BREXIT Vs NIFTY

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wait for BREXIT

Resistance 8245 & 8270

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart suggest 8245 as a important resistance. Break below 8213 or 8206 may invite some pressure from bear side. RSI must confirm the trend.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

RSI confirmed the correction mode, Price yet to break and confirm the triangle - Channel. Cheers!!!

Resistance @ 8245 & 8265-70

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

its a complicated once again. Inspite of Rexit - Market able to hold and move up along with global cues. Price must cross above 8245 and 8265-70 for a good upmove. Lets wait and see. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 20th June, 2016

Dear All,

>>> REXIT <<<

India's "rock star" RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, feted by foreign investors but under pressure from political opponents at home, stunned government officials and colleagues on Saturday by announcing he would step down after just one three-year term.

Rajan, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is held in high esteem by policymakers and investors at home and abroad for overhauling the way the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) operates.

But he has faced mounting criticism from a faction within Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party for keeping interest rates high and over a perception that he had begun to stray into politics.

In a letter to RBI staff, Rajan said he planned to return to academia, even as he noted two of his actions - the creation of a monetary policy committee to set interest rates and the clean-up of the heavily indebted banking sector - remained unfinished.

"While I was open to seeing these developments through, on due reflection, and after consultation with the government, I want to share with you that I will be returning to academia when my term as Governor ends on Sept. 4, 2016," Rajan wrote.

"I will, of course, always be available to serve my country when needed."

It will be the first time since 1992 that an RBI governor has departed after a single three-year term.

That the larger Sangh Parivar was unhappy with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan for his views on issues such as “intolerance” was no secret. The die was cast when Subramanian Swamy, a Rajya Sabha member from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), wasn’t reined in when he went as far as calling Rajan’s policies “anti-national in intent”. There were also severe difference of opinion between Rajan and those in the government, including in the Finance Ministry bureaucracy, on the RBI’s monetary policy, particularly on the issue of the central bank’s refusal to lower interest rates.

People in the government and industry had complained about Rajan’s obstinacy in not reducing interest rates, especially when the oil import bill was low and other macro-economic indicators were suitable. Those in the government and industry were looking at the RBI to reduce interest rates to spur growth in real estate and the MSME sector. A spurt in these two sectors, or so it was argued, would have contributed to job growth – one of the principal planks of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2014 Lok Sabha campaign.

But the equity market may only see collateral damage. The biggest hit, experts believe, will be on the currency market, which is already bracing for some major risks in the coming months.

"If Rajan is not continuing, the biggest risk will be to the Indian bond and currency Markets," Christopher Wood said in the Fear and Greed report back in May.

The biggest issue would be the redemption of the Foreign Currency Non-Residential (FCNR) bonds issued by Governor Rajan back in October 2013 to protect the rupee from its worst crisis in decades.

Those bonds are due for redemption and the currency market is due to face an outflow of $20 billion, which will put intense pressure on the rupee.

However, according to one source privy to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP’s ideological parent, and also the government’s views on economic issues, the departure of Rajan from the RBI is an end to “outside interference” in policy making. The RSS might exult at Rajan's exit as its triumph but the source said Rajan’s views on intolerance were only the last straw. The source likened his exit to one of the first decisions of the Narendra Modi government – that of kicking out 350 consultants who during the UPA years advised the government on various issues of planning and policy making. Another source went as far as to say that Rajan demoralised government owned banks and destroyed the economy, and his departure was a signal to crony capitalists supported by the previous UPA government.

In his first comments after the development, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the government respected Rajan’s decision and a successor will be appointed soon. State Bank of India chief Arundhati Bhattacharya is being looked at as a possible candidate.

There are seven candidates on a long list to replace Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, a senior government official told Reuters on Saturday.

The candidates are Vijay Kelkar, Rakesh Mohan, Ashok Lahiri, Urjit Patel, Arundhati Bhattacharya, Subir Gokarn and Ashok Chawla, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Of the field, the two best known are Patel, now a deputy governor of the RBI, and Bhattacharya, who is chair of State Bank of India, the country's largest bank

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Resisted near 8206 or 61.8% retrace shows a possible downside for wave c.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

MA & 61.8% retrace indicates a possible correction.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty should break again the channel support for a fall.

>>> Maruti - Posted Earlier last Week <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier we have posted maruti - wrote about a possible correction.

>>> Maruti - Yet to Correct <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Below 4060-62 - More fall likely. We are short from 4150.

