Pages

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Key Resistance 5441

Dear All,


With falling rupee and rising oil prices casting a shadow over Indian economy, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday said the country is faced with a difficult economic situation for which some domestic factors too were responsible.

"It cannot be denied that the country is faced with a difficult economic situation," Singh said after Leader of the Opposition Arun Jaitley sought his response on the rupee hitting a life-time low.

"There are several causes (for the economic woes). I do not deny some domestic factors too are responsible," he said.

Listing some of the external factors that have impacted rupee and Indian economy, Singh said US monetary stance and problems created by tensions in Syria and its "inevitable consequences on oil prices" have played their role.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Crossed 5342 & 5372 as wrote yesterday. Now 5441 key resistance should be crossed for any further upmove, else nifty may once again turn down. Lets See.

>>> BHEL - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Happened Today <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes BHEL done second Target also.

>>> AXIS BANK <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes today Axis Bank Rocked, Still lot of upmove left. All our Client holding Long and part booked on first target as shown on chart. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Resistance 5324, 5372 & 5441

Dear All,



India will not be able to do much about the rupee's sharp fall, said Jim O'Neill, Former Chairman of Goldman Sachs AMC.

As rupee's record fall against the US dollar continues to hog the limelight, it has also lost ground and breached key levels against a host of other currencies including British pound, euro and Swiss franc.

Adding to rupee's woes, British pound today crossed Rs 106 level, euro went past Rs 92, Swiss franc touched Rs 75 mark, Canadian dollar was at Rs 65, Australian dollar at over Rs 60, while New Zealand dollar, Singapore dollar, Bruneian dollar and Libyan dinar crossed Rs 50 level.

Among even more expensive foreign currencies, one Kuwaiti dinar is now worth more than Rs 240, Bahraini Dinar over Rs 180, Omani rial has went past Rs 175 and Latvia Lat at Rs 130.

Against the most prominent foreign currency US dollar, the rupee has fallen to a record low of Rs 68.75.

An analysis of foreign exchange rates across the world shows that Kuwaiti dinar is the most expensive against the rupee at current level of close to Rs 243, followed by Bahraini dinar (Rs 182), Omani rial (Rs 178) and Latvian lat (Rs 130).

Among the major foreign currencies, British pound is the most expensive and hit a record high of Rs 106.91 this afternoon, followed by euro, Swiss franc, US dollar, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

The Asian economies have already been under stress on speculation that US Federal Reserve will sooner than later start curbing stimulus leading to money flowing out of these economies.

The government measure came in too late and were not been appreciated by the market. It forced the government to come out with host of steps in all directions. The measures seen as a desperate act ahead of general elections next year are proving counterproductive

The passage of Food Security Bill in the Lok Sabha couldn't have come at more inappropriate time. The market is worried that it will further burden the government's finance. It's a play of weak fundamentals and even weaker sentiment.

Meanwhile BNP Paribas has sharply cut India's GDP forecast to 3.7 percent for fiscal 2014 from 5.2 percent previously. The new forecast, if met, would mark India's lowest growth since fiscal 1992. According to BNP Paribas, RBI's cash draining measures have increased risks to economic growth at a time when the economy was already slowing sharply over the summer.

>>> NIFTY <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty unable to hold 5254 as said yesterday. Gap down opening on Nifty in the early morning trade wiped out all support. A Sharp recovery on the later part of the trade raise hope for the expiry tomorrow. Lets See.


>>> BHEL <<<
>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

BHEL - after breaking form the falling wedge, looking for a good upmove. Lets see.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Support 5254

Dear All,

FOOD SECURITY BILL (FSB) :-

Markets welcomed the Food Security Bill (FSB) cleared by the Lok Sabha with an over 600 points fall. Rupee kept on sliding with the FSB giving it a further push to breach 66 against the dollar. Even as politicians continue to pat their own back for clearing the bill, financial markets, which is a reflection of sentiment of the people who study numbers do not believe there is any reason to celebrate.

While there is no clear figure on the size of hole that the FSB would punch in the economy, general expectation is around Rs 130,000 crore. India’s fiscal deficit for 2012-13 stood at Rs 490,000 crore, which was equivalent to 4.9% of the GDP.

Just a day before the bill was cleared, rating agency Fitch warned about the dangers of a slipping fiscal deficit. Yet even after the bill was cleared, Finance Minister maintained that the red line of 4.8% of fiscal deficit will not be breached.

>>> NIFTY <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<

As shown on chart two alternatives pending before us for tomorrow trade. If breaks 5254 then 3rd wave should start with more fall. Else sub wave 2 should move up for wave c. Lets See.

>>> COAL INDIA - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<

As said yesterday Coal India made a good fall today.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<


>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<

Coal India achieved my first target at 260 and made a profit of Rs.17000. Now if 255 support as shown on chart, if breaks then fall should continue.

Monday, August 26, 2013

5562 Resistance

Dear All,

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

5562 looks like a crucial resistance. Cross above may give some more rally, Else fall should continue.

>>> COAL INDIA <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<


Coal India performed well today. Gave Short at 277, made a low of 267. Partial Profit Booked at Rs.10,000/-. As given on Chart I feel more downfall left as the corrective upmove over. Lets See.

>>> APOLLO TYRE <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen<<<

Apollo Tyre - Looks like a Pennant Break Out. Should move up form here onwards. Lets See!!!

Friday, August 23, 2013

Weekly Review - 26.08.2013

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - Weekly - As Updated Last Week <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> HAPPENED AND YET TO <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As wrote last week Nifty though fell down below 5380 or 50% Fib Level, managed to close above with a Hammer on weekly chart. 100 & 200 WMA also saved marginally. So there are chances of recovery next week.

