Weekly Review - 10th April 2017

Dear All,

The Indian markets posted their biggest single-day drop on Friday in nearly two weeks after US missile strikes on Syria. US launched a massive strike on a Syrian air base in retaliation to a chemical attack on civilians, stoking fears of a geopolitical flare-up.

The move triggered a risk-off sentiment among global investors with stocks slipping and gold and bonds inching up. The Indian markets, however, were among the worst-performing markets on Friday, with the benchmark Sensex and Nifty dropping 0.7 per cent each.

Unpleasant geopolitical developments are never good for markets and economies, Investors would “wait and watch” for reactions from countries related to the Syria civil unrest over the next few days before “acting decisively.

Monsoon :-

India witnessed near-normal monsoon last year after two years of droughts, and that helped raise food grain production and rural demand looked up too. But before those benefits could show up fully in the economic data, the nation is bracing for poor rainfall in the ensuing monsoon season. Private weather forecaster Skymet has projected below-normal rainfall this year because the emergence of a possible El Nino pattern.

Should that come true, it will disrupt the emerging growth pulses of the economy which has just about come to terms with the after-effect of the cash ban.

GST implementation:-

GST looks all set to be implemented from July 1, 2017, replacing the current cumbersome taxation system in India. Some estimates show the GDP will rise 2 per cent after GST implementation. With the implementation of GST, the unorganised sector will come under the tax net and can’t avoid tax payment any more.


>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price made a Shooting Star again on Above weekly chart. On weekly basis price failed to close above 9200-9220 shows - Bulls are at risk. Possibly Bears may try to repeat what happened earlier as shown on chart.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Two alternatives - Price resisted for Wave B or Wave 5 at 9274. In both cases correction is imminent. We had short positions too, looking for a Correction.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price resisted @ 9274 - May test 9130 or 9020 or even below. Break Below 8968 may trigger More or Heavy Sell off.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price failed to cross above 21700 for the 2nd consecutive week with lot of negative divergence.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty Hourly Chart - Shows the end of 1-5 as last leg. Price should break below 21310 or 21275 to confirm the bear strength.

>>> ARVIND - Holding Short <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Short on Arvind. Above Head & Should Like Pattern - If not Wrong, Expect a Good or Heavy Correction.

>>> PEL - Holding Short <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Short on PEL. Price completed Raising Wedge as ABCDE, If not wrong, Expect a Good Correction. Cheers!!!

>>> N4A - Services <<<

Key Resistance @ 9274 & 9305

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Key Resistance @ 9274 or 9305 - If not crossed - May Possible start correcting. Support 9240 - 9220 - 9170 & 9130


>>> PEL - Entered Short Today <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

PEL has completed a raising Wedge as ABCDE, If unable to break above the channel top - Expect some Good Correction. Today we have entered short - anticipating the correction. Cheers!!!

Above 9240 > More Rally till 9380

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above 9240 may rally till 9380.

>>> McDowell - We are Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We entered long - and holding for some rally. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 03.04.2017

Dear All,

The broader Nifty ended the fiscal with gains of 1,435.55 points, or 18.55%, after scaling the year’s high of 9,218.40 (intra-session) on March 17.

The index had lost about 9% in the previous fiscal, but had ended 2014-15 with gains of 26.65%.

GST :-

After months of discussions and several meetings, four goods and services tax (GST) supplementary bills finally got the Lok Sabha’s green signal on Wednesday. While the seven-hour-long debate was on, concerns were raised on many aspects of these bills—a significant one being the anti-profiteering clause. This clause requires businesses to pass on the benefit of input credit or tax reduction to the end consumer by way of a commensurate reduction in prices.

The objective of this move is to protect consumers from inflation after GST implementation. The implementation of GST has often led to some inflationary pressures in countries where this tax is already in place. But while the objective may sound simple, implementing an anti-profiteering clause is fraught with grave risks.

The biggest challenge, according to tax experts, is that of compliance. The government will have to ask for pre- and post-GST cost sheet of each product and calculate the pre-GST tax rate and post-GST tax rate for each and every item to understand the quantum of tax benefit that a supplier should get.

What corporates are also worried about is whether the anti-profiteering clause will result in witch-hunting by tax authorities. “The fear among corporates with respect to anti-profiteering is that it gives lot of power to the taxmen who may misuse it and harass taxpayers since a slew of indirect taxes will now be out of window and with that, their access to taxpayers would lessen.