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Kindly send your queries about service to niftyforall@yahoo.com.

Resistance @ 8160,8180 & 8206

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its a complicated and volatile move on nifty, as yesterday its a 100 Plus move and today a gap down with 100 minus move shows the strength of the volatile. Seems like price moving as abc-x-abc. and we are in the last leg of abc. If so, price may get resisted near 8160,8180 or 8206.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

17700 & 17745 - Resistance.

>>> Maruti - As Posted on 14th June, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have wrote on Monday - about possible upmove on maruti - See what happened.

>>> Maruti - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As wrote on monday - Price raised above 4168 and started coming down today, Stock may correct more if - Price breaks below 4062. We are holding our short from 4150. Yen Movement - highly affect the stock movement. Lets wait and see. Cheers!!!

Resistance @ 8206 & 8264

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price negated some alternatives above 8180 and hit 8206. We have Exited our Shorts created at 8235. Some indicator have reversed and price may continue to raise, if Price trades above 8206, may test 8264.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Like Nifty - Nifty Bank Also made a sudden rally above 17730 & 17760 - which may find its resistance @ 17940. If trades above 17940 - More rally not ruled out.

>>> AXIS BANK - Posted on 13th June, 2016 <<<

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Wrote on Monday - Axis Bank may correct.

>>> AXIS BANK - Profit Booked <<<

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Have booked our Shorts on Axis Bank - with 10,000 Profit, since the Price not moving as expected. We may re-enter or ignore - as per price movement in coming days.

Resistance @ 8135 & 8156

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price may try to retrace as a relief rally - If crosses 8135, can test 8156.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

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Bank Nifty May Face its resistance @ 17750.

>>> Maruti - Hourly - As Posted on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted on Weekly Review - Maruti - With a Bearish View - See the follow up..

>>> Maruti - Follow Up - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Maruti making a complicated move, with a heavy volatile trade. Support 4100 and 4080 - s'd break for more fall. Else Price may retrace 4150 and 4168. Lets wait and See. Cheers!!!

Next Resistance @ 8128, 8142 & 8168

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After making a low of 8064, Price managed to recover form day's low. If price able to cross above 8128, then may test 8148 and 8168, before resuming next fall. We are still holding our short.

>>> Axis Bank - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Axis Bank - Price made a rally as A-B-C and Wave C retraced almost 161.8% of Wave A. A wedge like pattern, Broken down - Shows a correction unavoidable. We have short position and holding for a good fall. CheerS!!!

Weekly Review - 13th June, 2016

Dear All,

Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of key macro economic data and the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meet. Meanwhile, worries that Britain, in a referendum on June 23, may vote not to be a part of the European Union would continue to weigh on sentiment.

The Reserve Bank of India at its bi-monthly policy review early this week kept key policy rates unchanged amid inflation concerns but maintained an 'accomodative' monetary policy stance going forward. The repo or the repurchase rate was unchanged at 6.50% on the back of higher food inflation and amid expectations of a rate action by the US Federal Reserve. The central bank has also kept the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) unchanged at 4%.

Meanwhile, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for April was weaker-than-expected after it contracted to -0.8% as compared to 0.1% in March 2016 with manufacturing sector contracting to -3.1% compared to -1.2% in the previous month.

Outlook

Apart from the global events such as the US Fed meet, macro economic data such as the wholesale price index and consumer price index for May 2016 along with the progress of the monsoon will dictate market trend.

Investors will also be keenly awaiting the commentary from the US Fed at the conclusion of its two-day policy meet which ends on Wednesday, June 15.

Further, announcements by the Indian Meteorological Department regarding the progress of monsson will also be in focus.



>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

An Inverted Hammer formed near the Key Resistance Zone - Should really be a cause to concern for Bulls. One should take care of their longs. A flow of bad news from any side may trigger fresh sell off from all front. Above 8290 Bulls may try to roar again.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price unable to cross above the Channel and Hold above 8268 - Signals Bearishness. We have short Position and looking for a Good Correction.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly chart suggest - end of wave 3 or C. Hence a possible correction till 8075 or near 8006. We have short position from 8235 and holding for a good correction.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Looks like bank Nifty end its rally near 18050 and started falling. Below 17800 may test 17650 or even 17410 soon.

>>> Maruti - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Maruti - We are short from 4150 and holding for a good correction. Price if breaks the trend line or 4100 - More fall likely.

