto the bottom of the channel as shown on the chart, shall be upto 5550 - 5560.

>>>IDFC<<<

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

Stock seems to be tiered of Over bot, having support at 164.80, if gets broken then should touch 158. If the Support line gets broken, then over all uptrend should end and a deep fall is not ruled out.

Lets See. Cheerss!!!

Weekly Review - 05.11.2012

Dear All,

Many Question from my beloved friends, readers of the Blog,

1) will Nifty go Up from here or down. ?

2) Where will be Nifty during Diwali Session or New Year. ?

3) Should I stay Invested in Marker or Sell and Liquidate all my Holdings.?

4) Shall I invest more. Which Sector or Stock Should I Buy Now.?

For all these Query - Answer remains on Nifty Chart. So lets see What Nifty says !!!

>> NIFTY DAILY CHART <<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Above Nift Daily shows that a Complete Picture of A - B - C Pattern.

From Nov, 2010 - 6338.5 to Dec, 2011 - 4531.15 - Wave A - Impulse Wave

From Dec, 2011 - 4531.15 to till date (recent high 5815) - Wave B - Corrective Wave.

So Possible Target for Wave B - May be 5950 which shall be exactly 78.6% of Wave A.

So lets assume that recent low 5583 - Wave 4 might have ended as shown on chart.

>>> NIFTY - HOURLY CHART <<<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Nifty if able to cross and trade above 5725 - I assume that the wave 4 ended and upmove to continue.

Unlike in daily chart, I have an alternative scenario in Hourly chart - Low 5583 is considered as (A) and the current upmove considered as (B) and there is a possibility to fall for wave (C).

What I mean here is - Wave 4 is still not yet completed.

As I wrote last week - Possible downside for Wave C can be 5540 or 5490.

All the above alternative views get negative if able to cross and trade above 5725.

>>PERFOMANCE<<

>Click the Performance Image to see on full screen<

5636-42 - Resistance

Dear All,

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

As wrote Yesterday, Nifty facing Resistance between 5636-42. If crosses then upmove to continue else may fall to 5550 to 5530 as said earlier.

Lets see

Just a Relief Rally ?

Dear All,

>> NIFTY <<

>click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty paused the day today with a relief rally. 5636-41 should be the stiff Resistance as I think it wont get crossed. As I wrote earlier 5550 or 5530 should be the bottom line before next upmove.

>>BANK NIFTY<<

>click the chart to see on full screen<

Bank Nifty even though Broken today 11150 as I wrote yesterday, managed to move up as the channel of expanding triangle gave strength. Support at 11125 and 11250. Resistance 11330, 11390 and 11450 act as a Resistance.

Lets see. Cheers!!!

Finally Broken the Wall

Dear All,


>NIFTY<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Finally Nifty broken the Support 5636, now should fall near 5550-40 to complete the C wave as given on chart.

>BANK NIFTY<

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Unlike I wrote Yesterday, Bank Nifty unable to hold 11420, and fell down to a low of 11173. Tomorrow 11150 act as a support and if hold we may see a reasonable rally as the pattern looks like a expanding triangle.

Failed to hold the support may see a good sell off as there are lot of gaps left on the bottom to be get filled.

Lets see.

Bank Nifty - Monetary Policy Special

Dear All,

As lot of news started roaming around the Channels about Monetary Policy, followed by RBI's GDP forecast from 6.5% to 5.7%, many started taking about a big gap down opening tomorrow. So it becomes necessary for me to find out whats happening in Bank Nifty too.

>Click the Chart to see in full screen<

Above Bank Nifty Chart - it seems like its still on B Wave, as I feel its like a Raising Wedge in a a-b-c-d-e. I feel like one more raise is pending till 11740 that it may make a double top or even go above it before a good fall.

I may be wrong, if Bank Nifty opens in a gap down. But if breaks below 11420 then only a Fall is confirmed. Else any time Bank Nifty may shoot up.

Lets see. Cheers!!!

Nifty - Still Kept Guessing

Dear All,

Nifty kept every one guessing, gone no where stayed inside the gates between 5720 and 5636. So the levels again getting importance as RBI set to announce its Monetary Policy tomorrow.

RBI continuously fought inflation with 13 successive rate hikes till October 2011, the last rate hike was exactly a year ago, while Govt trying to reduce its fiscal deficit by increasing diesel,Petrol and Gas prices.

While Fuel price hike has spurted Inflation to 7.81% in September, its getting more important to look after the Monetary Policy tomorrow. Almost all Banks are struggling for Funds and crying to RBI to cut Rates, due to slowdown in their Loan growth and increasing Bad Assets, High voltage of pressure mounts on RBI to cut rates.

So what MR. Subbao Rao going to do tomorrow, shall decide the trend in forth coming days.

>Click the Chart to see on full screen<

Many more alternative counts has been given on last 3 weeks, as Nifty kept us guess like these. Here is one more. B wave has been ended with a-b-c-d-e as a triagle,and C wave started as shown on chart.

But again 5636 or 5720 should give us a clear trend. Lets see.

