Weekly Review :- 10.01.2014

Dear All,

Mobius Says Emerging-Market Selloff to Deepen on Outflows

The worst isn’t over for emerging markets after the benchmark stock index sank to a five-month low and the nations’ currencies tumbled, said Templeton Emerging Markets Group’s Mark Mobius.

"We are looking but actually not buying at this stage. Prices can come down or take time to stabilise." The outlook from Mobius, a consistent advocate of emerging markets who's been investing in the countries for more than 40 years, contrasts with that of Jim O'Neill , who created the BRIC moniker for the four largest developing economies and said this week that the rout created a buying opportunity.

The MSCI Frontier Markets Index rose 21 per cent in 2013, outpacing the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 26 percentage points, the widest annual gap since 2005. Corporate earnings in the 26 countries that make up the frontier index have risen to the highest level in five years.

Profits in the MSCI emerging index, which is dominated by the BRIC countries, are still about 11 per cent below their 2011 high. The pace of economic growth in China is among the biggest questions in developing nations and the largest risks for markets, Bill Gross, who oversees the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Feb. 4.

Riskier assets remain vulnerable, he said. The US-domiciled Templeton Frontier Markets Fund has topped 98 per cent of its peers in the last three years with a 4.6 per cent annualized return, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund, which managed about $1.5 billion of assets at the end of December, had its biggest holdings in Middle East and Africa, according to a fact sheet on the firm's website.

Templeton's $13 billion Asian Growth Fund has outperformed 89 per cent of peers in the past five years. Mobius said in a Januray 29 interview that inflows into developing nations would resume later this year because they have fast economic growth, low debt relative to gross domestic product and high foreign-exchange reserves. "There are opportunities," Mobius said. "But there's no rush to get in."

>>> Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
As wrote last weekly review, Nifty breached 5970 and took support @ 5933. Key resistance 6130 or 6144, break above these levels may change the pattern and above counts are modifiable. Lets See.

>>> Nifty - Hourly Chart - As Updated as on 05th Feb, 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
We are long sine 6005 and moved above 6034 and closed @ 6064.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<
Bank nifty if crosses the middle line - expect short covering.

>>> Axis Bank - As Updated on 04th Feb 2014 <<<

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>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

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We are still Long and yet there is a fresh break out see on friday.

>>>> SBI - As Updated on 04th Feb 2014 <<<

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>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

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Again a fresh break out see on SBI on friday. Lets see.

Volatile Again. Bull Safe Still

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Amid heavy volatile Nifty able to sustain above 6000 level. Price holding above 6034 shows bulls on control. Now if able to cross 50 Hour moving average 6046 then upmove should be good. Fresh break out on RSI also add strength to the bull view.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Comments on Chart.

>>> JSW Steel <<<

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JSW Steel hit sl. May re-enter also.. Lets See.

Resistance @ 6131 & 6144

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hold Your Longs.. Upmove should continue.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty should move above the channel. Hold Longs.

Bulls are Back Again ???

Dear All,

India is better prepared to deal with any further US Fed tapering, but the country needs to remain vigilant to face eventualities, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said here today.

"We have done a lot to make the economy robust and we are better prepared (to deal with impact of tapering). (But) I will never say we are fully prepared for any eventuality. We have to be vigilant.

"We are better prepared certainly now than we were six months ago and that is because of hard work by the government as well as regulators," Rajan told reporters after the FSDC meeting.

The meeting took place against the backdrop of tapering of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US, and the Reserve Bank revising the current financial year's growth projection to less than 5 per cent.

Last week, the US Federal Reserve decided to cut its bond purchases further by another $10 billion. It has decided to purchase $65 billion per month of mortgage backed securities and longer-term treasury securities as against $75 billion per month earlier.

>>> Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If you are a regular reader - You must be well know that we are advising short for many many days on nifty. Yes today told to cover shorts and enter Long. More details on chart.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Udpated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on Last weekly review that its time to cover shorts as we witnessed a much positive divergence. See what happened today !!!

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes We are Long since yesterday and average around today's low also. So as per chart if breaks the channel - expect a big short covering.

>>> Axis Bank <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes We are Long in Axis Bank since 1105. Got a Clear break out as on chart. Big upmove coming. Lets See.

>>> State Bank of India <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

SBI gave a clear break Out on Chart. Yes we are long in SBI too since 1510. Lets See.

6005 Broken - Next 5960

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - As Updated Last weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last week about the possible downside for nifty.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes 6005 done. Lets wait for Next Target.

>>> Apollo - As Updated on 28th Jan 2014 <

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have initiated Sell on Apollo Hosp on 28th Jan.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Stop Loss hit with a loss of Rs.5500

Weekly Review 03.02.2014

Dear All,

India revises down 2012/13 GDP growth to 4.5 percent y/y :-

India revised down its economic growth for the fiscal year 2012/13 to 4.5 percent from 5.0 percent earlier, the government data showed on Friday, on lower than provisionally estimated output in farm and manufacturing sectors.

The latest numbers are the first revised gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the last fiscal year.

The data also showed lower than estimated growth numbers for exports, capital investment and consumption sectors, suggesting deeper underlying weaknesses in Asia's third-largest economy, which grew at more than 9 percent before the 2008 global financial crisis.

The GDP growth for 2011/12 fiscal year was, however, upwardly revised to 6.7 percent from 6.2 percent, but that of the 2010/11 year was revised down to 8.9 percent from 9.3 percent, the data from the Ministry of Statistics showed.

