Weekly Review - 14.09.2015

Dear All,

Citing an improving economy, the Federal Reserve signaled that it's on track to raise historically low interest rates as early as September, but that rates are likely to climb more gradually than it previously anticipated.

The Fed pushed its benchmark short-term interest rate to near zero in December 2008, an effort to spur borrowing, spending and investment in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The central bank has kept rates low ever since to keep a fragile expansion going.

Some Fed officials want to start raising their rate from near zero because the job market is improving at a rapid pace and reducing economic slack. Underscoring that point, the Labor Department reported Wednesday a record of 5.8 million U.S. job openings in July, a sign that the demand for labor is on the rise and could lead to wage gains. That follows Friday’s report that unemployment fell to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July.

Some officials in this camp also worry that if the Fed keeps rates low for too long it could breed financial excesses like asset bubbles fueled by borrowing that hurt the economy later.

Others have trepidations about continued low inflation, the dollar’s rise, China’s economic slowdown and recent financial-market turbulence. Their concerns suggest the Fed could hold rates steady for now, until they’re sure the global economy isn’t headed for broader trouble.

Janet Yellen now faces her most difficult task to date as Fed chairwoman: Forge a consensus among divided central-bank officials on a historic decision about whether to lift rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

The Fed leader hasn’t spoken publicly since her July testimony to Congress, when she signaled rate increases this year are likely. Her public silence about the decision in recent weeks, as financial markets have wobbled, leaves unclear which way she will want to take the Fed’s 17-member decision-making group.

Lets See some Technical Charts also.

>>> Nifty Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is a weekly Chart. Previously on August, 2013 - 100 Week Moving Average - Supported the Bulls and Price made a big rally there after. Next week if 100 WMA able to hold - Then expect same such rally ?? - Hope So.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its a 1122 Points fall on both sides. Wave A = Wave C. So 7540 is an Important Key Support Next week to decide the Bulls Fate. If this analysis is not wrong, then Bears are in great danger. Bulls may zoom heavily in coming days.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Abvove 7950 - Bears may be in great danger - 8080 and 8208 may be the next target. A Gap left should be watched carefully.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As wrote - Bank Nifty also taking support from the Channel. If price able to hold above the channel next week also, Expect some big recovery and rally.


>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

16500-550 gave a good support, Above 16850 expect a break out cum rally. 17000 and 17430 act as a important Resistance.

>>> ICICI BANK - Posted on 10th Sep, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are holding Long in ICICI Bank, Expecting some good rally.

>>> MCLEODRUSS - Posted on 09th Sep, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long - Expecting more rally.

>>> SBIN - Posted on 08th Sep, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long on SBIN also. Cheers!!!

Above 7845 - Don't Remain Short.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above 7845 - Bulls are ready to zoom. Looks like a IHS. Get Ready.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty also - Looks like an IHS - If not wrong, above 16850 - Don't remain Short - Bulls may roar. Get Ready.

>>> ICICI BANK - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are long in ICICI Bank from 263, Get ready for 280 soon. Cheers!!!

Key Resistance 7845 - Above Next Target 7950 & 8080

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

7845 - If crossed - More rally till 7950 and 8080. We are holding our Long.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Gap may be filled before next rally on Bank Nifty. Lets See.

>>> MCLEODRUSS <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are long in McLeodruss from 150-154 Level. Today made a High of 169. More Rally on Card. Holding Our Long still.

Break Out or a Trap - ?!?!?!

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

It looks like a Falling Wedge Break out, If holds - Expect the rally to continue tomorrow also. We are long.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Clear Break out from the wedge. Price if crossed 50HMA - then expect a good rally and short covering on card.

>>> SBIN <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

SBIN - One more break out from falling wedge. Expect more rally and short covering tomorrow also. Cheers!!!

7500 - Good Support

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

7500 Last hope and if holds - Expect a U Turn.

Weekly Review - 07.09.2015

Dear All,

Fresh data released Friday — showing unemployment at a seven-year low and a cooling pace of jobs growth — provided conflicting signals about America's economic momentum as the Federal Reserve considers raising interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. The U.S. added 173,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent. Never before has the nation’s unemployment rate plunged so low — a point when companies should be competing aggressively for workers — while wages have stayed so flat.

Only weeks ago most investors figured the Fed would make the move in September, but market volatility over the last month and evidence of a slowdown in China has thrown that plan into doubt. Since the beginning of August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than nine percent, while enduring two of its steepest daily drops since the financial crisis.

Though the U.S. has only modest direct exposure to China — trade with Beijing accounts for less than 1 percent of the U.S.’s GDP — a sudden deceleration in the world’s second-largest economy would cause broader ripples, potentially leading to trouble in other emerging economies while further pushing down prices of oil and other commodities.

In a speech Friday morning, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker argued that the economy is strong enough to withstand a small rate increase by the Fed. He pointed to strong gains in consumer spending and the rapid decline in unemployment over the past two years. Meanwhile, he said, inflation measured from January to July has reached the central bank’s target of 2 percent.

Central bankers from around the world are telling their American counterparts that they are ready for a U.S. interest rate hike and would prefer that the Federal Reserve make the move without further ado.

While Yao Yudong, head of the People's Bank of China Research Institute of Finance and Banking, last week blamed the Fed for the market turmoil and said a U.S. hike should be delayed, most central bankers from emerging markets contacted by Reuters at Jackson Hole and over the past month shared Carstens' view.

India's RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, too, has said that emerging markets including India may witness volatility but India is prepared with its forex reserves and lower inflation.