Weekly Review - 29.10.2012

Dear All,

After 2 weeks of consolidation, Nifty unable to break 5636 on the lower side and 5720 on the upper side. Made a side ways movement with a high voltage volatile. Its sure that both side stop loss hit for most of the traders.

Also on daily basis 5630 is very important as i have mentioned in my last weekly review, So new readers can refer previous weekly review for the same.

Here on Hourly chart there are 2 Possibilities on Nifty.

>>> NIFTY - Possibility - 1 <<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Above Half an Hour Chart - shows that we are still in B wave. This move is valid only if it does not breaks 5636, hence it may go up till 5720 or 5745 to end wave B before next fall.

>>> NIFTY - Possibility - 2 <<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Next Possibility is that Nifty has completed Wave B. A Possible triangle break down and a good sell off on friday has confirmed that. Also need to break 5636 next week for next fall. If not broken, then it can go up as said on first case.


>>>Follow Up - JP Associates<<<

Last week on Weekly Review, I have given JP Associates as a Buy candidate as it gave a break out on daily chart. But on Wednesday Update - wrote, Interim Upmove has ended, and gave chart as below

>Anticipated<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<


>Happened<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<


As anticipated JP Associates made a good fall from 94.50 to 90.

(23/Oct/2012 12:48:16): Sell JPASSOCIATES below 94.50. SL above 96.40 (closing). Target 92 and 90 (all spot lvl)

(26/Oct/2012 14:00:06): JP ASSOCIATE near Second Target 90. Sell given at 94.5. Shall Book Full Profit at 90 for a Profit of 4000 X 4.5 = Rs.18000/- Hope all enjoyed.

>>>BAJAJ AUTO<<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<


Bajaj Auto - As shown on chart, can short with a Stop Loss of 1820 for a good fall next week.

>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

>Click the Image to see on full screen<

Performance till 26th Octo, 2012. Interested shall contact me on krish_venkatesh@yahoo.com or 9677924975.

Nifty - Still Cat on the Wall ???

Dear All,

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Still Cat is on the Wall.?!?!?. 5670-76 if breaks on the lower side of the channel may see a fall. As usual 5720 remains as a Resistance on the Upper side. 5710 now becomes a upper trend line resistance. So lets wait and see what happens tomorrow.

>>>>AUROPHARMA<<<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Auro Pharma ready to fall. If i am not wrong, stock has completed A and B Wave and ready for a C wave fall. A Probable double Top made at 162.90 confirmed B wave has ended. Lets See.

>>>JP ASSOCIATES<<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Jp Associates - Came out of the the Symmetrical Triangle. It seems the Stock has halted its temporary uptrend. Get ready to see the stock falling. Sell and Enjoy.

Cheers!!!

Nifty - Up or Down ???

Dear Sir,

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Once again Nifty tested 5720 and closed near it. But this time a possible cross over above 5720 as it seems wave B is on the formation. 5746 and 5770 shall be the possible upper side target.

Weekly Review - 22.10.2012

Dear All,

Its a Black Friday for US Markets after a dis-appointed earning from heavy weights particularly from Tech sector. Nasdaq alone down 67 Points of 2.18%. Since Nifty is on a crucial Point, its very much important for us to see how we Open on Monday. So lets see how Nifty is now..

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Nifty Daily chart suggest 5630 is a Strong Support. Due to weak global cues - it seems Nifty may breach this level on Monday. If breaks then there is a High chance of filling the Gap left on bottom at 5447.

>>>CIPLA<<<

>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Cipla already given on weekly report earlier.Every time Cipla is breaking the Channel Line as market on chart and falling down shows that the stock is in a full time Bear Grip. Now as per chart it seems CIPLA has broken down a 35 Points Triangle. Seems like Fall should be fast and furious. Lets wait and see.

>>>>PERFORMANCE<<<

>Click the image to see on full screen<

Above sheet is the Performance for the Period upto 19th, October, 2012.

Nifty - On the Line of Fire ?!?!?

Dear All,

>Click the chart to see in full screen<

Again Nifty trying to Break 5720, and closed at 5716. There is no meaning in changing the counts and view often - as the movement became very volatile in nature.

To say it simple Nifty should either break 5640 or 5720 and must trade below or above the mentioned levels for the next move. Else its like a range bound or like a trapped bull and bear.

So if trades above 5720 tomorrow, then next Target should be 5745 and 5775 as show on chart.

Lets wait for Friday move to decide. Cheers

Nifty - Testing the Patience.

Dear All,

>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<

Nifty still not able to break the Neck Line or 5636-5640. Also not crossing 5720 on the Upper Side. Totally Nifty looks Dead and Testing lot of Patience for the last 5 Trading sessions.

Lets wait for Price confirmation.

>>CROMPTON GREAVES<<

>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<

16/Oct/2012 09:18:32): ***N4A-STOCK-ALERT**** Sell CROMPTON GREAVES below 136 SL above 142 (closing Basis). Target 132 and 126 (all spot lvl)

(17/Oct/2012 12:12:32): ***N4A-STOCK-UPDATE**** Crompton Greave near Second Target 126. Profit so far 2000 X 10 = Rs.20000/-. Enjoy

Lets wait for More Profitable Trade..Cheers!!!