To conclude, the anti-profiteering clause is yet another poorly thought-out attempt by the government to micro-manage businesses and may well lead to a bureaucratic nightmare. If implemented, it could have a severely deleterious effect both on business and on sentiment at the bourses.

RBI policy review: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI is scheduled to hold its second bimonthly policy review of the CY17 on April 5 and 6, wherein the central bank is widely expected to keep the interest rates unchanged.

Fed minutes: The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March meeting will be released on Wednesday (April 5). The US Fed raised the target range for its federal funds by 25 basis points to 0.75-1 per cent at its March 2017 review.

Economic Data: Markit Economics will announce the India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for March 2017 on Monday. The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in India rose to 50.7 in February of 2017 from 50.4 in January 2017.

On the global front, Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI, Markit euro zone Manufacturing PMI and US Markit Manufacturing PMI for March 2017 will be released on Monday, which will show the health of the manufacturing sector in respective regions.

In addition, a couple of other events like consolidation of SBI branches and auto sales growth reports may also chart market direction in the coming week.


>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price to face its crucial resistance 9220 as per above chart. Since last three weeks - 9200 or 9220 is not crossed.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart - An Alternative Count <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is an alternative count as 1-5. 5th wave might face its resistance @ 9200-9220 for 61.8% retrace. Cross above may trigger more rally.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Key Resistance @ 9190 - 9200 - 9220 - 9240. Support @ 9100 - 9020 - 8968.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On Daily Chart - Price may find its resistance @ 22040.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart May Find its resistance @ 21650 - 21895 - 22040.

>>> GRANULES - Holding Short <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Short on Granules.

>>> MindTree - Holding Long <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long and Looking for a good Pull Back.

>>> Performance for the month end of March, 2017 <<<

>>> click the image to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision.

>>> N4A - Services <<<

Above 9135 may Face Resistance @ 9150,9190 & 9220

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Next Resistance @ 9150 - 9190 - 9220.

>>> GRANUELS - Holding Short <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We had short and looking for a good correction. Cheers!!!

Above 9135 > Fresh Rally Possible

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Long since yesterday from 9060 - If breaks above 9135 - Expect Fresh Rally.

Support @ 9020

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

9020 or 8968 >> Holds - Bulls are on Safe Hand.

Weekly Review 27th March 2017

Dear All,

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Friday directed Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) to disgorge Rs 447.27 crore, made “unlawfully” by dealing in shares of its erstwhile subsidiary, Reliance Petroleum (RPL).

The markets regulator also barred RIL from the futures and options (F&O) segment for a year and asked it to settle all existing open positions. It will also have to pay 12 per cent interest on the disgorgement amount since November 29, 2007.

El Nino impact :-

IMD officials on Friday said that India is likely to emerge unscathed from the El Nino weather pattern as it is expected to set in only during the latter part of the four-month monsoon season which should lift sentiment on D-Street this coming week.

Australia’s most respected weather forecast department has predicted El Nino this year which could potentially derail the rural recovery party, although it is still early to worry about this.

Macroeconomic data :-

A flurry of macroeconomic data is expected on Friday, March 31. The government will unveil external debt data followed by infrastructure output data for the month of February, foreign reserves, bank deposit growth on a year-on-year (YoY) basis and bank loan growth.

India's annual infrastructure output growth slowed to 3.4 percent in January from 5.6 percent in the previous month on a fall in refinery production. The output growth came in at 4.8 percent for the first 10 months of the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2017.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bulls are Alive But not Safe. After a Big Bang Victory on UP Election from Ruling BJP - Price made a Break out above 8990 - Till then a Lot of DOJI - HANGING MAN - HAMMER - Shows Bulls are Alive - But Not Safe.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Between 9020 & 9135 - movement looks like a CAT ON A WALL. A break below 8968-8976 May trigger some major correction.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After FM's Speech about Funding and Handling of NPA of PUS Banks - Made a Revival - which helped Bank Nifty's UPmove. Though on Weekly Chart it was a Hanging Man.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Cross above 21190-21200 may trigger fresh rally till 22000.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

21170 remains as a Crucial Resistance for Next Week Move. Cross above may trigger fresh rally till 21500.