>>> NIFTY - Hourly <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So far I have marked Hourly chart as 123 formation and if Next week Nifty able to cross and trade above 5493 then the fall must be marked as A-B-C and hence the rally must continue for a while.

>>> BANK Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


Bank Nifty almost completed its 5 wave downside, either its a ABC or 123 if give a break above the channel as shown on chart, no doubt may get a good short covering next week.

>>> BLOCK BUSTER CHART & PERFORMANCE LAST WEEK <<<

>>> HEXAWARE <<<


>>> KOTAK BANK <<<

> On 20th Aug 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


> On 21st Aug 2013 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> COAL INDIA <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> INDUSIND BANK <<<


>>> REC-LTD - Updated as on 22nd Aug 2013<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> ICICI BANK LTD <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> JP ASSOCIATES <<<
>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> PERFORMANCE <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Relief Rally To Continue

Dear All,


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


As per yesterdays fall I see todays rally as Wave 3 extension as marked as sub wave 2. But I here lot of unconfirmed news floating round the corner and if break above the Previous High 5502 then current sub waves become invalid and relief rally must continue.

>>> COAL INDIA - As Updated Yesterday <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<



>>> HAPPENED TODAY <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


Yes today re-entered Coal India - But hit the SL and bounce to my target. Any way Loss is a Loss.

>>> REC Ltd <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


Recltd made a IHS break out. Lets hope for a good bounce form here. We had a Long in this counter. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Rally Killed by Rupee


Dear All,


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


Unable to cross 5500 Nifty fell down due to rupee once again. Previous low 5307 broken seems like wave 3 started on the downside again. So relief rally short lived. Lets see.

>>> INDUS IND BANK <<<


>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Second Target also done on Indus Ind Bank.

>>> KOTAK BANK - As given Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Both Targets done today.

>>>COAL INDIA <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

My Clients have already Booked Coal India First Target. Still Now I feel if 254 is not broken then expect a good bounce once again. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Relief Rally on the Way !!!

Dear All,


>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


Relief rally on the way. If trades above 5417 should move to 5477,5530 and 5580. Lets See.

>>> HEXAWARE <<< - As Updated on 12th Aug, 2013 <

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hexaware broken the important channel support. Ready for next round of fall. We had a call on it with good profit.
>>> Kotak Bank <<<
>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Kotak Bank seems to have completed its 5 wave downside and getting ready for an good upmove. We had a call on it today with good profit.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Crisis Vs Re Vs Nifty

Dear All,

All my Last week analysis about possible bounce failed. Though many indicators kept moving on positive side Price continue to slide as there are lot of fear about the macro economic weakness.

Past 2 trading sessions Nifty has shaved almost 390 Points form a high of 5750 to 5360, this is almost 6-7% fall. Yes sure I did not expected this sudden fall. Almost my last 15 days profit has been eroded in this fall.

To come to the conclusion Fast falling rupee and Widening CAD - has raised a new debate that Is this crisis, is same as happened at 1991 ???

RBI looks helpless as all its efforts to stem rupee failed and situation seems to be out of control.

So I think soon Indian govt may look for an aid from IMF ??? So If I compare India's Situation to Greece !!!! some may say its too much !!! But if the situation continue like this no doubt we may soon fall in to a big crises than any other Europe countries faced few months before.

But one this is sure that the credibility of RBI and Govt is at all time low which may heavily increase selling pressure in coming days.


>>> Nifty - Weekly <<<


>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Weekly chart suggest 5380 as 50% Fib Level and Channel Support also there. So very important for this week to hold 5380 on Nifty.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<


>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart - Broken my earlier channel support and fall seems like 1-2 as on chart. Now 5380 if broken then 5280 and 5150 may open doors. Lets See.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Weekly Review - 19.08.2013

Dear All,

Stock market on Friday — the biggest drop in about two years — on fears of capital controls being imposed by the Reserve Bank of India and indicators of slowing economic growth has fuelled concerns about a potential sovereign downgrade.


Fears of Downgrade :-

Besides, measures by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to support the currency have failed to stem the fall of the rupee, implying that interest rates may remain elevated for a longer time, the agency said. India's sovereign rating assigned by Moody's is Baa3 with a stable outlook. This is the lowest notch in the investment-grade rating.

Any further downgrade could push the sovereign ratings to a junk status.

RBI Measures to Stem Ruppe :-

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced additional measures to support the Indian rupee by stemming foreign exchange outflows by Indian residents. On Friday, the rupee plunged to lifetime low of 62.03 before recovering to close at a record low of 61.65 against the dollar.

Overseas direct investment (ODI) by Indian companies has been cut three-fourths, 100% from 400%, making it more difficult for local corporates to buy overseas assets. RBI reduced the limit for remittances made by Resident Individuals, under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS Scheme), to $75,000 from $200,000 per financial year.

RBI data shows that even after dollar sales to the extent of $2.25 billion in June, the rupee weakened by almost 5% during the month. The sale made by RBI in June was the highest in almost one-and-a-half years.

Rumours of Capital Control :-

Meanwhile, the Government has clarified that it has no intention to impose capital controls and denied market rumours of a proposal to increase margin money on short-selling of shares.

Lets go to Technical's ...

>>> Nifty - As Updated on Last Weekly Review <<<


>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote Nifty may bounced from 5565. Completed wave (a) near 5754.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<


>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Now Wave (c) should start next week, with an upmove

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<


>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<


>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated on 14th Aug, 2013 <<<



>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On 14th Aug updated though bank nifty looks like a break out, till facing resistance from 100dma and 10108.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<



>>>Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Attached is a 5 mins chart for a clear vision on how Bank Nifty should move up from here onwards.

>>> Performance <<<
>>>Click the image to see on full screen <<<