Nifty - Its a Bear Warning !!!

Dear All,

>>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

Nifty Broken down once below 5640 and gave a Bear Warning !!!.

Now it seems B got completed and C wave 1-5 wave downside started.

> Alternative Count <

>>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

An alternative count is necessary here as there was a Triangle formation also. As per this A cut shorted as a-b-c and B has formed a triangle formation as a-b-c-d-e as shown on the above chart.

As per this 5660 and 5640 are the support levels - and both level breached today - shows one more Bear Warning.

As per 5550 or 5570 shall be the possible target on the downside. Lets See!!!

>>>HINDALCO<<<

>>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

One more Head and Shoulder Pattern - its on Hindalco. I think no explanation needed for the above chart. We too had a sell position in Hindalco. Lets see.

>>IFCI<<

>>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<

I have discussed several times about IFCI in this Blog. Many Queries has been answered. Once again IFCI gave Triangle break down and a Sell signal today. Expecting a fall tomorrow or in coming days. Lets See.

Nifty - A Cat on a Wall !!!

Dear All,

>Click the Chart to see on Full Screen<

Nifty stuck between 5690 and 5650 - gave a Choppy trade today.

A break on either side should give a clear trend. Break above may give 5750 for Wave B

A break below 5640 should ensure the completion of Wave B and start of Wave C. A Clear Head and Shoulder Pattern emerges below 5640 - followed by selling pressure.

Those who still have confusion refer my Friday Weekly Review for more clarity.

Weekly Review - 15.10.2012

Dear All,

My Last Post on this Blog about Head and Shoulder on Nifty - almost coming in to reality when Nifty was slowly loosing its strength on Friday.

Now the Big question is will Nifty break 5638-40 - base support or Neck Line. Here are the two possibilities.


>> NIFTY << >> Possibility - 1<<

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<<

Nifty has completed Sub wave B and should fall below the base line support 5638-40. Target should be 5550 or 5500.

>>NIFTY<< >> Possibility - 2<<

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<<

Nifty yet to complete sub wave B. In that case nifty may take support 5660 or 5640 and may bounce upto 5750 before a fall for completing wave B. So Nifty may fall upto 5570 or 5520 for wave C.

>>INFY<<

Expected 2 weeks before as given Weekly Review - 30th Sep,2012 :-

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<<


Have advised my clients to go short on INFY at 2600 for a Target of 2440 and 2300.

Happened on Friday during Result Day as below.

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<<


Booked all Profits from 2600 to 2300. Lot Size 125. Refer Performance sheet for Details.

>> JP ASSOCIATES <<

>Click the Chart to see on full Screen<<


Technically JP Associates has broken its Two and Half Year Trend line and gave a clear Bullish signal.

Not only JP Associates, but all cement companies started moving up..So what the News behind it.

On June 21, CCI had slapped Rs 6,307 crore penalty on 11 cement makers.The order was passed following probe by its Director General (Investigation) on a complaint filed by Builders Association, which has hailed the order saying "it was long-pending and the penalty could have been higher"

CCI had not disclosed various facts about matters like production, dispatches and pricing.

Meanwhile Competition Appellate Tribunal (COMPAT) has asked on 11th Oct, fair trade regulator CCI to give fresh copies of its order levying over Rs 6,300 crore in penalties on 11 cement companies for cartelisation, providing them with complete details on production, pricing and sales.

The tribunal said the matter would be listed for further hearing within seven weeks, taking into account the fresh details from the CCI and the cement companies.

This was an Interim Relief to all 11 Cement Companies including JP Associates.

>>PERFORMANCE<<

>Click the Image to see on full Screen<<

Performance upto 15th Oct, 2012. All Levels are given on Spot Only. Stop Loss on Closing Basis Only. Interested may contact krish_venkatesh@yahoo.com or 96779247975.

Nifty - Possible Head & Shoulder ???

Dear All,

>>> Click the Chart to see on full Screen <<<

As told Yesterday 5640 gave a Good Support and Nifty was able to rally nicely. Now it seems Nifty trying to form a Head and Shoulder like Pattern as shown on chart.

I hope the On going upmove was a corrective in nature for wave B and if able to cross 5728 then may move up to 5746 and 5776 Resistance which are 61.8% and 78.6% retrace of Wave A.

Since tomorrow is a Result Day for INFY Q2 and IIP Data - More action waiting.

Every one is waiting for Infosys EPS F13 Guidance, as Rupee is appreciating sharply.

>>> TATA STEEL <<<

>>> Click the Chart to see on full Screen <<<

If you are my regular blog reader - then You must remember about Tata Steel Chart I have posed a few days before, that it has created a Inverted Head and Shoulder. Since 61.8% retrace is at 414.2, today it crossed its important previous high of 418 and gave a clear break out.

Now the Stock should move toward 432 and more in coming days.

Cheers!!!