The latest downward revision was proof that efforts to revive investments by fast-tracking the approvals for big infrastructure projects didn't quite help revive the sentiments last fiscal. Aggregate demand in the economy stayed subdued and growth in all its components – government, private consumption and investments – trailed the previous year's data.

>>> Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week mentioned about the end of wave 2 and wrote about the possibilities of fall below the channel with caution.

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As expected Nifty down the channel and took support @ 6030. Below 6030 may see 5970.


>>> Nifty - Hourly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On hourly front said about the importance of channel support. See what happened !!!

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the channel and broken down 6140 crucial support also. Now I expect more fall with the given target on chart. Sell on rise is a good tactics.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote about the failure of Bank nifty to cross the Channel bottom of Pitch fork.

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty too fell down as expected. Lets see what's next on hourly chart.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly chart showing a positive divergence - Possible bounce back on card. So again Sell on rise is advisable. Short sellers may use the fall to cover shorts now and sell on rise.

>>> Hits of the Week <<<

>>> Andhra Bank <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Century Tex <<<

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>>> LT <<<

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>>> JP Associates <<<

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>>>Performance<<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

above performance does not include nifty profit. for details of subscription send email to niftyforall@yahoo.com

Again Sell on Rise

Dear All,

US cuts QE to $65 billion:-

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday decided to trim its bond purchases by another $10 billion as it stuck to a plan to wind down its extraordinary economic stimulus despite recent turmoil in emerging markets.

Markets in countries with large current account deficits, such as Turkey and Argentina, have suffered steep losses in part because of the prospect of less US monetary stimulus.

These currencies and stocks slumped again after the Fed's announcement, offsetting aggressive interest rate hikes by Turkey and South Africa.

On Wednesday, Bernanke, 60, quietly adjourned his final policy-setting meeting after an unusually tumultuous eight-year stint atop the world's most influential central bank.

Early assessments have been mostly positive. The former Princeton professor has been praised as the steady hand who helped steer the United States and world economies clear of a far more painful recession.

He flooded financial markets with liquidity from an alphabet soup of programs set up on the fly; he printed trillions of dollars through three rounds of QE; and he made bold promises to keep stimulus in place for years to come, tying low interest rates to particular economic outcomes in an approach emulated by other central banks.

As a leading scholar of the Great Depression, Bernanke had a deep theoretical understanding of what to do in the face of a fast-moving banking panic. He put that knowledge into practice when the financial crisis struck.

The finance ministry today said that the US Federal Reserve's decision to trim its monetary stimulus will not affect the Indian markets and all steps would be taken by the Reserve Bank of India and the government to ensure stability.

Perhaps the finance ministry should make this statement in the US, because few in India believe in it. What steps can the ministry take to protect the markets? Will it pump in money to prop up the markets or go on a road show to bring in new investors?

It is a known fact that the only reason the Indian market as well as other global markets have moved up in the last five years is because of the quantitative easing (QE) measures of the US. More than fundamentals, it is liquidity that supported the market. With increasing debt levels in the US and decreasing impact of QE on the economy, the Federal Reserve decided to taper the flow of liquidity in the system.

Federal Reserve's mandate is the US economy; it is not concerned with what's happening in emerging markets. A pause at this stage, say experts would have signalled that the Fed is a slave to the markets rather than to economic forces.

Emerging markets across the globe are in trouble, to say the least. Interest rates are on the rise in many countries (India did it too) to prevent their currency from falling. However, countries like Argentina, Turkey, Russia and South Africa continue to see currency depreciation.

A slowdown in China and currency trouble in emerging markets has scared the ETF (exchange traded funds) investor. A Bloomberg report says that ETFs are witnessing record outflow. More than $7 billion has flowed out of the emerging markets funds in January 2014, the highest redemption since data is available with Bloomberg. Two of the largest funds are witnessing their highest ever redemption since their inception.

The most that RBI and finance ministry can do is try to stabilise the currency by pumping in borrowed dollars that were was raised recently. That is putting good money, that too someone else's, after bad.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken all supports - Again sell on rise.

Resistance 6140 & 6189 Support 6112

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again broken below 6140, and now the move seems like an a-b-c. So Possible corrective upmove likely till 6189 as shown on chart. Else fall to continue.

>>> ULTRACEMCO <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Long in Ultra Tech Cement form 1680-85. Part Profit done for Rs. 5000. Clear break out on chart shows further upmove. Lets See.

Resistance 6140-6150

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Expect some consolidation if trades above 6140. Else the fall to continue.


>>> Apollo Hospital <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Sell Apollo Hospital - More Fall Coming.

6130 Should Hold

Dear All,

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6130 if holds then bounce back possible. Else fall till 6080 and then to bounce. RBI day and Fed Meeting going to make us more thrilled this week. Lets Wait for it.

>>> LT - As Updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened<<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Huge Profit of nearly 24500 in Just 3 trading days.

>>> Andhra Bank - As updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Fell down sharply and hit my Target as given with a profit of Rs.16000. HOpe all made a big profit.

>>> Century Tex - As given last weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Hit 285 with a profit of 28000.

>>> JPAssociates <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Sell Triggered at 46-45.50 and touched a Low of 39.75. Mega Jackpot call of the day with a profit of nearly 44000. Hip Hip Hurray...