>>>Impact on Indian equities<<<

The Indian equity market has been receiving a slew of funds from foreign investors since the beginning of 2009 (when the dollar carry trade began and the first round of stimulus began).

Net foreign investment in Indian equity market in this period was around $102 billion.

But there are many reasons why the risk of all this money flowing out is lower. From the beginning of 2009 till now, the Sensex is up more than 200 per cent but the gain in dollar terms is just 116 per cent. Again, many of the listed stocks have delivered poor returns since 2008.

An analysis of the change in market capitalisation of various countries between 2008 and now in dollar terms shows that Indian market cap is down 11 per cent since January 2008. This is despite the Sensex trading 37 per cent above this level currently. The difference is largely explained by the currency movement.

According to this metric, US market capitalisation has gained the most, up 38 per cent from January 2008. It is, therefore, likely that many global investors preferred US equity markets due to the better economic prospects and the sexy tech and social media stocks where possibility of heady gains were brighter. This renders US equity more vulnerable to a decline if de-leveraging begins.

Since equity investors take a bet on the growth prospects of the economy, India’s relatively superior growth can help ward off a steep sell-off. The high impact cost in Indian markets is another deterrent to sustained selling in equities.

Equity prices could, however, be adversely impacted if the rupee goes into a tailspin against the dollar. The resulting increase in the cost of foreign borrowing and imported inputs will deal a blow to India Inc’s earnings.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Lot of Nervous on Upcoming FED's Decision - Nifty slipped on friday trade also. As shown here on Hourly Chart - If 7615 breaks - Possibly another 100 points fall can't be ruled out, as the next support at 7500.

>>> Nifty 5 Mins Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above 5 mins chart suggest 7630 as a good support. But if Monday Opening may have a gap down - may look for the next support @ 7575 and 7500. If 7630 Holds on monday morning - recovery possible.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Not sure about this channel on Bank Nifty. But Possibly - If price able to hold it, may see some recovery.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Looks like the Current wave has completed 1-5 fall, if holds we may see some relief rally. Lets wait and see.

>>> PERFORMANCE till 04th Sep, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

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Above 7845 - More Rally on Card. Shorts - Caution

Dear All,

>>> Nifty 5 Mins Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is a 5 mins chart - To show how the bulls are trying to control the current rally. As I wrote yesterday - Nifty didn't break 7668 and started moving. If 7845 breaks - Hope some more rally may be there. Short Sellers Caution.

Broken 7750. Next Support @ 7668.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

7750 taken away by bears, Next Support 7668. Taking advantage of Divergence - Hope the current fall may be sub wave (b) and may turn up for sub
wave (c) any time. We have covered all our short today. Lets wait and see.

>>> CESC - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have Booked CESC Short @ 500. Stocks looks Over Sold. Risk Takers can wait for Target 480.

>>> ANDHRABANK - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We booked short in Andhra Bank with Rs.10K Profit. Cheers!!!

Support @ 7750. If Holds - Expect Relief Rally - Else Free Fall to continue

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As wrote Yesterday - Nifty made a free fall once again. So Whats Next !!!. As per attached chart above - If 7750 Holds, Look for a possible bounce from here. Else 7750 and 7668 breaks - then free fall to continue.

>>> CESC - Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted Yesterday - CESC may fall any time. See what happened.

>>> CESC - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Stocks made a low of 503, If given support breaks again tomorrow, expect more fall till our target price.

>>> ANDHRABANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If the given H&S is not wrong - Expect more fall. We are short from 66 - Expecting more such fall. Cheers!!!

Support @ 7930. Caution Again.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

7930 if broken - More fall likely. A minor break down from a channel on chart - suggesting caution for tomorrow. 8095 Resistance still not taken out - may add strength to Bears once again.

>>> CESC - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

CESC looking for a fall. We have shorted today and expecting a good fall.

Weekly Review - 31.08.2015

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken Head and Shoulder on Daily Chart. Rally for last 3 days happened as a Pull Back and may reverse any time sooner or later. Price if able to break the neck line again - may trigger a sell off again.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We made a 280 Points Profit last week. As given on above chart, sub wave (iii) completed and a relief rally for sub wave (iv) on the way. If 8094-95 takes again on the upper side - then (iv)th sub wave may extend as a complex correction till 8145 or even till 8250. Else Price may resume the fall to break the previous low.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Lot of speculations about - RBI may cut rate following Chinese rate cut. If that happens - Bank Nifty and Entire Index's may make a "U" turn any time along with Bank Index and Banking Stocks.
But falling rupee and Emerging Market's competition in Currency War, Followed by US strong GDP data last week and speculation that FED may not delay September Rate cut - may harden the hands of RBI to Cut Rates as usual.
Rajan - doesn't looks like bowing for our India Politician's Pressure to Cut Rate - Rather he wants his own way to Proceed with his monitory Policies.
If all the above are not wrong, then it looks like Bank Index under Heavy Bear Grip. Increasing NPA's - Increasing Cost of Funding - Makes Indian Banks to Struggle hard in coming Quarters also.
So Stay Caution on Bank Index, It looks like a Falling Knife, and not yet bottomed out.


>>> ASIANPAINTS <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Profit Rs.10,000/-

>>> ENGINERSIN <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

HIT SL and Booked Loss

>>> CAIRN INDIA <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

HIT SL and Booked Loss.

>>> ALBK <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Profit @ 87.

>>> DLF - Posted on 25th Aug, 2015 <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote DLF - to move towards 123. See what happened

>>> DLF - Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

DLF - Booked at 118 with a Profit of Rs.32000/-.

>>> PERFORMANCE - for the month of Aug 2015 <<<

>>> click the image to see on full screen <<<

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