>>> TVS MOTOR - Booked Rs.28000 Proit <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last Week We have Booked a Profit of Rs.28000 on TVS Motor Short.

>>> MCDOWELL-N - Holding Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are holding long since 2160 - Break above the wedge may trigger fresh Rally.

>>> Performance till 25th March 2017 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision

>>> N4A - Services <<<

Resistance @ 9090 & 9135

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price Supported @ 9020 today may find its Resistance @ 9090 & 9135 tomorrow.

>>> TVS Motor - Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted Yesterday - We have shorted and Expecting a Correction. See what Happened.

>>> TVS Motor - Booked Rs.28,000/- Profit <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have Booked our Short near 425 with Rs.28000/- Profit. Above chart shows - Price may correct more - if continues to hold below the channel.

>>> MCDOWELL-N - We are Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Long and expecting more rally above the wedge. Cheers!!!

Next Support @ 9020 & 8970

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price need to hold the trend line with the help of RSI to keep the Momentum Bullish - Also an Doubtful Island Reversal seen on the top - Must be taken into account with much caution???

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price need to hold 9020 & 8790 for Pull Back Rally.

>>> TVSMOTOR - Holding Short <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Holding Short and Expecting more Correction. Cheers!!!

Support 9086 & 9050

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Key Support 9086 & 9050 If breaks may trigger a 100+ Point Correction Possible. Else Rally may continue...

Weekly Review 20th March 2017

Dear All,

Yogi Adityanath, alias Ajay Singh Bisht, the five-time MP from Gorakhpur is all set to become the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.

An eventful week it was. BJP's landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh, US Federal Reserve's less hawkish tone and an update on Goods and Services Tax (GST) pushed the Nifty50 index to its fresh lifetime highs thrice in a holiday-truncated week.

Investors believe the win boosts Modi's re-election prospects in 2019 and will encourage him to advance his ambitious economic reform agenda. It also comes as analysts are growing confident of a recovery in earnings because of stronger economic growth: Macquarie estimates earnings-per-share for the NSE could surge 16 percent in the year starting in April, compared with a 5 percent rise in the previous fiscal year and 4 percent in 2014/15.

The under current in the market is strong as new money from both FIIs and DIIs continue to pour in spite of high valuation. Rupee has strengthened to a fresh 16 months high led by foreign inflows. Further, fall in crude prices and positive cues from GST council meeting added color to this rally.

NEXT WEEK: In the absence of major domestic and global cues, the investors will track the developments on the GST Bill.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is the Weekly Chart of Nifty. While all are Bullish on entire market after Price breached above 8990, I have made an alternate count here. It doesn't mean that I am totally bearish and advising to short or exit market. Discussed here is an alternative Only.

While all are singing on a same tone - I am looking for an alternative. While every one started ignoring Indicators, speaking about only the Price break out after some major events - I am still wonder why the market still making a choppy and volatile move.

In my experience - so far i have learned - market won't move in the way what the majority are thinking. Hence its very important to identify the change in trend to protect your capital and to identify forthcoming Opportunities.

As mentioned on above chart - If price able to close above the key resistance 9220-40 on weekly basis - No doubt price may move till 9500 and even 10K. But the million dollar question is, Is this so simple to predict a market like this - in such a simple way??.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Here in daily I have mentioned clearly how do i validate my counts. The Low 7893 was 50% of previous rally which i have taken as wave B. Current rally for wave C of B has taken 61.8% of Wave A. So Friday High 9218 is very Crucial on Weekly Basis. Totally I understood this move as a irregular ABC.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

I have marked the above hourly chart as 1-5, might have lot of confusions and subwaves. Price firmly managed to hold 100HMA. As per the above count - Price on the last leg of 5th wave and hence may find its resistance @ 9220 - 9240 - 9280.

>>> Bank Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty Breaks the Previous high and closed above, but with a Red Doji on top of the Chart - is a Concern.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price need to trade above 21200 to reach 21500 and 22000. If breaks the wedge along with RSI - may trigger selling.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price need to hold 21130 to protect from 200+ correction - Key Resistance 21460-21500.

>>> BAJFINANCE - Break Or Make <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its a Break or Made Move on BajFinance - Lets Wait and See.

>>> Performance till 17th March, 2017 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision

>>> N4A-Services <<<