>>> N4A <<<

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Support 8200 & 8156

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

8200 a Good Support, Break below may test 8156 as per above chart.

>>> Nifty Bank Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the Wedge and RSI - shows a Caution sign from Bear again. Lets wait for more confirmation. Cheers!!!

Above 8290 - Upmove to Resume

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its a Day of consolidation again. Price formed a Triangle, must break out of it for next move.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

18000 as Hurdle. Break above may give more rally. Lets wait and watch. cheers!!!

Resistance @ 8290 & 8320

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price continue the upward journey, after RBI Policy. Next Resistance to watch 8290,8320 and 8350. Cross above these levels may give fresh rally again.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price resisted near 18000, Cross above may test 18150+ and more. Cheers!!!

8180 & 8130 Crucial Support.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Await for Twist and Turn from the most important personalities - Yellen & Rajan. Any Surprise or Un Expected words from these people's mouth may trigger a Big move on either side of the Market world wide. Chart looks like some warning sign from Bear. Lets wait and see.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

RSI on a Negative Div, makes a cautious view on BN. Lets wait for Actions @ RBI's Day. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 06th June, 2016

Dear All,

Volatile - Is not an End :-

Volatility refers to the upward and downward movement of price. The more prices fluctuate, the more volatile the market is, and vice versa.

The volatility in stock markets is one of the principle reasons why private investors sell out at the wrong time and often fail to benefit from the natural appreciation in stock markets over time.

If you are to save and invest through the stock markets you must accept that volatility in markets is normal, and an understanding of why markets tend to be so volatile can alleviate many of the fears that you might experience when markets enter a volatile phase.

After all, volatility is not the same thing as risk, and if you succumb to volatility by selling out under pressure you may take a permanent loss when all you were experiencing was a temporary decline in values.

The principle causes of volatility are :-

The economy is volatile and experiences periods of contraction as well as expansion.

A contraction in the economy leads to lower revenues for businesses, and with fixed overheads this, in turn, amplifies the reduction in corporate earnings.

Furthermore, stock markets are emotional and over-react relative to the likely change in these underlying business fundamentals.

What Causes Short Term Volatility?

Perceptions and emotions move individual stock prices and the overall market in the near term. If investors feel that good times are ahead for the economy and/or an individual company, the prices of those securities will probably go up until that perception changes. Investors’ perceptions and emotions are heavily influenced by news events. So when the government reports one day that unemployment is dropping, the market could do quite well that day.

But if another report is released the very next day bemoaning the price of energy or an increase in inflation, the market might get spooked and decline. Just as there are quite a few news stories that are released throughout the day there many different forces at work which move the market and stock prices at any given time.

Nobody knows exactly which news item moves the market in any particular day but investors definitely fall victim to the herd mentality. Once a few big players react strongly to a story, everyone piles on. So if something happens that makes people think or feel differently about the market as a whole or an individual company, the prices in question can really move over the short run.

How to Reduce the Affects of Stock Market Volatility

1. Employ Fundamental Value Analysis

The kind of stock market volatility you really want to avoid is downside volatility. All major market tops coincide with high valuations. This makes fundamental value strategies an important part of investing. These tools can guide you away from over priced investments that are prevalent at market tops.

2. Have a Maximum Drawdown Plan

Have a maximum drawdown policy as a part of your risk management plan. A large part of your asset allocation strategy should be based on how you will manage and minimize a portfolio drawdown. It is large portfolio drawdowns that destroy your long term returns.

3. Use a Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

A fixed or strategic asset allocation makes little sense because we know valuation is the biggest determinant of your long term investment returns. Once you are empowered with the knowledge from fundamental value analysis and have mapped out your risk management plan you can choose an appropriate asset allocation.
With a tactical asset allocation you have the flexibility to make allocation decisions that are based on maximizing your probability of positive outcomes. That means having ability to allocate more aggressively to under valued assets and avoid assets that do not provide a margin of safety.


>>> Nifty Weekly - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote - Price above 8200 - may test 8250 - an important Resistance as per Weekly Chart.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Tested 8250. Bulls must cross above this level to confirm its strength.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wave C retraced almost 61.8% of wave A. Above 8268 - Cross above this levels - More rally possible.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price must cross channel and 61.8% of retrace to confirm the strength of the bull.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Seems like a 1-5 sub wave completed and channel acts as a resistance.

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